Experimental Melbourne CBD Long Range Weather Forecast

Based Upon Statistical Interpretation of NOAA Data

Combined With Human Forecasts

(http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready.html)

NOAA Data At: 10am, 18-3-2023

Minimum temperatures are for the night/early morning, maximum temperatures are for the daytime,
whilst precipitation amounts and probabilities are for the 24 hours from midnight.

Temperatures for the Melbourne observation site (at Olympic Park) are in brackets.

Day & DateMorningAfternoonMin
Temp
(deg C)
Max
Temp
(deg C)
Precip
Amount
(mm)
Precip
Prob
(%)
9am Wind/
3pm Wind
Melb Apt
(km/hr)
Sun-19-3-2023Partly Cloudy.
Cloudy.
18.3
(17.7)
23.3
(22.2)
034SSW 9
S 16
Gusts30
Mon-20-3-2023Partly Cloudy.
Sunny.
15.8
(15.1)
24
(22.8)
07SSE 10
S 15
Gusts35
Tue-21-3-2023Partly Cloudy.
Shower.
15.7
(14.9)
24.5
(24)
0.653S 5
SSE 10
Gusts30
Wed-22-3-2023Drizzle.
Cloudy.
16.8
(16.3)
23.1
(22)
0.952S 12
S 20
Gusts35
Thu-23-3-2023Drizzle.
Drizzle.
16.2
(15.6)
23.2
(22.2)
0.960SSW 5
S 12
Gusts30
Fri-24-3-2023Possible Shower.
Partly Cloudy.
15.4
(14.9)
21.5
(20.4)
046SW 5
S 12
Gusts30
Sat-25-3-2023Mist.
Partly Cloudy.
14.5
(14.1)
20.6
(19.4)
038SW 5
S 12
Gusts30
Sun-26-3-2023Partly Cloudy.
Sunny.
13.6
(13.3)
21.3
(20.1)
018SSW 10
S 20
Gusts35
Mon-27-3-2023Partly Cloudy.
Sunny.
13.6
(13)
23
(21.9)
015SSE 10
S 15
Gusts35
Tue-28-3-2023Partly Cloudy.
Possible Shower.
13.8
(13.3)
24.5
(23.7)
049NNW 5
S 8
Gusts25
Wed-29-3-2023Partly Cloudy.
Possible Shower.
16.1
(15.5)
23.8
(23)
047VRB 3
S 10
Gusts30
Thu-30-3-2023Partly Cloudy.
Partly Cloudy.
15.5
(14.9)
23.6
(22.7)
017SSW 5
S 12
Gusts30
Fri-31-3-2023Mist.
Partly Cloudy.
15
(14.4)
24.3
(23.5)
028NNW 5
S 8
Gusts25
Sat-1-4-2023Shower.
Thunder.
15
(14.5)
23.8
(23.6)
3.360N 30
N 25
Gusts60

The Weather Icons

Acknowledgement: Bureau of Meteorology & World Meteorological Organisation

Sunny
Dry
Haze
Mist
Fog
Partly Cloudy
Cloudy
Windy
Dust

Possible Shower
Drizzle
Shower
Snow
Rain
Thunder
Cyclone

Definitions

IconMeaning
Sunny:Sun shines >75% of the time
Dry: As 'sunny', but used on days when Max > 30 Deg C
& Relative Humidity drops below 10%
Haze: As 'sunny', but used on days when visibility drops
below 5000 m due to smoke
Mist: Visibility below 5000 m due to water droplets but above 1000 m
(also used on days when isolated fog patches)
Fog: Visibility below 1000 m
Partly Cloudy: Sun shines between 25% & 75% of the time
Cloudy: Sun shines <25% of the time
Windy: No precipitation & wind speed averages
'fresh' (18 kts) or stronger
Dust: Visibility <1km due to dust raised by wind
Possible Shower: Isolated light precipitation <25% of the metropolitan area
Drizzle: Liquid precipitation that is almost continuous
& made up of fine droplets
Shower: Brief periods of liquid precipitation
Snow: Snow or sleet falls (includes cases of flurries and/or ice)
Rain: Liquid precipitation that is almost continuous
but droplets are of medium size or large (not fine)
Thunder: Thunder heard or lightning seen
Cyclone: Wind speed averages 'storm force' (60 kts) or stronger


Weather Pattern for Sun-19-3-2023:
Weak low over north Tasman Sea.
Light to moderate unstable southeasterly flow across Victoria.

Bay Forecast

10 to 15 knot SE wind.
Waves of 1 metre.

