Experimental Melbourne CBD Long Range Weather Forecast

Based Upon Statistical Interpretation of NOAA Data

Combined With Human Forecasts

(http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready.html)

NOAA Data At: 10am, 12-10-2017

Minimum temperatures are for the night/early morning, maximum temperatures are for the daytime,
whilst precipitation amounts and probabilities are for the 24 hours from midnight.

Temperatures for the new Melbourne observation site (at Olympic Park) are in brackets.

Day & DateMorningAfternoonMin
Temp
(deg C)
Max
Temp
(deg C)
Precip
Amount
(mm)
Precip
Prob
(%)
9am Wind/
3pm Wind
Melb Apt
(km/hr)
Fri-13-10-2017Cloudy.
Cloudy.
11.2
(11)
18.9
(17.8)
035WNW 15
WSW 20
Gusts50
Sat-14-10-2017Partly Cloudy.
Sunny.
9.8
(9.4)
20.4
(19.2)
014S 8
S 15
Gusts30
Sun-15-10-2017Haze.
Haze.
10
(9.5)
21.8
(20.6)
05SSE 5
S 15
Gusts30
Mon-16-10-2017Sunny.
Sunny.
10.8
(10.2)
27.2
(26.3)
04N 15
N 20
Gusts45
Tue-17-10-2017Sunny.
Sunny.
15.2
(14.4)
29
(28.5)
03N 25
N 30
Gusts60
Wed-18-10-2017Cloudy.
Cloudy.
18.6
(17.8)
30.2
(29.8)
036N 25
N 30
Gusts60
Thu-19-10-2017Cloudy.
Shower.
19.1
(18.4)
24.1
(23.4)
352N 25
NNW 25
Gusts50
Fri-20-10-2017Drizzle.
Partly Cloudy.
12.5
(12.1)
20.3
(19.1)
0.752SSW 8
S 15
Gusts30
Sat-21-10-2017Partly Cloudy.
Partly Cloudy.
11.6
(11)
23.6
(22.6)
022NNE 8
NNE 15
Gusts35
Sun-22-10-2017Cloudy.
Shower.
13.2
(12.7)
23
(22.2)
0.955N 12
N 15
Gusts40
Mon-23-10-2017Cloudy.
Shower.
14.1
(13.8)
23.2
(22.3)
256WNW 15
WSW 20
Gusts50
Tue-24-10-2017Cloudy.
Sunny.
11.7
(11.4)
20.4
(19.1)
030SW 15
SSW 15
Gusts40
Wed-25-10-2017Partly Cloudy.
Possible Shower.
11.8
(11.2)
24.1
(23.3)
042N 15
N 20
Gusts45
Thu-26-10-2017Shower.
Thunder.
14
(13.5)
23.9
(23.7)
662N 35
N 30
Gusts65

The Weather Icons

Acknowledgement: Bureau of Meteorology & World Meteorological Organisation

Sunny
Dry
Haze
Mist
Fog
Partly Cloudy
Cloudy
Windy
Dust

Possible Shower
Drizzle
Shower
Snow
Rain
Thunder
Cyclone

Definitions

IconMeaning
Sunny:Sun shines >75% of the time
Dry: As 'sunny', but used on days when Max > 30 Deg C
& Relative Humidity drops below 10%
Haze: As 'sunny', but used on days when visibility drops
below 5000 m due to smoke
Mist: Visibility below 5000 m due to water droplets but above 1000 m
(also used on days when isolated fog patches)
Fog: Visibility below 1000 m
Partly Cloudy: Sun shines between 25% & 75% of the time
Cloudy: Sun shines <25% of the time
Windy: No precipitation & wind speed averages
'fresh' (18 kts) or stronger
Dust: Visibility <1km due to dust raised by wind
Possible Shower: Isolated light precipitation <25% of the metropolitan area
Drizzle: Liquid precipitation that is almost continuous
& made up of fine droplets
Shower: Brief periods of liquid precipitation
Snow: Snow or sleet falls (includes cases of flurries and/or ice)
Rain: Liquid precipitation that is almost continuous
but droplets are of medium size or large (not fine)
Thunder: Thunder heard or lightning seen
Cyclone: Wind speed averages 'storm force' (60 kts) or stronger


Weather Pattern for Fri-13-10-2017:
Front approaching Tasmania.
Moderate unstable westerly flow across Victoria.

