Melbourne Long Range Weather Forecast




Experimental Melbourne CBD Long Range Weather Forecast

Based Upon Statistical Interpretation of NOAA Data

(http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready.html)

NOAA Data At: 10am, 1-10-2020

Minimum temperatures are for the night/early morning, maximum temperatures are for the daytime,
whilst precipitation amounts and probabilities are for the 24 hours from midnight.

Temperatures for the Melbourne observation site (at Olympic Park) are in brackets.



THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR NOV/DEC/JAN:

NCEP's Depiction of the Global Sea Surface Temperature Evolution

The average Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index for the past week is -0.45 (-0.87 standard deviations), the average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the past 90 days is 7.4, the average SOI for the past 30 days (click here for a picture of recent trends) is 10.63, and the latest recorded bimonthly Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is -0.99. The expected MEI, adjusted by the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index and also by recent values of the SOI, for SEP/OCT is -0.88. Such a value of MEI indicates a sea surface temperature distribution that corresponds to a weak La Niña. This suggests:

RAINFALL: There is a slightly enhanced chance that total NOV/DEC/JAN rainfall will be above normal in the NORTHERN COUNTRY, NORTHEAST, EAST GIPPSLAND and WEST GIPPSLAND Districts, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that rainfall will be above normal in the MALLEE, NORTH CENTRAL and CENTRAL Districts, and there is little indication as to whether rainfall will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that average NOV/DEC/JAN overnight temperatures will be above normal in the WEST GIPPSLAND District, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that overnight temperatures will be below normal in the MALLEE and WIMMERA Districts, and there is little indication as to whether overnight temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is a slightly enhanced chance that average NOV/DEC/JAN daytime temperatures will be below normal in the MALLEE, WIMMERA, NORTHERN COUNTRY, NORTH CENTRAL, NORTHEAST, EAST GIPPSLAND, and WEST GIPPSLAND Districts, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that average NOV/DEC/JAN daytime temperatures will be below normal in the WESTERN DISTRICT, and there is little indication as to whether overnight temperatures will be below, near or above normal in the other Victorian District, the CENTRAL District.


Day & DateMorningAfternoonMin
Temp
(deg C)
Max
Temp
(deg C)
Precip
Amount
(mm)
Precip
Prob
(%)
9am Wind/
3pm Wind
Melb Apt
(km/hr)
Fri-2-10-2020Windy.
Windy.
13.4
(13)
26
(25.6)
05N 40
N 35
Gusts70
Sat-3-10-2020Windy.
Windy.
19.3
(18.6)
28
(27.8)
06N 40
N 35
Gusts70
Sun-4-10-2020Rain.
Thunder.
20.3
(19.5)
27.5
(27.5)
4.895N 35
N 30
Gusts65
Mon-5-10-2020Rain.
Rain.
8.8
(8.7)
16.2
(14.9)
7.380SSW 15
S 20
Gusts40
Tue-6-10-2020Rain.
Thunder.
9.6
(9.1)
19.6
(18.7)
6.782ENE 5
S 15
Gusts40
Wed-7-10-2020Rain.
Thunder.
10.2
(9.8)
20.3
(20)
8.494N 35
N 30
Gusts65
Thu-8-10-2020Rain.
Thunder.
11.2
(11)
17.9
(17.4)
4.684N 25
NW 25
Gusts60
Fri-9-10-2020Partly Cloudy.
Sunny.
8.7
(8.6)
18.2
(17.3)
010W 12
SW 12
Gusts35
Sat-10-10-2020Windy.
Windy.
9.7
(9.3)
22.7
(22.6)
016N 40
N 40
Gusts75
Sun-11-10-2020Rain.
Thunder.
16.4
(15.9)
21.2
(20.9)
4.588N 25
NW 25
Gusts60
Mon-12-10-2020Possible Shower.
Possible Shower.
10.7
(10.7)
16.1
(14.9)
042WSW 25
SSW 25
Gusts60
Tue-13-10-2020Partly Cloudy.
Cloudy.
10
(9.8)
17.2
(16.1)
021SW 15
SSW 20
Gusts45
Wed-14-10-2020Partly Cloudy.
Sunny.
9.8
(9.4)
20.9
(19.8)
08E 5
SSE 10
Gusts30
Thu-15-10-2020Sunny.
Partly Cloudy.
11.2
(10.7)
26.2
(25.3)
08N 12
N 15
Gusts40

The Weather Icons

Acknowledgement: Bureau of Meteorology & World Meteorological Organisation

Sunny
Dry
Haze
Mist
Fog
Partly Cloudy
Cloudy
Windy
Dust

Possible Shower
Drizzle
Shower
Snow
Rain
Thunder
Cyclone