Melbourne Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF)

TAF YMML 1212 23005KT 9999 SCT035
FM21 21008KT 9999 BKN025
FM03 18010KT 9999 SCT035

RMK
T 26 21 17 19 Q 1019 1018 1017 1018


THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR APR/MAY/JUN:

NCEP's Depiction of the Global Sea Surface Temperature Evolution

The average Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index for the past week is 0.19 (0.37 standard deviations), the average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the past 90 days is 11.84, the average SOI for the past 30 days is 1.89, and the latest recorded bimonthly Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is -0.81. The expected MEI, adjusted by the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index and also by recent values of the SOI, for FEB/MAR is -0.2. Such a value of MEI indicates a sea surface temperature distribution that corresponds to a very weak La Niña. This suggests:

RAINFALL: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that total APR/MAY/JUN rainfall will be below normal in the WEST GIPPSLAND District, but there is little indication as to whether rainfall will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that average APR/MAY/JUN overnight temperatures will be below normal in the CENTRAL District, but there is little indication as to whether overnight temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that average APR/MAY/JUN daytime temperatures will be above normal in the WESTERN District, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that average APR/MAY/JUN daytime temperatures will be below normal in the MALLEE, EAST GIPPSLAND, WEST GIPPSLAND and CENTRAL Districts, but there is little indication as to whether daytime temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.



30 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MELBOURNE:

Today's scientists talk in terms of the continent's large climate variability from season to season, and from year to year. What causes these fluctuations? They are, in part, connected with the climate phenomenon called the Southern Oscillation, a major air pressure shift between the Asian and east Pacific regions whose best-known extremes are El Niño events and La Niña events. The Pacific Ocean is a huge mass of water which controls many climate features in its region. Its equatorial expanse, far larger than the Indian or Atlantic Oceans, is critical to the development of the Southern Oscillation and the El Niño and the La Niña. The Multivariate ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) Index, which combines the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) distribution across the Pacific with various features of the atmospheric circulation, is used to monitor the evolution of the El Niño and Southern Oscillation phenomena. The MEI is a bimonthly index which is calculated at the end of each month.

Another region of Sea Surface Temperature variability that impacts on Australian climate is that of the Indian Ocean. One mode of variability that appears to affect Australian rainfall, particularly the south east of the country, is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The IOD referred to here is defined by an index that is the difference between SST in the western (50°-70°E, 0°S-10°N) and eastern (90°-110°E, 10°-0°S) tropical Indian Oceans. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index (DMI) occurs when the western basin is warmer than average and the eastern basin is cool and hence the DMI is positive. These regions were proposed in a paper by Saji et al. (1999) on the Indian Ocean Dipole that showed a modulation in Australian seasonal rainfall with DMI positive and negative years. The current Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index (DMI) is 0.37 standard deviations.

Also impacting upon Australian climate variability is a phenomenon known as the Intra Seasonal Oscillation (ISO) (also known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), after Madden and Julian, who first identified it in the early 1970s). They discovered that, at many locations in the tropics, surface pressure and upper atmospheric winds tend to go through a coherent cycle over periods of about 40 to 50 days. It has been found that a broad area of active cloud and rainfall propagates eastwards around the equator at intervals of between about 40 and 50 days. These are not strict time limits - research over the years has pushed the limits of the oscillation's period to between about 30 and 60 days. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is presently operating in Phase 8. This is reflected in the near-equatorial enhanced convection being found over the over the Western Hemisphere (South America). Following Phase 8, the region of enhanced convection over South America often moves to Africa.

In Melbourne, at this time of the year, a combination of the MEI, the DMI, and the MJO Phase, such as what we have operating now, suggests, over the following 30 days:

RAINFALL: There is a 48% chance of it being wet, a 31% chance of normal rainfall, and a 21% chance of it being dry.

Wet
Weather
Dry
Weather
Normal
Weather


OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES:
There is a 33% chance of warm nights, a 33% chance of normal overnight temperatures, and a 34% chance of cool nights.

Warm
Nights
Cool
Nights
Normal
Nights


DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is a 33% chance of warm days, a 33% chance of normal daytime temperatures, and a 34% chance of cool days.
Warm
Days
Cool
Days
Normal
Days


INPUT DATA

Day & DateMSLPmelMSLPhayMSLPsmiMSLPgabMSLPmtgMSLPfor700
rhmel
850
temp
min
9am
12noon
3pm
3pmdpt

