Experimental Melbourne CBD Long Range Weather Forecast

Based Upon Statistical Interpretation of NOAA Data

Combined With Human Forecasts

(http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready.html)

NOAA Data At: 10am, 12-2-2024

Minimum temperatures are for the night/early morning, maximum temperatures are for the daytime,
whilst precipitation amounts and probabilities are for the 24 hours from midnight.

Temperatures for the Melbourne observation site (at Olympic Park) are in brackets.

Day & DateMorningAfternoonMin
Temp
(deg C)
Max
Temp
(deg C)
Precip
Amount
(mm)
Precip
Prob
(%)
9am Wind/
3pm Wind
Melb Apt
(km/hr)
Tue-13-2-2024Shower.
Thunder.
22.2
(21.5)
36.1
(35.7)
3.370N 30
WNW 25
Gusts65
Wed-14-2-2024Partly Cloudy.
Cloudy.
15.5
(15.1)
20.6
(19.3)
028SSW 15
S 20
Gusts45
Thu-15-2-2024Sunny.
Sunny.
12.8
(12.4)
23.1
(21.9)
01S 8
S 15
Gusts35
Fri-16-2-2024Sunny.
Sunny.
13.9
(13.4)
25.6
(24.3)
02S 8
S 15
Gusts35
Sat-17-2-2024Sunny.
Sunny.
15.7
(15.1)
26.6
(25.3)
03S 8
S 15
Gusts35
Sun-18-2-2024Partly Cloudy.
Sunny.
16.6
(16)
26.6
(25.4)
08S 8
S 15
Gusts35
Mon-19-2-2024Haze.
Haze.
17.3
(16.6)
26.6
(25.4)
018S 5
S 15
Gusts35
Tue-20-2-2024Haze.
Haze.
17.9
(17.1)
29.9
(29)
018S 8
S 15
Gusts35
Wed-21-2-2024Partly Cloudy.
Partly Cloudy.
18.5
(17.7)
31.3
(30.3)
020N 10
S 15
Gusts45
Thu-22-2-2024Cloudy.
Thunder.
19.5
(18.9)
31.7
(30.9)
2.156N 20
WSW 20
Gusts60
Fri-23-2-2024Cloudy.
Sunny.
16.9
(16.4)
23.9
(22.4)
023SSW 15
S 20
Gusts45
Sat-24-2-2024Haze.
Haze.
15.4
(14.6)
26.7
(25.7)
010S 8
S 15
Gusts35
Sun-25-2-2024Sunny.
Partly Cloudy.
16.4
(15.7)
31.3
(30.7)
018N 35
N 25
Gusts60
Mon-26-2-2024Partly Cloudy.
Cloudy.
18.4
(17.8)
29.2
(28.9)
023N 30
WNW 25
Gusts65

The Weather Icons

Acknowledgement: Bureau of Meteorology & World Meteorological Organisation

Sunny
Dry
Haze
Mist
Fog
Partly Cloudy
Cloudy
Windy
Dust

Possible Shower
Drizzle
Shower
Snow
Rain
Thunder
Cyclone

Definitions

IconMeaning
Sunny:Sun shines >75% of the time
Dry: As 'sunny', but used on days when Max > 30 Deg C
& Relative Humidity drops below 10%
Haze: As 'sunny', but used on days when visibility drops
below 5000 m due to smoke
Mist: Visibility below 5000 m due to water droplets but above 1000 m
(also used on days when isolated fog patches)
Fog: Visibility below 1000 m
Partly Cloudy: Sun shines between 25% & 75% of the time
Cloudy: Sun shines <25% of the time
Windy: No precipitation & wind speed averages
'fresh' (18 kts) or stronger
Dust: Visibility <1km due to dust raised by wind
Possible Shower: Isolated light precipitation <25% of the metropolitan area
Drizzle: Liquid precipitation that is almost continuous
& made up of fine droplets
Shower: Brief periods of liquid precipitation
Snow: Snow or sleet falls (includes cases of flurries and/or ice)
Rain: Liquid precipitation that is almost continuous
but droplets are of medium size or large (not fine)
Thunder: Thunder heard or lightning seen
Cyclone: Wind speed averages 'storm force' (60 kts) or stronger


Weather Pattern for Tue-13-2-2024:
Front crossing South Australian waters.
Moderate to fresh unstable northwesterly flow across Victoria.

Bay Forecast

20 knot W to NW wind turning SW.
Waves of 1.5 to 2 metres.

