Experimental Melbourne CBD Long Range Weather Forecast

Based Upon Statistical Interpretation of NOAA Data

(http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready.html)

NOAA Data At: 10am, 14-9-2023

Minimum temperatures are for the night/early morning, maximum temperatures are for the daytime,
whilst precipitation amounts and probabilities are for the 24 hours from midnight.

Temperatures for the Melbourne observation site (at Olympic Park) are in brackets.

Day & DateMorningAfternoonMin
Temp
(deg C)
Max
Temp
(deg C)
Precip
Amount
(mm)
Precip
Prob
(%)
9am Wind/
3pm Wind
Melb Apt
(km/hr)
Fri-15-9-2023Sunny.
Partly Cloudy.
13.8
(13.4)
22.3
(21.5)
015WNW 15
WSW 20
Gusts50
Sat-16-9-2023Windy.
Windy.
13.2
(12.9)
23.5
(23)
07N 40
N 35
Gusts70
Sun-17-9-2023Partly Cloudy.
Sunny.
12.4
(12)
21.9
(21.1)
011W 12
SW 12
Gusts35
Mon-18-9-2023Shower.
Thunder.
14.2
(13.6)
23.9
(23.4)
4.574N 15
NNW 15
Gusts50
Tue-19-9-2023Shower.
Shower.
14.2
(13.9)
20.7
(20.4)
0.866WNW 25
W 30
Gusts60
Wed-20-9-2023Rain.
Rain.
11.7
(11.8)
17.4
(17.1)
4.394WNW 35
W 40
Gusts70
Thu-21-9-2023Drizzle.
Cloudy.
8.3
(8.2)
17.2
(16.3)
0.761W 12
SW 12
Gusts35
Fri-22-9-2023Partly Cloudy.
Sunny.
8.2
(8)
18.3
(17.5)
08WSW 8
S 10
Gusts30
Sat-23-9-2023Partly Cloudy.
Sunny.
9.6
(9.3)
17.3
(16.2)
011SSW 8
S 15
Gusts30
Sun-24-9-2023Fog.
Sunny.
9.2
(8.7)
21.8
(20.9)
03NNE 8
NNE 15
Gusts35
Mon-25-9-2023Cloudy.
Shower.
10.7
(10.2)
25.8
(25.1)
1.655N 25
N 30
Gusts60
Tue-26-9-2023Shower.
Thunder.
16.7
(16.1)
22.2
(21.4)
2.865NNW 15
WNW 15
Gusts50
Wed-27-9-2023Fog.
Haze.
13.5
(12.9)
21.8
(20.9)
011SSE 5
S 15
Gusts30
Thu-28-9-2023Shower.
Shower.
14.2
(13.5)
25.1
(24.9)
260N 25
N 30
Gusts60

The Weather Icons

Acknowledgement: Bureau of Meteorology & World Meteorological Organisation

Sunny
Dry
Haze
Mist
Fog
Partly Cloudy
Cloudy
Windy
Dust

Possible Shower
Drizzle
Shower
Snow
Rain
Thunder
Cyclone






THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR OCT/NOV/DEC:

NCEP's Depiction of the Global Sea Surface Temperature Evolution

The average Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index for the past week is 1.13 (2.17 standard deviations), the average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the past 90 days is -7.54, the average SOI for the past 30 days (click here for a picture of recent trends) is -12, and the latest recorded bimonthly Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is 0.43. The expected MEI, adjusted by the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index and also by recent values of the SOI, for AUG/SEP is 1.41. Such a value of MEI indicates a sea surface temperature distribution that corresponds to an El Niño. This suggests:

RAINFALL: There is an enhanced chance that total OCT/NOV/DEC rainfall will be below normal in the MALLEE, NORTHERN COUNTRY, NORTH CENTRAL, NORTHEAST, EAST GIPPSLAND, WEST GIPPSLAND, CENTRAL and WESTERN Districts, and there is a slightly enhanced chance that rainfall will be below normal in the WIMMERA District.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: There is an enhanced chance that average OCT/NOV/DEC overnight temperatures will be below normal in the WEST GIPPSLAND District, there is a slightly enhanced chance that overnight temperatures will be below normal in the EAST GIPPSLAND District, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that overnight temperatures will be below normal in the WESTERN District, there is a slightly enhanced chance that overnight temperatures will be above normal in the MALLEE District, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that overnight temperatures will be above normal in the WIMMERA District, but there is little indication as to whether overnight temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is an enhanced chance that average OCT/NOV/DEC daytime temperatures will be above normal in all Victorian Districts.