Bay Forecast

20 knot W to SW wind.
Waves of 1.5 to 2 metres.

Melbourne Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF)

TAF YMML 1212 33012KT 9999 SCT035 BKN100
FM21 29015G30KT 9999 SCT035 BKN100
FM03 26015G30KT 9999 BKN035

RMK
T 14 12 10 11 Q 1017 1017 1017 1019


THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR NOV/DEC/JAN:

NCEP's Depiction of the Global Sea Surface Temperature Evolution

The average Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index for the past week is 0.05 (0.1 standard deviations), the average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the past 90 days is 7.58, the average SOI for the past 30 days (click here for a picture of recent trends) is 9.94, and the latest recorded bimonthly Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is -0.449. The expected MEI, adjusted by the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index and also by recent values of the SOI, for SEP/OCT is -0.26. Such a value of MEI indicates a sea surface temperature distribution that corresponds to a very weak La Niña. This suggests:

RAINFALL: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that total NOV/DEC/JAN rainfall will be above normal in the MALLEE, NORTHERN COUNTRY, NORTH CENTRAL, NORTHEAST, EAST GIPPSLAND, WEST GIPPSLAND and CENTRAL Districts, and there is little indication as to whether rainfall will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that average NOV/DEC/JAN overnight temperatures will be above normal in the WEST GIPPSLAND District, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that overnight temperatures will be below normal in the MALLEE and WIMMERA Districts, and there is little indication as to whether overnight temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that average NOV/DEC/JAN daytime temperatures will be below normal in the MALLEE, WIMMERA, NORTHERN COUNTRY, NORTH CENTRAL, NORTHEAST, EAST GIPPSLAND, WEST GIPPSLAND and WESTERN Districts, and there is little indication as to whether overnight temperatures will be below, near or above normal in the other Victorian District, the CENTRAL District.



30 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MELBOURNE:

Today's scientists talk in terms of the continent's large climate variability from season to season, and from year to year. What causes these fluctuations? They are, in part, connected with the climate phenomenon called the Southern Oscillation, a major air pressure shift between the Asian and east Pacific regions whose best-known extremes are El Niño events and La Niña events. The Pacific Ocean is a huge mass of water which controls many climate features in its region. Its equatorial expanse, far larger than the Indian or Atlantic Oceans, is critical to the development of the Southern Oscillation and the El Niño and the La Niña. The Multivariate ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) Index, which combines the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) distribution across the Pacific with various features of the atmospheric circulation, is used to monitor the evolution of the El Niño and Southern Oscillation phenomena. The MEI is a bimonthly index which is calculated at the end of each month. The most recent MEI is -0.449 standard deviations. This reflects a mild La Niña event. This most recent value may be adjusted by taking into account the values of the Southern Oscillation Index averaged over the past 30 and 90 days to yield a more representative expected current value of the MEI. The expected MEI is -0.61 standard deviations. This would reflect a mild La Niña event.

Another region of Sea Surface Temperature variability that impacts on Australian climate is that of the Indian Ocean. One mode of variability that appears to affect Australian rainfall, particularly the south east of the country, is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The IOD referred to here is defined by an index that is the difference between SST in the western (50°-70°E, 0°S-10°N) and eastern (90°-110°E, 10°-0°S) tropical Indian Oceans. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index (DMI) occurs when the western basin is warmer than average and the eastern basin is cool and hence the DMI is positive. These regions were proposed in a paper by Saji et al. (1999) on the Indian Ocean Dipole that showed a modulation in Australian seasonal rainfall with DMI positive and negative years. The current Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index (DMI) is 0.1 standard deviations. This reflects a neutral Indian Ocean Dipole state.

Also impacting upon Australian climate variability is a phenomenon known as the Intra Seasonal Oscillation (ISO) (also known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), after Madden and Julian, who first identified it in the early 1970s). They discovered that, at many locations in the tropics, surface pressure and upper atmospheric winds tend to go through a coherent cycle over periods of about 40 to 50 days. It has been found that a broad area of active cloud and rainfall propagates eastwards around the equator at intervals of between about 40 and 50 days. These are not strict time limits - research over the years has pushed the limits of the oscillation's period to between about 30 and 60 days. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is presently operating in Phase 4. This is reflected in the near-equatorial enhanced convection being found over the over the western part of what is referred to as the Maritime Continent (Indonesia). Following Phase 4, the region of enhanced convection often moves from the western part of Indonesia to the eastern part of Indonesia.

