Melbourne Long Range Weather Forecast




Experimental Melbourne CBD Long Range Weather Forecast

Based Upon Statistical Interpretation of NOAA Data

(http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready.html)

NOAA Data At: 10am, 1-8-2020

Minimum temperatures are for the night/early morning, maximum temperatures are for the daytime,
whilst precipitation amounts and probabilities are for the 24 hours from midnight.

Temperatures for the Melbourne observation site (at Olympic Park) are in brackets.



THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR SEP/OCT/NOV:

NCEP's Depiction of the Global Sea Surface Temperature Evolution

The average Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index for the past week is -0.09 (-0.17 standard deviations), the average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the past 90 days is -0.27, the average SOI for the past 30 days is 5.82, and the latest recorded bimonthly Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is -0.73. The expected MEI, adjusted by the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index and also by recent values of the SOI, for JUL/AUG is -0.34. Such a value of MEI indicates a sea surface temperature distribution that corresponds to a very weak La Niña. This suggests:

RAINFALL: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that total SEP/OCT/NOV rainfall will be above normal in all Victorian Districts.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that average SEP/OCT/NOV overnight temperatures will be above normal in the NORTHERN COUNTRY, NORTH CENTRAL, NORTHEAST, EAST GIPPSLAND, WEST GIPPSLAND and WESTERN Districts, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that overnight temperatures will be below normal in the MALLEE District, but there is little indication as to whether overnight temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that average SEP/OCT/NOV daytime temperatures will be below normal in all Victorian Districts.


Day & DateMorningAfternoonMin
Temp
(deg C)
Max
Temp
(deg C)
Precip
Amount
(mm)
Precip
Prob
(%)
9am Wind/
3pm Wind
Melb Apt
(km/hr)
Sun-2-8-2020Sunny.
Partly Cloudy.
10.2
(9.9)
18
(17.5)
013N 20
N 25
Gusts55
Mon-3-8-2020Cloudy.
Partly Cloudy.
8.7
(8.6)
16.7
(16.1)
037NW 12
WNW 12
Gusts35
Tue-4-8-2020Drizzle.
Cloudy.
6.5
(6.8)
11.9
(11)
2.969NNW 15
WNW 15
Gusts45
Wed-5-8-2020Shower.
Shower.
6.1
(6.4)
13
(11.6)
3.782WSW 25
SW 25
Gusts50
Thu-6-8-2020Drizzle.
Partly Cloudy.
6.4
(6.3)
13.3
(12.3)
0.455WSW 8
SSW 12
Gusts30
Fri-7-8-2020Possible Shower.
Possible Shower.
4.5
(4.3)
13.8
(13)
048SSW 8
S 15
Gusts30
Sat-8-8-2020Mist.
Cloudy.
6.9
(6.6)
15.3
(14.3)
029SSE 15
SSE 25
Gusts45
Sun-9-8-2020Rain.
Rain.
7.1
(7)
13.9
(12.9)
177SW 10
S 20
Gusts35
Mon-10-8-2020Fog.
Sunny.
6.9
(6.7)
13.1
(12.1)
017WNW 5
S 8
Gusts20
Tue-11-8-2020Sunny.
Sunny.
4
(3.7)
16
(15.3)
01N 12
N 20
Gusts40
Wed-12-8-2020Shower.
Rain.
7.8
(7.3)
16.8
(16.5)
3.774N 10
NNE 20
Gusts40
Thu-13-8-2020Shower.
Shower.
9.7
(9.3)
17.9
(17.2)
0.960N 5
SSE 8
Gusts25
Fri-14-8-2020Shower.
Rain.
10.5
(9.8)
18.4
(18.1)
3.778N 10
NNE 20
Gusts40
Sat-15-8-2020Rain.
Thunder.
9
(8.5)
13.7
(13.6)
7.491NNE 10
NNE 15
Gusts40

The Weather Icons

Acknowledgement: Bureau of Meteorology & World Meteorological Organisation

Sunny
Dry
Haze
Mist
Fog
Partly Cloudy
Cloudy
Windy
Dust

Possible Shower
Drizzle
Shower
Snow
Rain
Thunder
Cyclone