gfsprecip
syn
type
offprecis
climatology
prob
TS
prob
FOG
raw
MIN
raw
MAX
raw
PoP
raw
QPF
Initial1011.81015.41009.81015.61010.21018.335.120.215.1
23.3
27.4
32.3
10.7
--------
Sun-19-3-20231019.61016.51019.51018.71020.81020.847.916.3013POSSIBLE MORNING SHOWER
17-21 17.6-22.1 40% 0- 1 (34% 0)
0%0%17.925.919.1%6
Mon-20-3-20231024.91019.51027.91025.610261021.83012.1030PARTLY CLOUDY
15-23 15.7-24.2 5% 0- 0 (20% 0)
0.3%4.9%14.322.212.2%1.4
Tue-21-3-20231023.61020.21028.31028.31021.91022.677.111.68.848SHOWER OR TWO
14-23 14.8-23.5 50% 0- 8 (47% 1)
5.6%11.4%16.125.534.2%3.8
Wed-22-3-202310201017.710211018.31021.51021.4308.8029SHOWER OR TWO
17-23 17.5-24.1 70% 0- 2 (47% 1)
0.1%2.8%14.220.121%3.7
Thu-23-3-20231017.91015.110191018.91019.71018.9309.30.313SHOWER OR TWO
16-23 16.6-24 60% 0- 1 (46% 1)
0.3%2.6%13.221.316.9%5.6
Fri-24-3-20231018.710161018.61017.71020.71016.3308.2012SHOWER OR TWO
15-21 15.5-22.1 60% 0- 1 (47% 1)
0.2%10.2%13.719.921.6%1
Sat-25-3-20231017.61016.11017.11016.41020.21016308.7012SHOWER OR TWO
14-19 14.4-20.2 5% 0- 1 (47% 1
0.2%10.5%13.219.820.8%1.1
Sun-26-3-20231017.81016.11017.71016.11020.61017.1364.5028Empty
13.8-23.7 30% 1.6
0.3%1.6%12.318.328.5%1.5
Mon-27-3-20231017.71016.21021.41018.810201016.131.18.8030Empty
13.8-23.7 30% 1.6
0.3%4.5%12.220.913.1%1.3
Tue-28-3-202310161015.81018.5101710161018.236.290.615Empty
13.8-23.7 30% 1.6
5.9%10.2%12.223.142%2.5
Wed-29-3-20231016.41015.11019.11017.61016.51018.585.89.67.331Empty
13.8-23.7 30% 1.6
3.9%7.7%15.22334.9%2.7
Thu-30-3-20231016.21014.61017.91015.71016.61018.565.29.8013Empty
13.8-23.7 30% 1.6
0%1.5%15.522.423.8%6.1
Fri-31-3-20231015.61013.510171016.71015.61016.451.311015Empty
13.8-23.7 30% 1.6
3.6%12.2%14.323.438.6%2.4
Sat-1-4-20231006.41008.61005.91009.91004.31013.883.412.14.519Empty
12.9-22.3 39% 1.9
12%0.3%15.724.361.6%5.5
Day 15101510171010.41010.91016.61025.353.50.51.2oooooooooooooooooooooooo

DAYDATEWEATHER
(Melbourne)
WIND
(Melbourne Airport)
TEMPERATURES, RAINFALL, PHENOMENA
(Melbourne Olympic Park Site)
WEEK 1
Sun19-3-2023A mild night then a mild to warm day. Sunny periods during the morning. Becoming cloudy during the afternoon, but without precipitation.
PRECIS: BECOMING CLOUDY
Mainly light wind, from a south to southwesterly direction at about 9 km/hr during the morning and from a southerly direction at about 16 km/hr during the afternoon. Gusts to around 30 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 18°C to 22°C
RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 34% (probability)
FOG 0% (probability)
THUNDER 0% (probability)
Mon20-3-2023A mild night then a mild to warm day. Cloudy at times during the morning, but without precipitation. A sunny afternoon.
PRECIS: BECOMING SUNNY
Mainly light to moderate wind, from a south to southeasterly direction at about 10 km/hr during the morning and from a southerly direction at about 15 km/hr during the afternoon. Gusts to around 35 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 15°C to 23°C
RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 7% (probability)
FOG 5% (probability)
THUNDER 0% (probability)
Tue21-3-2023A mild night then a mild to warm day. Cloud increasing. A few showers developing during the afternoon.
PRECIS: SHOWERS LATER
Mainly light wind, from a southerly direction at about 5 km/hr during the morning and from a south to southeasterly direction at about 10 km/hr during the afternoon. Gusts to around 30 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 15°C to 24°C
RAINFALL 0.6mm (amount) 53% (probability)
FOG 11% (probability)
THUNDER 6% (probability)
Wed22-3-2023A mild night then a mild to warm day. Cloudy during the morning with patches of drizzle gradually clearing. A cloudy afternoon, but without precipitation.
PRECIS: DRIZZLE CLEARING
Mainly light to moderate wind, from a southerly direction at about 12 km/hr during the morning and continuing to be from a southerly direction, but at about 20 km/hr, during the afternoon. Gusts to around 35 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 16°C to 22°C
RAINFALL 0.9mm (amount) 52% (probability)
FOG 3% (probability)
THUNDER 0% (probability)
Thu23-3-2023A mild night then a mild to warm day. Cloudy with patches of drizzle.
PRECIS: DRIZZLE
Mainly light wind, from a south to southwesterly direction at about 5 km/hr during the morning and from a southerly direction at about 12 km/hr during the afternoon. Gusts to around 30 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 16°C to 22°C
RAINFALL 0.9mm (amount) 60% (probability)
FOG 3% (probability)
THUNDER 0% (probability)
Fri24-3-2023A mild night then a mild day. Cloudy at times during the morning with just the chance of a shower or two. Sunny periods during the afternoon.
PRECIS: POSSIBLE SHOWER
Mainly light wind, from a southwesterly direction at about 5 km/hr during the morning and from a southerly direction at about 12 km/hr during the afternoon. Gusts to around 30 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 15°C to 20°C
RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 46% (probability)
FOG 10% (probability)
THUNDER 0% (probability)
Sat25-3-2023A mild night then a mild day. Early mist patches followed by a sunny morning. Cloudy at times during the afternoon, but without precipitation.
PRECIS: EARLY MIST
Mainly light wind, from a southwesterly direction at about 5 km/hr during the morning and from a southerly direction at about 12 km/hr during the afternoon. Gusts to around 30 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 14°C to 19°C
RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 38% (probability)
FOG 11% (probability)
THUNDER 0% (probability)