Melbourne Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF)

TAF YMML 1212 36010KT 9999 SCT035 BKN100
FM21 36015G30KT 8000 RA SCT035 BKN100
FM03 26015G30KT 6000 SHRA BKN035

RMK
T 30 25 21 23 Q 1012 1009 1007 1006


THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR MAR/APR/MAY:

NCEP's Depiction of the Global Sea Surface Temperature Evolution

The average Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index for the past week is 0.3 (0.58 standard deviations), the average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the past 90 days is -4.42, the average SOI for the past 30 days is -2.84, and the latest recorded bimonthly Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is 1.07. The expected MEI, adjusted by the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index and also by recent values of the SOI, for JAN/FEB is 0.65. Such a value of MEI indicates a sea surface temperature distribution that corresponds to a weak El Niño. This suggests:

RAINFALL: There is a slightly enhanced chance that total MAR/APR/MAY rainfall will be below normal in the NORTHERN COUNTRY District, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that rainfall will be above normal in the EAST GIPPSLAND District, but there is little indication as to whether rainfall will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: There is a slightly enhanced chance that average MAR/APR/MAY overnight temperatures will be below normal in the NORTHERN COUNTRY District, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that overnight temperatures will be below normal in the WIMMERA District, but there is little indication as to whether overnight temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is a slightly enhanced chance that average MAR/APR/MAY daytime temperatures will be below normal in the WIMMERA and NORTH CENTRAL Districts, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that average MAR/APR/MAY daytime temperatures will be below normal in the WESTERN District, but there is little indication as to whether daytime temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.



30 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MELBOURNE:

Today's scientists talk in terms of the continent's large climate variability from season to season, and from year to year. What causes these fluctuations? They are, in part, connected with the climate phenomenon called the Southern Oscillation, a major air pressure shift between the Asian and east Pacific regions whose best-known extremes are El Niño events and La Niña events. The Pacific Ocean is a huge mass of water which controls many climate features in its region. Its equatorial expanse, far larger than the Indian or Atlantic Oceans, is critical to the development of the Southern Oscillation and the El Niño and the La Niña. The Multivariate ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) Index, which combines the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) distribution across the Pacific with various features of the atmospheric circulation, is used to monitor the evolution of the El Niño and Southern Oscillation phenomena. The MEI is a bimonthly index which is calculated at the end of each month.

Another region of Sea Surface Temperature variability that impacts on Australian climate is that of the Indian Ocean. One mode of variability that appears to affect Australian rainfall, particularly the south east of the country, is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The IOD referred to here is defined by an index that is the difference between SST in the western (50°-70°E, 0°S-10°N) and eastern (90°-110°E, 10°-0°S) tropical Indian Oceans. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index (DMI) occurs when the western basin is warmer than average and the eastern basin is cool and hence the DMI is positive. These regions were proposed in a paper by Saji et al. (1999) on the Indian Ocean Dipole that showed a modulation in Australian seasonal rainfall with DMI positive and negative years. The current Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index (DMI) is 0.58 standard deviations.

Also impacting upon Australian climate variability is a phenomenon known as the Intra Seasonal Oscillation (ISO) (also known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), after Madden and Julian, who first identified it in the early 1970s). They discovered that, at many locations in the tropics, surface pressure and upper atmospheric winds tend to go through a coherent cycle over periods of about 40 to 50 days. It has been found that a broad area of active cloud and rainfall propagates eastwards around the equator at intervals of between about 40 and 50 days. These are not strict time limits - research over the years has pushed the limits of the oscillation's period to between about 30 and 60 days. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is presently operating in Phase 7. This is reflected in the near-equatorial enhanced convection being found over the central Pacific. Following Phase 7, the Pacific convection often dies out, and a new region of near-equatorial enhanced convection develops over the Western Hemisphere (South America).

In Melbourne, at this time of the year, a combination of the MEI, the DMI, and the MJO Phase, such as what we have operating now, suggests, over the following 30 days:

RAINFALL: There is a 50% chance of it being wet, a 31% chance of normal rainfall, and a 19% chance of it being dry.

Wet
Weather
Dry
Weather
Normal
Weather


OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES:
There is a 41% chance of warm nights, a 33% chance of normal overnight temperatures, and a 26% chance of cool nights.

Warm
Nights
Cool
Nights
Normal
Nights


DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is a 37% chance of warm days, a 33% chance of normal daytime temperatures, and a 30% chance of cool days.
Warm
Days
Cool
Days
Normal
Days