In Melbourne, at this time of the year, a combination of the MEI, the DMI, and the MJO Phase, such as what we have operating now, suggests, over the following 30 days:

RAINFALL: There is a 31% chance of it being wet, a 33% chance of normal rainfall, and a 36% chance of it being dry.

Wet
Weather
Dry
Weather
Normal
Weather


OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES:
There is a 37% chance of warm nights, a 33% chance of normal overnight temperatures, and a 30% chance of cool nights.

Warm
Nights
Cool
Nights
Normal
Nights


DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is a 28% chance of warm days, a 33% chance of normal daytime temperatures, and a 39% chance of cool days.
Warm
Days
Cool
Days
Normal
Days


INPUT DATA

Day & DateMSLPmelMSLPhayMSLPsmiMSLPgabMSLPmtgMSLPfor700
rhmel
850
temp
min
9am
12noon
3pm
3pmdpt

gfsprecip
syn
type
offprecis
climatology
prob
TS
prob
FOG
raw
MIN
raw
MAX
raw
PoP
raw
QPF
Initial1014.51018.31007.31009.91015.31023.133.30.110.5
14
17.2
18.1
3.9
--------
Fri-13-10-20171020.51021.41016.91017.61021.61023.253.11.4023POSSIBLE SHOWER
11-18 11.2-19.1 40% 0-0.4 (49% 2)
2.8%0.3%9.81826%1.3
Sat-14-10-20171026.91024.410261026.21027.71020.7305.3014PARTLY CLOUDY
9-20 9.4-21.2 20% 0- 0 (20% 0)
0.2%1.8%9.518.59.4%0.9
Sun-15-10-20171027.21024.71027.31027.510271015.333.37.5016MOSTLY SUNNY
9-21 9.5-22.2 5% 0- 0 (9% 0)
0.2%1.9%9.520.58%1.5
Mon-16-10-20171026.31025.71027.31028.91023.51011309.9034MOSTLY SUNNY
10-27 10.6-27.9 5% 0- 0 (11% 0)
1.7%2.5%9.526.35.7%0.6
Tue-17-10-20171023.41023.71021.710261017.81007.13012.6020SUNNY
15-28 15.8-28.6 0% 0- 0 (3% 0)
0.2%0%12.729.32.4%1.2
Wed-18-10-20171020.61022.21017.81023.510161014.362.713.50.620POSSIBLE SHOWER DEVELOPING
18-30 18.8-30.4 30% 0-0.2 (36% 0)
0.7%0%1829.415.4%2.8
Thu-19-10-20171018.51019.91015.91019.61017.81017.79012.918.822SHOWER OR TWO
17-23 17.7-23.7 60% 1- 8 (47% 1
0.8%1%2224.116.2%3.3
Fri-20-10-20171019.91017.71019.71018.51021.71018.83090.312Empty
10.6-20.2 46% 2.2
1.4%5.7%12.119.415.9%1.5
Sat-21-10-20171017.41016.51017.81018.91016.91008.8309.4018Empty
11.4-21.2 46% 2.2
2.6%4.4%1025.17.8%4.9
Sun-22-10-20171011.31011.61010.41012.71010.21010.779.1121.54Empty
11.4-21.2 46% 2.2
4.2%2.1%13.424.836.1%1.1
Mon-23-10-201710081010.710061008.41009.11015.149.813.66.723Empty
11.4-21.2 46% 2.2
7.8%0.8%15.72547.4%2.3
Tue-24-10-20171014.81014.81011.81012.71016.51012.9303.4026Empty
11.4-21.2 46% 2.2
0.4%0.6%10.917.937.1%1.4
Wed-25-10-20171016.51015.61017.31019.110141003.9308.20.134Empty
11.4-21.2 46% 2.2
3.2%3.8%9.725.98.1%1
Thu-26-10-20171007.21009.11004.11011.31004.21011.28312.421.819Empty
11.4-21.2 46% 2.2
29.5%0.2%15.325.757%4.8
Day 151013.210121011.51011.81014.21012.5309.40oooooooooooooooooooooooo

