Experimental Melbourne CBD Long Range Weather Forecast

Based Upon Statistical Interpretation of NOAA Data

(http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready.html)

NOAA Data At: 10am, 13-1-2021

Minimum temperatures are for the night/early morning, maximum temperatures are for the daytime,
whilst precipitation amounts and probabilities are for the 24 hours from midnight.

Temperatures for the Melbourne observation site (at Olympic Park) are in brackets.

Day & DateMorningAfternoonMin
Temp
(deg C)
Max
Temp
(deg C)
Precip
Amount
(mm)
Precip
Prob
(%)
9am Wind/
3pm Wind
Melb Apt
(km/hr)
Thu-14-1-2021Partly Cloudy.
Cloudy.
14
(13.7)
22.5
(21.2)
023SW 20
SSW 20
Gusts45
Fri-15-1-2021Rain.
Thunder.
12.7
(12.7)
20.5
(19.2)
3.887WSW 25
SSW 30
Gusts60
Sat-16-1-2021Rain.
Rain.
12.6
(12.5)
20.3
(18.8)
1.980WSW 25
SSW 30
Gusts60
Sun-17-1-2021Shower.
Shower.
12.6
(12.4)
21.5
(20)
168SW 20
SSW 20
Gusts45
Mon-18-1-2021Partly Cloudy.
Cloudy.
13.5
(13.3)
22.5
(21.1)
022SW 20
SSW 20
Gusts45
Tue-19-1-2021Partly Cloudy.
Cloudy.
11.8
(11.7)
20
(18.2)
025WSW 25
SSW 30
Gusts60
Wed-20-1-2021Partly Cloudy.
Sunny.
12.9
(12.3)
22.4
(20.9)
05SSE 12
S 20
Gusts40
Thu-21-1-2021Sunny.
Sunny.
12.2
(11.6)
32
(30.9)
04N 20
N 20
Gusts50
Fri-22-1-2021Partly Cloudy.
Thunder.
19.7
(18.9)
32.8
(31.8)
2.959N 20
N 20
Gusts50
Sat-23-1-2021Sunny.
Partly Cloudy.
20.5
(19.7)
34.5
(33.4)
07N 10
S 15
Gusts45
Sun-24-1-2021Dry.
Dry.
21.5
(20.6)
37.4
(36.3)
02N 10
S 15
Gusts45
Mon-25-1-2021Cloudy.
Thunder.
24.4
(23.4)
37.1
(36.2)
1.953N 35
N 25
Gusts60
Tue-26-1-2021Partly Cloudy.
Thunder.
25
(23.9)
36.2
(35.5)
1.858N 20
N 20
Gusts50
Wed-27-1-2021Shower.
Thunder.
22.3
(21.4)
34
(33.2)
2.564N 35
NNW 30
Gusts70

The Weather Icons

Acknowledgement: Bureau of Meteorology & World Meteorological Organisation

Sunny
Dry
Haze
Mist
Fog
Partly Cloudy
Cloudy
Windy
Dust

Possible Shower
Drizzle
Shower
Snow
Rain
Thunder
Cyclone



THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR FEB/MAR/APR:

NCEP's Depiction of the Global Sea Surface Temperature Evolution

The average Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index for the past week is -0.24 (-0.46 standard deviations), the average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the past 90 days is 10.62, the average SOI for the past 30 days (click here for a picture of recent trends) is 19.4, and the latest recorded bimonthly Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is -1.16. The expected MEI, adjusted by the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index and also by recent values of the SOI, for DEC/JAN is -0.88. Such a value of MEI indicates a sea surface temperature distribution that corresponds to a weak La Niña. This suggests:

RAINFALL: There is a slightly enhanced chance that total FEB/MAR/APR rainfall will be above normal in the NORTHERN COUNTRY District, there is a slightly enhanced chance that rainfall will be below normal in the EAST GIPPSLAND District, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that rainfall will be below normal in the WEST GIPPSLAND District, but there is little indication as to whether rainfall will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: There is a slightly enhanced chance that average FEB/MAR/APR overnight temperatures will be above normal in the MALLEE and NORTHERN COUNTRY Districts, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that overnight temperatures will be above normal in the NORTH CENTRAL and NORTHEAST Districts, there is a slightly enhanced chance that overnight temperatures will be below normal in the WIMMERA District, but there is little indication as to whether overnight temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is a slightly enhanced chance that average FEB/MAR/APR daytime temperatures will be above normal in the WIMMERA, CENTRAL and WESTERN Districts, but there is little indication as to whether daytime temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.