Experimental Melbourne CBD Long Range Weather Forecast

Based Upon Statistical Interpretation of NOAA Data

(http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready.html)

NOAA Data At: 10am, 14-4-2020

Minimum temperatures are for the night/early morning, maximum temperatures are for the daytime,
whilst precipitation amounts and probabilities are for the 24 hours from midnight.

Temperatures for the Melbourne observation site (at Olympic Park) are in brackets.


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THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR MAY/JUN/JUL:

NCEP's Depiction of the Global Sea Surface Temperature Evolution

The average Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index for the past week is 0.17 (0.33 standard deviations), the average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the past 90 days is -3.19, the average SOI for the past 30 days is -5.67, andthe latest recorded bimonthly Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is 0.15. The expected MEI, adjusted by the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index and also by recent values of the SOI, for MAR/APR is 0.27. Such a value of MEI indicates a sea surface temperature distribution that corresponds to a very weak El Niño. This suggests:

RAINFALL: There is little indication as to whether total MAY/JUN/JUL rainfall will be below, near or above normal in Victorian Districts.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that average MAY/JUN/JUL overnight temperatures will be above normal in the CENTRAL and WIMMERA Districts, but there is little indication as to whether overnight temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that average MAY/JUN/JUL daytime temperatures will be below normal in the WESTERN District, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that average MAY/JUN/JUL daytime temperatures will be above normal in the MALLEE, NORTHERN COUNTRY, EAST GIPPSLAND and CENTRAL Districts, but there is little indication as to whether daytime temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.


Day & DateMorningAfternoonMin
Temp
(deg C)
Max
Temp
(deg C)
Precip
Amount
(mm)
Precip
Prob
(%)
9am Wind/
3pm Wind
Melb Apt
(km/hr)
Wed-15-4-2020Sunny.
Partly Cloudy.
15.9
(15.3)
28.2
(27.9)
08N 25
N 25
Gusts55
Thu-16-4-2020Rain.
Rain.
16.8
(16.5)
22
(21.4)
1.691WNW 15
WSW 15
Gusts40
Fri-17-4-2020Partly Cloudy.
Cloudy.
12.8
(12.8)
19.2
(18.6)
031WNW 20
W 25
Gusts55
Sat-18-4-2020Shower.
Rain.
9.8
(9.8)
18.4
(17.7)
1.272WNW 15
WSW 15
Gusts40
Sun-19-4-2020Partly Cloudy.
Cloudy.
9.1
(8.8)
20.9
(20.2)
028N 15
NNW 15
Gusts40
Mon-20-4-2020Rain.
Rain.
12.8
(12.6)
19.8
(20)
689N 30
NNW 30
Gusts70
Tue-21-4-2020Shower.
Rain.
10.3
(10.3)
16.2
(15.4)
0.870WNW 20
W 25
Gusts55
Wed-22-4-2020Shower.
Rain.
10.4
(10.5)
17.6
(16.8)
1.172WNW 20
W 25
Gusts55
Thu-23-4-2020Shower.
Shower.
10.8
(10.7)
17.8
(16.9)
0.964WNW 20
W 25
Gusts55
Fri-24-4-2020Partly Cloudy.
Sunny.
9.8
(9.6)
19
(18.4)
09NW 10
WSW 10
Gusts30
Sat-25-4-2020Windy.
Windy.
12.2
(12)
22.2
(21.9)
013N 35
N 35
Gusts65
Sun-26-4-2020Sunny.
Partly Cloudy.
14.8
(14.4)
20.6
(20.1)
014WNW 15
WSW 15
Gusts40
Mon-27-4-2020Partly Cloudy.
Cloudy.
16.3
(16)
19.8
(19.1)
023WNW 15
WSW 15
Gusts40
Tue-28-4-2020Partly Cloudy.
Cloudy.
10.5
(10.2)
17.4
(16.6)
022WSW 8
S 12
Gusts30

The Weather Icons

Acknowledgement: Bureau of Meteorology & World Meteorological Organisation

Sunny
Dry
Haze
Mist
Fog
Partly Cloudy
Cloudy
Windy
Dust

Possible Shower
Drizzle
Shower
Snow
Rain
Thunder
Cyclone