Experimental Melbourne CBD Long Range Weather Forecast

Based Upon Statistical Interpretation of NOAA Data

(http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready.html)

NOAA Data At: 10am, 10-9-2022

Minimum temperatures are for the night/early morning, maximum temperatures are for the daytime,
whilst precipitation amounts and probabilities are for the 24 hours from midnight.

Temperatures for the Melbourne observation site (at Olympic Park) are in brackets.

Day & DateMorningAfternoonMin
Temp
(deg C)
Max
Temp
(deg C)
Precip
Amount
(mm)
Precip
Prob
(%)
9am Wind/
3pm Wind
Melb Apt
(km/hr)
Sun-11-9-2022Shower.
Rain.
8.1
(8.2)
15.5
(14.8)
1.375WNW 25
W 30
Gusts60
Mon-12-9-2022Rain.
Rain.
6.5
(6.6)
14.6
(13.5)
1.280SW 15
SSW 20
Gusts45
Tue-13-9-2022Partly Cloudy.
Sunny.
4.6
(4.3)
13.9
(12.8)
018SSW 8
S 15
Gusts30
Wed-14-9-2022Fog.
Sunny.
4.9
(4.4)
18.5
(18.4)
02NNE 20
NNE 25
Gusts55
Thu-15-9-2022Rain.
Thunder.
11.6
(11)
17.9
(18.1)
5.585N 40
N 35
Gusts80
Fri-16-9-2022Rain.
Rain.
10.5
(10.4)
15.7
(15.2)
5.999WNW 15
WSW 20
Gusts50
Sat-17-9-2022Rain.
Rain.
9.6
(9.8)
15
(14.1)
5.898WSW 25
SSW 25
Gusts60
Sun-18-9-2022Rain.
Rain.
7.7
(7.8)
15.2
(14.4)
1.882WNW 25
W 30
Gusts60
Mon-19-9-2022Cloudy.
Sunny.
7.5
(7.4)
14.4
(13.2)
024SW 15
SSW 15
Gusts40
Tue-20-9-2022Partly Cloudy.
Sunny.
8.1
(7.9)
15.6
(14.5)
014SW 8
S 10
Gusts30
Wed-21-9-2022Partly Cloudy.
Sunny.
7
(6.8)
15.2
(14)
010SSW 8
S 15
Gusts30
Thu-22-9-2022Fog.
Haze.
6.3
(5.9)
18
(17.1)
010SSE 8
S 12
Gusts35
Fri-23-9-2022Sunny.
Sunny.
8.3
(7.8)
21.5
(21)
02N 25
N 30
Gusts60
Sat-24-9-2022Rain.
Thunder.
9.9
(9.5)
19.8
(20.2)
2.481N 40
N 35
Gusts80

The Weather Icons

Acknowledgement: Bureau of Meteorology & World Meteorological Organisation

Sunny
Dry
Haze
Mist
Fog
Partly Cloudy
Cloudy
Windy
Dust

Possible Shower
Drizzle
Shower
Snow
Rain
Thunder
Cyclone



THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR OCT/NOV/DEC:

NCEP's Depiction of the Global Sea Surface Temperature Evolution

The average Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index for the past week is -0.61 (-1.17 standard deviations), the average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the past 90 days is 11.15, the average SOI for the past 30 days (click here for a picture of recent trends) is 8.43, and the latest recorded bimonthly Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is -1.79. The expected MEI, adjusted by the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index and also by recent values of the SOI, for AUG/SEP is -1.26. Such a value of MEI indicates a sea surface temperature distribution that corresponds to a La Niña. This suggests:

RAINFALL: There is an enhanced chance that total OCT/NOV/DEC rainfall will be above normal in the MALLEE, NORTHERN COUNTRY, NORTH CENTRAL, NORTHEAST, EAST GIPPSLAND, WEST GIPPSLAND, CENTRAL and WESTERN Districts, and there is a slightly enhanced chance that rainfall will be above normal in the WIMMERA District.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: There is an enhanced chance that average OCT/NOV/DEC overnight temperatures will be above normal in the WEST GIPPSLAND District, there is a slightly enhanced chance that overnight temperatures will be above normal in the EAST GIPPSLAND District, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that overnight temperatures will be above normal in the WESTERN District, there is a slightly enhanced chance that overnight temperatures will be below normal in the MALLEE District, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that overnight temperatures will be below normal in the WIMMERA District, and there is little indication as to whether overnight temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is an enhanced chance that average OCT/NOV/DEC daytime temperatures will be below normal in all Victorian Districts.