DAYDATEWEATHER
(Melbourne)
WIND
(Melbourne Airport)
TEMPERATURES, RAINFALL, PHENOMENA
(Melbourne Olympic Park Site)
WEEK 2
Sun26-3-2023A cool night then a mild day. Cloudy at times during the morning, but without precipitation. A sunny afternoon.
PRECIS: BECOMING SUNNY
Mainly light to moderate wind, from a south to southwesterly direction at about 10 km/hr during the morning and from a southerly direction at about 20 km/hr during the afternoon. Gusts to around 35 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 13°C to 20°C
RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 18% (probability)
FOG 2% (probability)
THUNDER 0% (probability)
Mon27-3-2023A cool night then a mild day. Cloudy at times during the morning, but without precipitation. A sunny afternoon.
PRECIS: BECOMING SUNNY
Mainly light to moderate wind, from a south to southeasterly direction at about 10 km/hr during the morning and from a southerly direction at about 15 km/hr during the afternoon. Gusts to around 35 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 13°C to 22°C
RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 15% (probability)
FOG 4% (probability)
THUNDER 0% (probability)
Tue28-3-2023A cool night then a mild to warm day. Cloud increasing. The chance of a shower or two developing during the afternoon.
PRECIS: POSSIBLE SHOWER
Mainly light wind, from a north to northwesterly direction at about 5 km/hr during the morning and from a southerly direction at about 8 km/hr during the afternoon. Gusts to around 25 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 13°C to 24°C
RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 49% (probability)
FOG 10% (probability)
THUNDER 6% (probability)
Wed29-3-2023A mild night then a mild to warm day. Cloud increasing. The chance of a shower or two developing during the afternoon.
PRECIS: POSSIBLE SHOWER
Mainly light wind, from a variable direction at about 3 km/hr during the morning and from a southerly direction at about 10 km/hr during the afternoon. Gusts to around 30 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 16°C to 23°C
RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 47% (probability)
FOG 8% (probability)
THUNDER 4% (probability)
Thu30-3-2023A mild night then a mild to warm day. Cloudy at times, but without precipitation.
PRECIS: PARTLY CLOUDY
Mainly light wind, from a south to southwesterly direction at about 5 km/hr during the morning and from a southerly direction at about 12 km/hr during the afternoon. Gusts to around 30 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 15°C to 23°C
RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 17% (probability)
FOG 1% (probability)
THUNDER 0% (probability)
Fri31-3-2023A mild night then a mild to warm day. Early mist patches followed by a sunny morning. Cloudy at times during the afternoon, but without precipitation.
PRECIS: EARLY MIST
Mainly light wind, from a north to northwesterly direction at about 5 km/hr during the morning and from a southerly direction at about 8 km/hr during the afternoon. Gusts to around 25 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 14°C to 24°C
RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 28% (probability)
FOG 12% (probability)
THUNDER 4% (probability)
Sat1-4-2023A mild night then a mild to warm day. Cloud increasing. Just a few showers during the morning. Very isolated thunderstorms developing during the afternoon.
PRECIS: THUNDERSTORMS
Mainly moderate to fresh wind, from a northerly direction at about 30 km/hr during the morning and continuing to be from a northerly direction, but at about 25 km/hr, during the afternoon. Gusts to around 60 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 15°C to 24°C
RAINFALL 3.3mm (amount) 60% (probability)
FOG 0% (probability)
THUNDER 12% (probability)