INPUT DATA

Day & DateMSLPmelMSLPhayMSLPsmiMSLPgabMSLPmtgMSLPfor700
rhmel
850
temp
min
9am
12noon
3pm
3pmdpt

gfsprecip
syn
type
offprecis
climatology
prob
TS
prob
FOG
raw
MIN
raw
MAX
raw
PoP
raw
QPF
Initial1014.71016.210141017.11014.71014.534.61719.4
26
33.5
36.3
14.6
--------
Tue-13-2-20241006.61011.61005.61011.31006.61015.66120.80.921SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTERNOON STORM
20-37 20.7-37.4 70% 0- 6 (93% 5)
20.4%1%23.434.150.2%5.2
Wed-14-2-20241017.210151016.41014.61019.61021.7302.10.327PARTLY CLOUDY
15-19 15.4-20.3 5% 0- 0 (20% 0)
5.1%0%14.420.650.6%2.3
Thu-15-2-20241022.11019.31021.61022.31023.41020.9309.8014MOSTLY SUNNY
12-22 12.4-23.2 0% 0- 0 (9% 0)
0.3%3.8%12.422.47.5%1.8
Fri-16-2-202410221018.71022.31021.61022.51018.13012.6014SUNNY
13-25 13.5-26.3 0% 0- 0 (1% 0)
0.3%2%13.223.96.7%1.6
Sat-17-2-202410211017.91021.51020.51020.91015.93014.8014PARTLY CLOUDY
15-25 15.6-26.4 0% 0- 0 (25% 0)
0.3%1.8%14.325.16.5%1.5
Sun-18-2-20241020.71018.11020.110201020.4101650.115.3014PARTLY CLOUDY
15-25 15.6-26.2 5% 0- 0 (26% 0)
0.3%2.1%16.8256.5%1.5
Mon-19-2-202410191016.2101910191018.61013.663.915.4016PARTLY CLOUDY
16-23 16.7-24.2 10% 0- 0 (28% 0
1.7%4.2%17284.5%1.1
Tue-20-2-20241015.11013.61018.11017.81013.91011.566.615.8032Empty
16-26.7 26% 1.7
2.4%4.9%17.229.48.4%2
Wed-21-2-20241010.31010.61011.710121009.41003.863.415.9018Empty
15.4-25.8 26% 1.7
3.2%2.3%18.532.411%5
Thu-22-2-20241007.81009.71008.11009.61007.61011.371.420.50.93Empty
15.4-25.8 26% 1.7
27.7%2.1%19.934.248.5%12.2
Fri-23-2-20241020.61017.71018.41016.51023.11019.3304.3028Empty
15.4-25.8 26% 1.7
0.3%0.1%14.820.425.3%1.4
Sat-24-2-20241025.51021.61027.21027.91024.81014.43011.5032Empty
15.4-25.8 26% 1.7
2.2%4.6%13.626.23.8%1.1
Sun-25-2-20241021.81021.91021.51025.81018.51011.33014.3020Empty
15.4-25.8 26% 1.7
6.9%0.2%14.933.36.6%1.6
Mon-26-2-20241013.91017.11010.81016.31010.91019.264.918.1021Empty
15.4-25.8 26% 1.7
9%0.9%2031.638.3%4.3
Day 1510191014.21019.61017.41022.41024.33010.70oooooooooooooooooooooooo

DAYDATEWEATHER
(Melbourne)
WIND
(Melbourne Airport)
TEMPERATURES, RAINFALL, PHENOMENA
(Melbourne Olympic Park Site)
WEEK 1
Tue13-2-2024A very mild night then a hot day. Cloud increasing. Just a few showers during the morning. Thunderstorms developing during the afternoon.
PRECIS: THUNDERSTORMS
Mainly fresh wind, from a northerly direction at about 30 km/hr during the morning and from a west to northwesterly direction at about 25 km/hr during the afternoon. Gusts to around 65 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 21.5°C to 35.7°C
RAINFALL 3.3mm (amount) 70% (probability)
FOG 1% (probability)
THUNDER 20% (probability)
Wed14-2-2024A mild night then a mild day. Sunny periods during the morning. Becoming cloudy during the afternoon, but without precipitation.
PRECIS: BECOMING CLOUDY
Mainly moderate wind, from a south to southwesterly direction at about 15 km/hr during the morning and from a southerly direction at about 20 km/hr during the afternoon. Gusts to around 45 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 15.1°C to 19.3°C
RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 28% (probability)
FOG 0% (probability)
THUNDER 5% (probability)
Thu15-2-2024A cool night then a mild day. Clear skies and sunshine.
PRECIS: SUNNY
Mainly light to moderate wind, from a southerly direction at about 8 km/hr during the morning and continuing to be from a southerly direction, but at about 15 km/hr, during the afternoon. Gusts to around 35 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 12.4°C to 21.9°C
RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 1% (probability)
FOG 4% (probability)
THUNDER 0% (probability)
Fri16-2-2024A cool night then a mild to warm day. Clear skies and sunshine.
PRECIS: SUNNY
Mainly light to moderate wind, from a southerly direction at about 8 km/hr during the morning and continuing to be from a southerly direction, but at about 15 km/hr, during the afternoon. Gusts to around 35 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 13.4°C to 24.3°C
RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 2% (probability)
FOG 2% (probability)
THUNDER 0% (probability)
Sat17-2-2024A mild night then a warm day. Clear skies and sunshine.
PRECIS: SUNNY
Mainly light to moderate wind, from a southerly direction at about 8 km/hr during the morning and continuing to be from a southerly direction, but at about 15 km/hr, during the afternoon. Gusts to around 35 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 15.1°C to 25.3°C
RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 3% (probability)
FOG 2% (probability)
THUNDER 0% (probability)
Sun18-2-2024A mild night then a warm day. Cloudy at times during the morning, but without precipitation. A sunny afternoon.
PRECIS: BECOMING SUNNY
Mainly light to moderate wind, from a southerly direction at about 8 km/hr during the morning and continuing to be from a southerly direction, but at about 15 km/hr, during the afternoon. Gusts to around 35 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 16°C to 25.4°C
RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 8% (probability)
FOG 2% (probability)
THUNDER 0% (probability)
Mon19-2-2024A mild night then a warm day. Sunny, but hazy at times.
PRECIS: HAZY
Mainly light to moderate wind, from a southerly direction at about 5 km/hr during the morning and continuing to be from a southerly direction, but at about 15 km/hr, during the afternoon. Gusts to around 35 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 16.6°C to 25.4°C
RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 18% (probability)
FOG 4% (probability)
THUNDER 2% (probability)

