Experimental Melbourne CBD Long Range Weather Forecast

Based Upon Statistical Interpretation of NOAA Data

(http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready.html)

NOAA Data At: 10am, 4-8-2022

Minimum temperatures are for the night/early morning, maximum temperatures are for the daytime,
whilst precipitation amounts and probabilities are for the 24 hours from midnight.

Temperatures for the Melbourne observation site (at Olympic Park) are in brackets.

Day & DateMorningAfternoonMin
Temp
(deg C)
Max
Temp
(deg C)
Precip
Amount
(mm)
Precip
Prob
(%)
9am Wind/
3pm Wind
Melb Apt
(km/hr)
Fri-5-8-2022Rain.
Rain.
12.1
(12)
15.3
(15.6)
3.793N 30
NNW 30
Gusts65
Sat-6-8-2022Rain.
Rain.
10
(9.9)
13.9
(13.6)
397NW 12
W 15
Gusts40
Sun-7-8-2022Rain.
Rain.
8.6
(8.5)
13.4
(12.4)
1.992WSW 12
SSW 15
Gusts35
Mon-8-8-2022Possible Shower.
Partly Cloudy.
8
(7.8)
14.1
(12.9)
049SW 5
S 15
Gusts25
Tue-9-8-2022Possible Shower.
Partly Cloudy.
7
(6.8)
13.2
(12.2)
042WNW 5
S 8
Gusts20
Wed-10-8-2022Sunny.
Sunny.
3.7
(3.4)
15.2
(14.5)
01N 12
N 20
Gusts40
Thu-11-8-2022Partly Cloudy.
Shower.
6.8
(6.3)
16.9
(16.5)
1.552N 10
NNE 20
Gusts40
Fri-12-8-2022Partly Cloudy.
Shower.
10
(9.3)
16
(16.2)
7.656N 10
NNE 20
Gusts50
Sat-13-8-2022Shower.
Rain.
12.9
(12.4)
18
(17.7)
3.471N 20
N 25
Gusts55
Sun-14-8-2022Partly Cloudy.
Sunny.
9.1
(8.8)
17
(16.1)
06NNW 8
NNW 5
Gusts25
Mon-15-8-2022Sunny.
Sunny.
7
(6.6)
18.1
(17.6)
01N 20
N 25
Gusts55
Tue-16-8-2022Shower.
Rain.
11.3
(10.9)
16.3
(16.4)
3.370N 30
NNW 30
Gusts65
Wed-17-8-2022Shower.
Shower.
10.5
(9.9)
18.2
(18.1)
2.669N 20
N 25
Gusts55
Thu-18-8-2022Rain.
Thunder.
13
(12.4)
14.6
(14.6)
1695NNE 10
NNE 15
Gusts40

The Weather Icons

Acknowledgement: Bureau of Meteorology & World Meteorological Organisation

Sunny
Dry
Haze
Mist
Fog
Partly Cloudy
Cloudy
Windy
Dust

Possible Shower
Drizzle
Shower
Snow
Rain
Thunder
Cyclone



THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR SEP/OCT/NOV:

NCEP's Depiction of the Global Sea Surface Temperature Evolution

The average Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index for the past week is -0.88 (-1.69 standard deviations), the average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the past 90 days is 14.67, the average SOI for the past 30 days (click here for a picture of recent trends) is 9.13, and the latest recorded bimonthly Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is -1.95. The expected MEI, adjusted by the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index and also by recent values of the SOI, for JUL/AUG is -1.58. Such a value of MEI indicates a sea surface temperature distribution that corresponds to a La Niña. This suggests:

RAINFALL: There is an enhanced chance that total SEP/OCT/NOV rainfall will be above normal in all Victorian Districts.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: There is an enhanced chance that average SEP/OCT/NOV overnight temperatures will be above normal in the NORTHERN COUNTRY and NORTHEAST Districts, there is a slightly enhanced chance that overnight temperatures will be above normal in the NORTH CENTRAL and WESTERN Districts, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that overnight temperatures will be above normal in the EAST GIPPSLAND and WEST GIPPSLAND Districts, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that overnight temperatures will be below normal in the MALLEE District, but there is little indication as to whether overnight temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is an enhanced chance that average SEP/OCT/NOV daytime temperatures will be below normal in the MALLEE, WIMMERA, NORTHERN COUNTRY, NORTH CENTRAL, NORTHEAST, WEST GIPPSLAND, CENTRAL and WESTERN Districts, there is a slightly enhanced chance that daytime temperatures will be below normal in the other Victorian District, EAST GIPPSLAND.