Experimental Melbourne CBD Long Range Weather Forecast

Based Upon Statistical Interpretation of NOAA Data

(http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready.html)

NOAA Data At: 10am, 4-5-2021

Minimum temperatures are for the night/early morning, maximum temperatures are for the daytime,
whilst precipitation amounts and probabilities are for the 24 hours from midnight.

Temperatures for the Melbourne observation site (at Olympic Park) are in brackets.

Day & DateMorningAfternoonMin
Temp
(deg C)
Max
Temp
(deg C)
Precip
Amount
(mm)
Precip
Prob
(%)
9am Wind/
3pm Wind
Melb Apt
(km/hr)
Wed-5-5-2021Fog.
Sunny.
9.3
(8.9)
18.4
(17.2)
05SSE 10
S 15
Gusts35
Thu-6-5-2021Fog.
Sunny.
10.9
(10.4)
19.3
(18.4)
06SSE 10
S 15
Gusts35
Fri-7-5-2021Sunny.
Partly Cloudy.
13.9
(13.5)
21.4
(20.9)
010N 15
NNW 15
Gusts40
Sat-8-5-2021Partly Cloudy.
Cloudy.
12.6
(12.4)
18
(17.3)
034WSW 15
SSW 20
Gusts40
Sun-9-5-2021Partly Cloudy.
Cloudy.
9.4
(9.1)
19.1
(18.7)
025N 20
N 15
Gusts45
Mon-10-5-2021Rain.
Rain.
12.7
(12.5)
17.4
(17)
5.995WNW 15
WSW 15
Gusts40
Tue-11-5-2021Rain.
Rain.
11.1
(11.3)
16.3
(15.6)
891WNW 20
W 25
Gusts55
Wed-12-5-2021Rain.
Rain.
11.6
(11.5)
16.2
(15.3)
2.392WSW 25
SW 25
Gusts55
Thu-13-5-2021Fog.
Sunny.
9.7
(9.4)
15.1
(14.3)
016WSW 5
S 10
Gusts25
Fri-14-5-2021Drizzle.
Partly Cloudy.
9.6
(9.3)
15.9
(15.2)
1.356SSE 5
S 12
Gusts25
Sat-15-5-2021Rain.
Rain.
9.4
(9.3)
14.5
(13.2)
1.889WSW 25
SW 25
Gusts55
Sun-16-5-2021Cloudy.
Cloudy.
9.2
(9.1)
14.9
(14.5)
037WNW 15
WSW 15
Gusts40
Mon-17-5-2021Rain.
Rain.
12.4
(12.2)
15.2
(14.1)
3.490SSW 12
S 20
Gusts40
Tue-18-5-2021Rain.
Rain.
8.5
(8.6)
14.3
(13.3)
294WSW 25
SW 25
Gusts55

The Weather Icons

Acknowledgement: Bureau of Meteorology & World Meteorological Organisation

Sunny
Dry
Haze
Mist
Fog
Partly Cloudy
Cloudy
Windy
Dust

Possible Shower
Drizzle
Shower
Snow
Rain
Thunder
Cyclone



THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR JUN/JUL/AUG:

NCEP's Depiction of the Global Sea Surface Temperature Evolution

The average Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index for the past week is 0.32 (0.62 standard deviations), the average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the past 90 days is 3.92, the average SOI for the past 30 days is 0.1, and the latest recorded bimonthly Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is -0.79. The expected MEI, adjusted by the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index and also by recent values of the SOI, for APR/MAY is 0.06. Such a value of MEI indicates a sea surface temperature distribution that corresponds to neither a La Niña nor an El Niño. This suggests:

RAINFALL: There is an enhanced chance that average JUN/JUL/AUG total rainfall will be close to normal in the WIMMERA and EAST GIPPSLAND Districts, but there is little indication as to whether rainfall will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: There is an enhanced chance that average JUN/JUL/AUG overnight temperatures will be close to normal in the MALLEE, NORTH CENTRAL, NORTHEAST, WEST GIPPSLAND and WESTERN Districts, but there is little indication as to whether overnight temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is an enhanced chance that average JUN/JUL/AUG daytime temperatures will be close to normal in the WIMMERA and WESTERN Districts, but there is little indication as to whether daytime temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.