Experimental Melbourne CBD Long Range Weather Forecast

Based Upon Statistical Interpretation of NOAA Data

(http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready.html)

NOAA Data At: 10am, 7-10-2021

Minimum temperatures are for the night/early morning, maximum temperatures are for the daytime,
whilst precipitation amounts and probabilities are for the 24 hours from midnight.

Temperatures for the Melbourne observation site (at Olympic Park) are in brackets.

Day & DateMorningAfternoonMin
Temp
(deg C)
Max
Temp
(deg C)
Precip
Amount
(mm)
Precip
Prob
(%)
9am Wind/
3pm Wind
Melb Apt
(km/hr)
Fri-8-10-2021Sunny.
Partly Cloudy.
8.4
(8.1)
22.3
(21.7)
06N 25
NNW 25
Gusts50
Sat-9-10-2021Rain.
Thunder.
15.2
(14.7)
22.5
(21.9)
1.983NNW 15
WNW 15
Gusts50
Sun-10-10-2021Rain.
Rain.
9.5
(9.4)
17.1
(15.8)
3.393SW 15
SSW 20
Gusts45
Mon-11-10-2021Shower.
Cloudy.
9.3
(9)
16
(14.7)
1.171SSW 15
S 20
Gusts40
Tue-12-10-2021Fog.
Partly Cloudy.
7.4
(6.8)
22.2
(21.5)
07N 15
N 20
Gusts45
Wed-13-10-2021Shower.
Shower.
11.6
(11)
25.3
(25.2)
367N 40
N 40
Gusts75
Thu-14-10-2021Rain.
Thunder.
15.3
(14.7)
24.7
(24.2)
8.786N 35
N 30
Gusts65
Fri-15-10-2021Rain.
Rain.
12
(11.9)
19.5
(19.1)
1.182WNW 25
W 30
Gusts60
Sat-16-10-2021Sunny.
Partly Cloudy.
10
(9.9)
18.2
(17.4)
015WNW 25
W 30
Gusts60
Sun-17-10-2021Rain.
Rain.
9.8
(9.6)
16.8
(15.8)
1.689SW 15
SSW 20
Gusts45
Mon-18-10-2021Rain.
Rain.
8.9
(8.8)
16.6
(15.5)
1.583SW 15
SSW 20
Gusts45
Tue-19-10-2021Partly Cloudy.
Sunny.
8.7
(8.4)
16.3
(15.1)
011SSW 8
S 15
Gusts30
Wed-20-10-2021Sunny.
Sunny.
7.4
(7)
23.4
(22.6)
02N 15
N 20
Gusts45
Thu-21-10-2021Windy.
Windy.
10.3
(9.7)
26.5
(26.2)
04N 40
N 40
Gusts75

The Weather Icons

Acknowledgement: Bureau of Meteorology & World Meteorological Organisation

Sunny
Dry
Haze
Mist
Fog
Partly Cloudy
Cloudy
Windy
Dust

Possible Shower
Drizzle
Shower
Snow
Rain
Thunder
Cyclone



THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR NOV/DEC/JAN:

NCEP's Depiction of the Global Sea Surface Temperature Evolution

The average Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index for the past week is -0.49 (-0.94 standard deviations), the average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the past 90 days is 9.73, the average SOI for the past 30 days (click here for a picture of recent trends) is 10.72, and the latest recorded bimonthly Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is -1.41. The expected MEI, adjusted by the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index and also by recent values of the SOI, for SEP/OCT is -1.05. Such a value of MEI indicates a sea surface temperature distribution that corresponds to a La Niña. This suggests:

RAINFALL: There is an enhanced chance that total NOV/DEC/JAN rainfall will be above normal in the NORTHERN COUNTRY, NORTHEAST, EAST GIPPSLAND and WEST GIPPSLAND Districts, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that rainfall will be above normal in the MALLEE, NORTH CENTRAL and CENTRAL Districts, and there is little indication as to whether rainfall will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that average NOV/DEC/JAN overnight temperatures will be above normal in the WEST GIPPSLAND District, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that overnight temperatures will be below normal in the MALLEE and WIMMERA Districts, and there is little indication as to whether overnight temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is an enhanced chance that average NOV/DEC/JAN daytime temperatures will be below normal in the WIMMERA, NORTHERN COUNTRY, NORTHEAST, EAST GIPPSLAND, and WEST GIPPSLAND Districts, there is a slightly enhanced chance that average NOV/DEC/JAN daytime temperatures will be below normal in the MALLEE and NORTH CENTRAL Districts, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that average NOV/DEC/JAN daytime temperatures will be below normal in the WESTERN DISTRICT, and there is little indication as to whether overnight temperatures will be below, near or above normal in the other Victorian District, the CENTRAL District.