Experimental Melbourne CBD Long Range Weather Forecast

Based Upon Statistical Interpretation of NOAA Data

(http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready.html)

NOAA Data At: 10am, 6-4-2021

Minimum temperatures are for the night/early morning, maximum temperatures are for the daytime,
whilst precipitation amounts and probabilities are for the 24 hours from midnight.

Temperatures for the Melbourne observation site (at Olympic Park) are in brackets.

Day & DateMorningAfternoonMin
Temp
(deg C)
Max
Temp
(deg C)
Precip
Amount
(mm)
Precip
Prob
(%)
9am Wind/
3pm Wind
Melb Apt
(km/hr)
Wed-7-4-2021Fog.
Haze.
12.5
(12)
24.2
(23.3)
02N 5
SSE 8
Gusts25
Thu-8-4-2021Sunny.
Partly Cloudy.
12.4
(12)
27.9
(27.3)
08N 15
NNW 15
Gusts40
Fri-9-4-2021Shower.
Cloudy.
11.7
(11.6)
19.3
(17.9)
1.674WSW 15
S 15
Gusts35
Sat-10-4-2021Shower.
Rain.
10.9
(10.8)
18.8
(18)
1.375WNW 15
WSW 15
Gusts40
Sun-11-4-2021Rain.
Rain.
9.6
(9.7)
16.4
(15.2)
1.887WSW 25
SW 25
Gusts55
Mon-12-4-2021Fog.
Sunny.
9.6
(9.3)
16.9
(15.8)
015SW 5
S 12
Gusts30
Tue-13-4-2021Sunny.
Sunny.
8.8
(8.4)
22.7
(22)
01N 25
N 25
Gusts55
Wed-14-4-2021Rain.
Thunder.
15.1
(14.6)
23.5
(23.7)
2.797N 30
N 25
Gusts60
Thu-15-4-2021Rain.
Rain.
12.4
(12.4)
17.7
(16.6)
3.794WSW 25
SW 25
Gusts55
Fri-16-4-2021Rain.
Rain.
11.8
(12.1)
17.6
(17.7)
3.394WNW 30
W 35
Gusts65
Sat-17-4-2021Rain.
Thunder.
10.2
(10.7)
15.4
(14.4)
8.798WSW 35
SW 35
Gusts65
Sun-18-4-2021Possible Shower.
Possible Shower.
9.3
(9.4)
15.6
(14.6)
040WSW 25
SW 25
Gusts55
Mon-19-4-2021Partly Cloudy.
Sunny.
8
(7.9)
16.1
(15.4)
09NW 10
WSW 10
Gusts30
Tue-20-4-2021Shower.
Shower.
12.3
(12.1)
20.6
(20.4)
5.165N 30
NNW 30
Gusts70

The Weather Icons

Acknowledgement: Bureau of Meteorology & World Meteorological Organisation

Sunny
Dry
Haze
Mist
Fog
Partly Cloudy
Cloudy
Windy
Dust

Possible Shower
Drizzle
Shower
Snow
Rain
Thunder
Cyclone



THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR MAY/JUN/JUL:

NCEP's Depiction of the Global Sea Surface Temperature Evolution

The average Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index for the past week is -0.07 (-0.13 standard deviations), the average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the past 90 days is 13.82, the average SOI for the past 30 days is 9.13, and the latest recorded bimonthly Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is -1.2. The expected MEI, adjusted by the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index and also by recent values of the SOI, for MAR/APR is -0.62. Such a value of MEI indicates a sea surface temperature distribution that corresponds to a weak La Niña. This suggests:

RAINFALL: There is little indication as to whether total MAY/JUN/JUL rainfall will be below, near or above normal in Victorian Districts.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: There is a slightly enhanced chance that average MAY/JUN/JUL overnight temperatures will be below normal in the CENTRAL District, there is a slightly enhanced chance that overnight temperatures will be below normal in the WIMMERA District, but there is little indication as to whether overnight temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that average MAY/JUN/JUL daytime temperatures will be above normal in the WESTERN District, there is a slightly enhanced chance that average MAY/JUN/JUL daytime temperatures will be below normal in the CENTRAL District, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that daytime temperatures will be below normal in the MALLEE, NORTHERN COUNTRY, and EAST GIPPSLAND Districts, but there is little indication as to whether daytime temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.