Experimental Melbourne CBD Long Range Weather Forecast

Based Upon Statistical Interpretation of NOAA Data

(http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready.html)

NOAA Data At: 10am, 13-5-2022

Minimum temperatures are for the night/early morning, maximum temperatures are for the daytime,
whilst precipitation amounts and probabilities are for the 24 hours from midnight.

Temperatures for the Melbourne observation site (at Olympic Park) are in brackets.

Day & DateMorningAfternoonMin
Temp
(deg C)
Max
Temp
(deg C)
Precip
Amount
(mm)
Precip
Prob
(%)
9am Wind/
3pm Wind
Melb Apt
(km/hr)
Sat-14-5-2022Cloudy.
Shower.
12.4
(12)
21.7
(21.7)
151N 25
NNW 25
Gusts55
Sun-15-5-2022Partly Cloudy.
Cloudy.
12.1
(11.8)
21.4
(21.3)
032N 25
NNW 25
Gusts55
Mon-16-5-2022Rain.
Rain.
11.3
(11.3)
17.5
(17.2)
1.480WNW 20
W 25
Gusts55
Tue-17-5-2022Drizzle.
Cloudy.
8.3
(8.3)
15.8
(15.3)
0.660NW 10
WSW 10
Gusts30
Wed-18-5-2022Drizzle.
Cloudy.
7.1
(7)
15.5
(14.6)
0.660NW 10
WSW 10
Gusts30
Thu-19-5-2022Fog.
Haze.
6.1
(5.8)
16.9
(16.1)
01N 5
SSE 8
Gusts25
Fri-20-5-2022Fog.
Haze.
6.4
(6)
18.4
(17.6)
06NW 5
SSE 10
Gusts30
Sat-21-5-2022Fog.
Haze.
7.4
(6.9)
18.1
(17.6)
06NW 5
SSE 10
Gusts30
Sun-22-5-2022Shower.
Shower.
11.2
(10.6)
17.3
(16.6)
1.560NW 5
SSE 10
Gusts30
Mon-23-5-2022Fog.
Haze.
13.7
(13)
17.2
(16.4)
013NW 5
SSE 10
Gusts30
Tue-24-5-2022Shower.
Shower.
11.2
(10.8)
18.7
(18.2)
1.665N 15
SE 15
Gusts45
Wed-25-5-2022Cloudy.
Shower.
13.6
(13.3)
17.7
(17.6)
156N 25
NNW 25
Gusts55
Thu-26-5-2022Rain.
Rain.
13.8
(13.6)
16
(15.9)
4.385N 25
NNW 25
Gusts55
Fri-27-5-2022Drizzle.
Cloudy.
10.6
(10.7)
15.8
(15.4)
1.361NW 15
W 20
Gusts40

The Weather Icons

Acknowledgement: Bureau of Meteorology & World Meteorological Organisation

Sunny
Dry
Haze
Mist
Fog
Partly Cloudy
Cloudy
Windy
Dust

Possible Shower
Drizzle
Shower
Snow
Rain
Thunder
Cyclone



THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR JUN/JUL/AUG:

NCEP's Depiction of the Global Sea Surface Temperature Evolution

The average Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index for the past week is 0.13 (0.25 standard deviations), the average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the past 90 days is 13.91, the average SOI for the past 30 days is 20.07, the latest recorded bimonthly Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is -1.3. The expected MEI, adjusted by the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index and also by recent values of the SOI, for APR/MAY is -0.5. Such a value of MEI indicates a sea surface temperature distribution that corresponds to a very weak La Niña. This suggests:

RAINFALL: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that total JUN/JUL/AUG rainfall will be above normal in the MALLEE, NORTHERN COUNTRY, NORTH CENTRAL, NORTHEAST, WEST GIPPSLAND, CENTRAL and WESTERN Districts, but there is little indication as to whether total JUN/JUL/AUG rainfall will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that average JUN/JUL/AUG overnight temperatures will be below normal in the WIMMERA, EAST GIPPSLAND and CENTRAL Districts, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that overnight temperatures will be above normal in the NORTHERN COUNTRY District, but there is little indication as to whether overnight temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that average JUN/JUL/AUG daytime temperatures will be below normal in the MALLEE, NORTHERN COUNTRY, NORTH CENTRAL, NORTHEAST, EAST GIPPSLAND, WEST GIPPSLAND and CENTRAL Districts, but there is little indication as to whether daytime temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.