DAYDATEWEATHERWINDTEMPERATURES, RAINFALL, PHENOMENA
WEEK 1
Fri13-10-2017A cool night then a cool to mild day. Cloudy but without precipitation.
PRECIS: CLOUDY
Mainly moderate wind, from a west to northwesterly direction at about 15 km/hr during the morning and from a west to southwesterly direction at about 20 km/hr during the afternoon. Gusts to around 50 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 10.8°C to 18.2°C
RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 35% (probability)
FOG 0% (probability)
THUNDER 3% (probability)
Sat14-10-2017A chilly night then a mild day. Cloudy at times during the morning, but without precipitation. A sunny afternoon.
PRECIS: BECOMING SUNNY
Mainly light wind, from a southerly direction at about 8 km/hr during the morning and continuing to be from a southerly direction, but at about 15 km/hr, during the afternoon. Gusts to around 30 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 9.3°C to 19.7°C
RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 14% (probability)
FOG 2% (probability)
THUNDER 0% (probability)
Sun15-10-2017A chilly night then a mild day. Sunny, but hazy at times.
PRECIS: HAZY
Mainly light wind, from a south to southeasterly direction at about 5 km/hr during the morning and from a southerly direction at about 15 km/hr during the afternoon. Gusts to around 30 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 9.4°C to 21.1°C
RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 5% (probability)
FOG 2% (probability)
THUNDER 0% (probability)
Mon16-10-2017A cool night then a warm day. Clear skies and sunshine.
PRECIS: SUNNY
Mainly moderate wind, from a northerly direction at about 15 km/hr during the morning and continuing to be from a northerly direction, but at about 20 km/hr, during the afternoon. Gusts to around 45 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 10.1°C to 26.6°C
RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 4% (probability)
FOG 3% (probability)
THUNDER 2% (probability)
Tue17-10-2017A mild night then a very warm day. Clear skies and sunshine.
PRECIS: SUNNY
Mainly moderate to fresh wind, from a northerly direction at about 25 km/hr during the morning and continuing to be from a northerly direction, but at about 30 km/hr, during the afternoon. Gusts to around 60 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 14.4°C to 28.5°C
RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 3% (probability)
FOG 0% (probability)
THUNDER 0% (probability)
Wed18-10-2017A mild night then a very warm day. Cloudy but without precipitation.
PRECIS: CLOUDY
Mainly moderate to fresh wind, from a northerly direction at about 25 km/hr during the morning and continuing to be from a northerly direction, but at about 30 km/hr, during the afternoon. Gusts to around 60 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 17.8°C to 29.8°C
RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 36% (probability)
FOG 0% (probability)
THUNDER 1% (probability)
Thu19-10-2017A very mild night then a mild to warm day. Cloudy. A few showers developing during the afternoon.
PRECIS: SHOWERS LATER
Mainly moderate wind, from a northerly direction at about 25 km/hr during the morning and from a north to northwesterly direction, also at about 25 km/hr, during the afternoon. Gusts to around 50 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 18.2°C to 23.4°C
RAINFALL 3mm (amount) 52% (probability)
FOG 1% (probability)
THUNDER 1% (probability)

