Melbourne Long Range Weather Forecast




Experimental Melbourne CBD Long Range Weather Forecast

Based Upon Statistical Interpretation of NOAA Data

(http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready.html)

NOAA Data At: 10am, 17-10-2020

Minimum temperatures are for the night/early morning, maximum temperatures are for the daytime,
whilst precipitation amounts and probabilities are for the 24 hours from midnight.

Temperatures for the Melbourne observation site (at Olympic Park) are in brackets.



THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR NOV/DEC/JAN:

NCEP's Depiction of the Global Sea Surface Temperature Evolution

The average Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index for the past week is 0.39 (0.75 standard deviations), the average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the past 90 days is 8.52, the average SOI for the past 30 days (click here for a picture of recent trends) is 12.34, and the latest recorded bimonthly Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is -0.99. The expected MEI, adjusted by the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index and also by recent values of the SOI, for SEP/OCT is -0.1. Such a value of MEI indicates a sea surface temperature distribution that corresponds to neither a La Niña nor an El Niño. This suggests:

RAINFALL: There is an enhanced chance that total NOV/DEC/JAN rainfall will be close to normal in MALLEE, NORTHERN COUNTRY, NORTH CENTRAL, NORTHEAST, EAST GIPPSLAND, WEST GIPPSLAND and CENTRAL Districts, but there is little indication as to whether overnight temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: There is an enhanced chance that average NOV/DEC/JAN overnight temperatures will be close to normal in the MALLEE, WIMMERA and WEST GIPPSLAND Districts, but there is little indication as to whether overnight temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is an enhanced chance that that average NOV/DEC/JAN daytime temperatures will be close to normal in the MALLEE, WIMMERA, NORTHERN COUNTRY, NORTH CENTRAL, NORTHEAST, EAST GIPPSLAND, WEST GIPPSLAND and WESTERN Districts, all Victorian Districts, but there is little indication as to whether daytime temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.


Day & DateMorningAfternoonMin
Temp
(deg C)
Max
Temp
(deg C)
Precip
Amount
(mm)
Precip
Prob
(%)
9am Wind/
3pm Wind
Melb Apt
(km/hr)
Sun-18-10-2020Partly Cloudy.
Cloudy.
9.7
(9.5)
17.8
(16.3)
028SSW 15
S 20
Gusts45
Mon-19-10-2020Partly Cloudy.
Sunny.
9.4
(9.1)
18.2
(17)
012SW 8
S 10
Gusts30
Tue-20-10-2020Haze.
Haze.
8.9
(8.4)
20
(18.9)
05SSE 5
S 15
Gusts30
Wed-21-10-2020Cloudy.
Sunny.
10.6
(10.2)
20.1
(18.9)
029S 8
S 15
Gusts30
Thu-22-10-2020Partly Cloudy.
Shower.
15
(14.2)
25.7
(24.5)
0.754SSE 5
S 15
Gusts30
Fri-23-10-2020Rain.
Thunder.
17.5
(16.8)
25.2
(24.6)
8.887N 35
N 30
Gusts65
Sat-24-10-2020Rain.
Rain.
9.2
(8.9)
18.7
(17.2)
2.679SSW 15
S 20
Gusts40
Sun-25-10-2020Partly Cloudy.
Partly Cloudy.
9.8
(9.3)
18
(16.7)
012SSE 15
S 25
Gusts45
Mon-26-10-2020Partly Cloudy.
Shower.
9.1
(8.6)
21.5
(20.2)
0.753SSE 8
S 12
Gusts35
Tue-27-10-2020Partly Cloudy.
Possible Shower.
10
(9.4)
25.8
(25.3)
044N 15
N 20
Gusts45
Wed-28-10-2020Rain.
Thunder.
16.7
(16.1)
21
(20.5)
9.396N 15
NNE 20
Gusts50
Thu-29-10-2020Rain.
Rain.
14.3
(13.9)
16.7
(15)
4.891S 25
S 30
Gusts55
Fri-30-10-2020Rain.
Rain.
14.8
(14.1)
18
(16.9)
3.970SSE 15
S 25
Gusts45
Sat-31-10-2020Shower.
Shower.
13.7
(13.3)
18.3
(17.2)
5.366SW 10
S 15
Gusts40

The Weather Icons

Acknowledgement: Bureau of Meteorology & World Meteorological Organisation

Sunny
Dry
Haze
Mist
Fog
Partly Cloudy
Cloudy
Windy
Dust

Possible Shower
Drizzle
Shower
Snow
Rain
Thunder
Cyclone