Experimental Melbourne CBD Long Range Weather Forecast

Based Upon Statistical Interpretation of NOAA Data

(http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready.html)

NOAA Data At: 10am, 3-11-2022

Minimum temperatures are for the night/early morning, maximum temperatures are for the daytime,
whilst precipitation amounts and probabilities are for the 24 hours from midnight.

Temperatures for the Melbourne observation site (at Olympic Park) are in brackets.

Day & DateMorningAfternoonMin
Temp
(deg C)
Max
Temp
(deg C)
Precip
Amount
(mm)
Precip
Prob
(%)
9am Wind/
3pm Wind
Melb Apt
(km/hr)
Fri-4-11-2022Partly Cloudy.
Sunny.
8.7
(8.4)
20.9
(19.7)
07WSW 8
S 10
Gusts30
Sat-5-11-2022Partly Cloudy.
Shower.
8.8
(8.3)
24.8
(23.8)
2.152NNE 8
NNE 15
Gusts35
Sun-6-11-2022Partly Cloudy.
Shower.
11.5
(10.9)
26.8
(25.9)
2.353NNE 8
NNE 15
Gusts35
Mon-7-11-2022Partly Cloudy.
Thunder.
12.9
(12.2)
27.9
(26.7)
3.751NNE 8
NNE 15
Gusts35
Tue-8-11-2022Cloudy.
Shower.
15.5
(14.7)
29.8
(29.3)
1.355N 25
N 30
Gusts60
Wed-9-11-2022Shower.
Shower.
21.3
(20.3)
29.6
(29.1)
1.861N 25
N 30
Gusts60
Thu-10-11-2022Shower.
Thunder.
21.2
(20.3)
27.7
(26.9)
4.161N 15
N 20
Gusts45
Fri-11-11-2022Partly Cloudy.
Thunder.
16.8
(15.9)
30.6
(29.7)
1.753N 15
N 20
Gusts45
Sat-12-11-2022Rain.
Thunder.
19.4
(18.4)
29.1
(28.8)
5.886NNE 25
N 30
Gusts65
Sun-13-11-2022Shower.
Thunder.
17.4
(16.8)
23.4
(22.3)
4.667NW 12
SSW 15
Gusts45
Mon-14-11-2022Cloudy.
Cloudy.
12.4
(12)
24.8
(23.7)
035N 10
N 15
Gusts40
Tue-15-11-2022Partly Cloudy.
Sunny.
12.9
(12.5)
22.1
(20.8)
011SW 8
S 10
Gusts30
Wed-16-11-2022Partly Cloudy.
Thunder.
13.7
(13.1)
25.9
(24.8)
7.356NNE 8
NNE 15
Gusts35
Thu-17-11-2022Rain.
Thunder.
19.3
(18.6)
24.8
(24)
13.292NNW 15
WNW 15
Gusts50

The Weather Icons

Acknowledgement: Bureau of Meteorology & World Meteorological Organisation

Sunny
Dry
Haze
Mist
Fog
Partly Cloudy
Cloudy
Windy
Dust

Possible Shower
Drizzle
Shower
Snow
Rain
Thunder
Cyclone



THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR DEC/JAN/FEB:

NCEP's Depiction of the Global Sea Surface Temperature Evolution

The average Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index for the past week is -0.54 (-1.04 standard deviations), the average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the past 90 days is 15.01, the average SOI for the past 30 days (click here for a picture of recent trends) is 18.23, and the latest recorded bimonthly Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is -1.78. The expected MEI, adjusted by the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index and also by recent values of the SOI, for OCT/NOV is -1.34. Such a value of MEI indicates a sea surface temperature distribution that corresponds to a La Niña. This suggests:

RAINFALL: There is an enhanced chance that total DEC/JAN/FEB rainfall will be above normal in the NORTHERN COUNTRY and NORTHEAST Districts, there is a slightly enhanced chance that rainfall will be above normal in the WEST GIPPSLAND District, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that rainfall will be above normal in the NORTH CENTRAL and EAST GIPPSLAND Districts, but there is little indication as to whether rainfall will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: There is an enhanced chance that average DEC/JAN/FEB overnight temperatures will be below normal in the WIMMERA District, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that overnight temperatures will be above normal in the NORTH CENTRAL, EAST GIPPSLAND, WEST GIPPSLAND and CENTRAL Districts, but there is little indication as to whether overnight temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is an enhanced chance that average DEC/JAN/FEB daytime temperatures will be below normal in the NORTHERN COUNTRY and WEST GIPPSLAND Districts, there is a slightly enhanced chance that daytime temperatures will be below normal in the NORTHEAST District, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that daytime temperatures will be above normal in the CENTRAL District, but there is little indication as to whether daytime temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.