DAYDATEWEATHERWINDTEMPERATURES, RAINFALL, PHENOMENA
WEEK 2
Fri20-10-2017A cool night then a mild day. Cloudy during the morning with patches of drizzle gradually clearing. Sunny periods during the afternoon.
PRECIS: DRIZZLE CLEARING
Mainly light wind, from a south to southwesterly direction at about 8 km/hr during the morning and from a southerly direction at about 15 km/hr during the afternoon. Gusts to around 30 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 11.9°C to 19.9°C
RAINFALL 0.7mm (amount) 52% (probability)
FOG 6% (probability)
THUNDER 1% (probability)
Sat21-10-2017A cool night then a mild to warm day. Cloudy at times, but without precipitation.
PRECIS: PARTLY CLOUDY
Mainly light to moderate wind, from a north to northeasterly direction at about 8 km/hr during the morning and continuing to be from a north to northeasterly direction, but at about 15 km/hr, during the afternoon. Gusts to around 35 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 11°C to 23.2°C
RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 22% (probability)
FOG 4% (probability)
THUNDER 3% (probability)
Sun22-10-2017A cool night then a mild to warm day. Cloudy. A few showers developing during the afternoon.
PRECIS: SHOWERS LATER
Mainly light to moderate wind, from a northerly direction at about 12 km/hr during the morning and continuing to be from a northerly direction, but at about 15 km/hr, during the afternoon. Gusts to around 40 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 12.5°C to 22.6°C
RAINFALL 0.9mm (amount) 55% (probability)
FOG 2% (probability)
THUNDER 4% (probability)
Mon23-10-2017A cool night then a mild to warm day. Cloudy. A few showers developing during the afternoon.
PRECIS: SHOWERS LATER
Mainly moderate wind, from a west to northwesterly direction at about 15 km/hr during the morning and from a west to southwesterly direction at about 20 km/hr during the afternoon. Gusts to around 50 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 13.4°C to 22.8°C
RAINFALL 2mm (amount) 56% (probability)
FOG 1% (probability)
THUNDER 8% (probability)
Tue24-10-2017A cool night then a mild day. A cloudy morning, but without precipitation. Becoming sunny during the afternoon.
PRECIS: BECOMING SUNNY
Mainly light to moderate wind, from a southwesterly direction at about 15 km/hr during the morning and from a south to southwesterly direction, also at about 15 km/hr, during the afternoon. Gusts to around 40 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 11.1°C to 20°C
RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 30% (probability)
FOG 1% (probability)
THUNDER 0% (probability)
Wed25-10-2017A cool night then a mild to warm day. Cloud increasing. The chance of a shower or two developing during the afternoon.
PRECIS: POSSIBLE SHOWER
Mainly moderate wind, from a northerly direction at about 15 km/hr during the morning and continuing to be from a northerly direction, but at about 20 km/hr, during the afternoon. Gusts to around 45 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 11.2°C to 23.7°C
RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 42% (probability)
FOG 4% (probability)
THUNDER 3% (probability)
Thu26-10-2017A cool night then a mild to warm day. Cloud increasing. Just a few showers during the morning. Thunderstorms developing during the afternoon.
PRECIS: THUNDERSTORMS
Mainly fresh wind, from a northerly direction at about 35 km/hr during the morning and continuing to be from a northerly direction, but at about 30 km/hr, during the afternoon. Gusts to around 65 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 13.3°C to 23.4°C
RAINFALL 6mm (amount) 62% (probability)
FOG 0% (probability)
THUNDER 30% (probability)

DAYDATEWEATHERWINDTEMPERATURES, RAINFALL, PHENOMENA
WEEK 1
Fri13-10-2017A cool night then a cool to mild day. Cloudy but without precipitation.
PRECIS: CLOUDY
Mainly moderate wind, from a westerly direction at about 15 km/hr during the morning and from a southwesterly direction, also at about 15 km/hr during the afternoon. Gusts to around 50 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 10.8°C to 18.2°C
RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 35% (probability)
FOG 0% (probability)
THUNDER 3% (probability)
Sat14-10-2017A chilly night then a mild day. Cloudy at times during the morning, but without precipitation. A sunny afternoon.
PRECIS: BECOMING SUNNY
Mainly moderate wind, from a south to southeasterly direction at about 8 km/hr during the morning and from a southerly direction at about 15 km/hr, during the afternoon. Gusts to around 50 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 9.3°C to 19.7°C
RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 14% (probability)
FOG 2% (probability)
THUNDER 0% (probability)
Sun15-10-2017A chilly night then a mild day. Sunny, but hazy at times.
PRECIS: HAZY
Mainly moderate wind, from a southerly direction at about 8 km/hr during the morning and continuing to be from a southerly direction, but at about 15 km/hr during the afternoon. Gusts to around 50 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 9.4°C to 21.1°C
RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 5% (probability)
FOG 2% (probability)
THUNDER 0% (probability)
Mon16-10-2017A cool night then a warm day. Clear skies and sunshine.
PRECIS: SUNNY
Mainly fresh to strong wind, from a northerly direction at about 15 km/hr during the morning and continuing to be from a northerly direction, but at about 25 km/hr, during the afternoon. Gusts to around 80 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 10.1°C to 26.6°C
RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 4% (probability)
FOG 3% (probability)
THUNDER 2% (probability)
Tue17-10-2017A mild night then a very warm day. Clear skies and sunshine.
PRECIS: SUNNY
Mainly fresh to strong wind, from a northerly direction at about 25 km/hr during the morning and continuing to be from a northerly direction, also at about 25 km/hr, during the afternoon. Gusts to around 80 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 14.4°C to 28.5°C
RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 3% (probability)
FOG 0% (probability)
THUNDER 0% (probability)
Wed18-10-2017A mild night then a very warm day. Cloudy but without precipitation.
PRECIS: CLOUDY
Mainly fresh to strong wind, from a northerly direction at about 25 km/hr during the morning and continuing to be from a northerly direction, also at about 25 km/hr, during the afternoon. Gusts to around 80 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 17.8°C to 29.8°C
RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 36% (probability)
FOG 0% (probability)
THUNDER 1% (probability)
Thu19-10-2017A very mild night then a mild to warm day. Cloudy. A few showers developing during the afternoon.
PRECIS: SHOWERS LATER
Mainly fresh to strong wind, from a northerly direction at about 25 km/hr during the morning and continuing to be from a northerly direction, also at about 25 km/hr, during the afternoon. Gusts to around 80 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 18.2°C to 23.4°C
RAINFALL 3mm (amount) 52% (probability)
FOG 1% (probability)
THUNDER 1% (probability)

