Experimental Melbourne CBD Long Range Weather Forecast

Based Upon Statistical Interpretation of NOAA Data

(http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready.html)

NOAA Data At: 10am, 11-2-2024

Minimum temperatures are for the night/early morning, maximum temperatures are for the daytime,
whilst precipitation amounts and probabilities are for the 24 hours from midnight.

Temperatures for the Melbourne observation site (at Olympic Park) are in brackets.

Day & DateMorningAfternoonMin
Temp
(deg C)
Max
Temp
(deg C)
Precip
Amount
(mm)
Precip
Prob
(%)
9am Wind/
3pm Wind
Melb Apt
(km/hr)
Mon-12-2-2024Fog.
Dry.
19.4
(18.7)
37.1
(36.1)
010N 13
WNW 18
Gusts50
Tue-13-2-2024Shower.
Thunder.
23.4
(22.6)
33.1
(32.7)
4.275N 30
WNW 25
Gusts65
Wed-14-2-2024Rain.
Thunder.
14.8
(14.4)
21.3
(20)
1.175SSW 15
S 20
Gusts45
Thu-15-2-2024Sunny.
Sunny.
13
(12.6)
23.3
(22.1)
04S 8
S 15
Gusts35
Fri-16-2-2024Sunny.
Sunny.
13.8
(13.3)
24.7
(23.4)
04S 8
S 15
Gusts35
Sat-17-2-2024Haze.
Haze.
14.4
(13.7)
28.2
(26.9)
03S 8
S 15
Gusts35
Sun-18-2-2024Partly Cloudy.
Sunny.
15.8
(15.1)
24.8
(23.4)
05SSE 12
S 20
Gusts40
Mon-19-2-2024Haze.
Haze.
15.3
(14.5)
28.6
(27.6)
03S 8
S 15
Gusts35
Tue-20-2-2024Cloudy.
Thunder.
19
(18.1)
35.2
(34.3)
0.853N 35
N 25
Gusts60
Wed-21-2-2024Shower.
Thunder.
21.8
(20.9)
37.2
(37)
1.962N 40
N 30
Gusts70
Thu-22-2-2024Cloudy.
Thunder.
23.6
(22.7)
34.5
(33.6)
6.556N 15
NNW 20
Gusts50
Fri-23-2-2024Drizzle.
Partly Cloudy.
24.5
(23.7)
28.8
(27.7)
1.553WSW 5
SSW 15
Gusts40
Sat-24-2-2024Fog.
Haze.
18.9
(18.1)
29.7
(28.5)
01S 8
S 15
Gusts35
Sun-25-2-2024Cloudy.
Thunder.
21.3
(20.4)
36.3
(35.6)
1.155N 35
N 25
Gusts60

The Weather Icons

Acknowledgement: Bureau of Meteorology & World Meteorological Organisation

Sunny
Dry
Haze
Mist
Fog
Partly Cloudy
Cloudy
Windy
Dust

Possible Shower
Drizzle
Shower
Snow
Rain
Thunder
Cyclone






THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR MAR/APR/MAY:

NCEP's Depiction of the Global Sea Surface Temperature Evolution

The average Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index for the past week is 0.3 (0.58 standard deviations), the average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the past 90 days is -4.42, the average SOI for the past 30 days is -2.84, and the latest recorded bimonthly Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is 1.07. The expected MEI, adjusted by the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index and also by recent values of the SOI, for JAN/FEB is 0.65. Such a value of MEI indicates a sea surface temperature distribution that corresponds to a weak El Niño. This suggests:

RAINFALL: There is a slightly enhanced chance that total MAR/APR/MAY rainfall will be below normal in the NORTHERN COUNTRY District, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that rainfall will be above normal in the EAST GIPPSLAND District, but there is little indication as to whether rainfall will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: There is a slightly enhanced chance that average MAR/APR/MAY overnight temperatures will be below normal in the NORTHERN COUNTRY District, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that overnight temperatures will be below normal in the WIMMERA District, but there is little indication as to whether overnight temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is a slightly enhanced chance that average MAR/APR/MAY daytime temperatures will be below normal in the WIMMERA and NORTH CENTRAL Districts, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that average MAR/APR/MAY daytime temperatures will be below normal in the WESTERN District, but there is little indication as to whether daytime temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.