DAYDATEWEATHER
(Melbourne)
WIND
(Melbourne Airport)
TEMPERATURES, RAINFALL, PHENOMENA
(Melbourne Olympic Park Site)
WEEK 2
Tue20-2-2024A mild night then a very warm day. Sunny, but hazy at times.
PRECIS: HAZY
Mainly light to moderate wind, from a southerly direction at about 8 km/hr during the morning and continuing to be from a southerly direction, but at about 15 km/hr, during the afternoon. Gusts to around 35 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 17.1°C to 29°C
RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 18% (probability)
FOG 5% (probability)
THUNDER 2% (probability)
Wed21-2-2024A mild night then a very warm day. Cloudy at times, but without precipitation.
PRECIS: PARTLY CLOUDY
Mainly moderate wind, from a northerly direction at about 10 km/hr during the morning and from a southerly direction at about 15 km/hr during the afternoon. Gusts to around 45 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 17.7°C to 30.3°C
RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 20% (probability)
FOG 2% (probability)
THUNDER 3% (probability)
Thu22-2-2024A very mild night then a very warm day. Cloudy. Thunderstorms developing during the afternoon.
PRECIS: THUNDERSTORMS LATER
Mainly moderate to fresh wind, from a northerly direction at about 20 km/hr during the morning and from a west to southwesterly direction, also at about 20 km/hr, during the afternoon. Gusts to around 60 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 18.9°C to 30.9°C
RAINFALL 2.1mm (amount) 56% (probability)
FOG 2% (probability)
THUNDER 28% (probability)
Fri23-2-2024A mild night then a mild to warm day. A cloudy morning, but without precipitation. Becoming sunny during the afternoon.
PRECIS: BECOMING SUNNY
Mainly moderate wind, from a south to southwesterly direction at about 15 km/hr during the morning and from a southerly direction at about 20 km/hr during the afternoon. Gusts to around 45 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 16.4°C to 22.4°C
RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 23% (probability)
FOG 0% (probability)
THUNDER 0% (probability)
Sat24-2-2024A mild night then a warm day. Sunny, but hazy at times.
PRECIS: HAZY
Mainly light to moderate wind, from a southerly direction at about 8 km/hr during the morning and continuing to be from a southerly direction, but at about 15 km/hr, during the afternoon. Gusts to around 35 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 14.6°C to 25.7°C
RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 10% (probability)
FOG 5% (probability)
THUNDER 2% (probability)
Sun25-2-2024A mild night then a very warm day. A sunny morning. Cloudy at times during the afternoon, but without precipitation.
PRECIS: CLOUD INCREASING
Mainly moderate to fresh wind, from a northerly direction at about 35 km/hr during the morning and continuing to be from a northerly direction, but at about 25 km/hr, during the afternoon. Gusts to around 60 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 15.7°C to 30.7°C
RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 18% (probability)
FOG 0% (probability)
THUNDER 7% (probability)
Mon26-2-2024A mild night then a very warm day. Sunny periods during the morning. Becoming cloudy during the afternoon, but without precipitation.
PRECIS: BECOMING CLOUDY
Mainly fresh wind, from a northerly direction at about 30 km/hr during the morning and from a west to northwesterly direction at about 25 km/hr during the afternoon. Gusts to around 65 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 17.8°C to 28.9°C
RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 23% (probability)
FOG 1% (probability)
THUNDER 9% (probability)