DAYDATEWEATHERWINDTEMPERATURES, RAINFALL, PHENOMENA
WEEK 2
Fri20-10-2017A cool night then a mild day. Cloudy during the morning with patches of drizzle gradually clearing. Sunny periods during the afternoon.
PRECIS: DRIZZLE CLEARING
Mainly moderate wind, from a southerly direction at about 8 km/hr during the morning and continuing to be from a southerly direction, but at about 15 km/hr during the afternoon. Gusts to around 50 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 11.9°C to 19.9°C
RAINFALL 0.7mm (amount) 52% (probability)
FOG 6% (probability)
THUNDER 1% (probability)
Sat21-10-2017A cool night then a mild to warm day. Cloudy at times, but without precipitation.
PRECIS: PARTLY CLOUDY
Mainly moderate wind, from a northerly direction at about 8 km/hr during the morning and from a southerly direction at about 15 km/hr, during the afternoon. Gusts to around 50 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 11°C to 23.2°C
RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 22% (probability)
FOG 4% (probability)
THUNDER 3% (probability)
Sun22-10-2017A cool night then a mild to warm day. Cloudy. A few showers developing during the afternoon.
PRECIS: SHOWERS LATER
Mainly moderate wind, from a northerly direction at about 15 km/hr during the morning and continuing to be from a northerly direction, also at about 15 km/hr, during the afternoon. Gusts to around 50 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 12.5°C to 22.6°C
RAINFALL 0.9mm (amount) 55% (probability)
FOG 2% (probability)
THUNDER 4% (probability)
Mon23-10-2017A cool night then a mild to warm day. Cloudy. A few showers developing during the afternoon.
PRECIS: SHOWERS LATER
Mainly moderate wind, from a westerly direction at about 15 km/hr during the morning and from a southwesterly direction, also at about 15 km/hr during the afternoon. Gusts to around 50 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 13.4°C to 22.8°C
RAINFALL 2mm (amount) 56% (probability)
FOG 1% (probability)
THUNDER 8% (probability)
Tue24-10-2017A cool night then a mild day. A cloudy morning, but without precipitation. Becoming sunny during the afternoon.
PRECIS: BECOMING SUNNY
Mainly moderate wind, from a southwesterly direction at about 15 km/hr during the morning and from a southerly direction, also at about 15 km/hr, during the afternoon. Gusts to around 50 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 11.1°C to 20°C
RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 30% (probability)
FOG 1% (probability)
THUNDER 0% (probability)
Wed25-10-2017A cool night then a mild to warm day. Cloud increasing. The chance of a shower or two developing during the afternoon.
PRECIS: POSSIBLE SHOWER
Mainly fresh to strong wind, from a northerly direction at about 15 km/hr during the morning and continuing to be from a northerly direction, but at about 25 km/hr, during the afternoon. Gusts to around 80 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 11.2°C to 23.7°C
RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 42% (probability)
FOG 4% (probability)
THUNDER 3% (probability)
Thu26-10-2017A cool night then a mild to warm day. Cloud increasing. Just a few showers during the morning. Thunderstorms developing during the afternoon.
PRECIS: THUNDERSTORMS
Mainly fresh to strong wind, from a northerly direction at about 35 km/hr during the morning and continuing to be from a northerly direction, but at about 25 km/hr, during the afternoon. Gusts to around 80 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 13.3°C to 23.4°C
RAINFALL 6mm (amount) 62% (probability)
FOG 0% (probability)
THUNDER 30% (probability)