Experimental Melbourne CBD Long Range Weather Forecast

Based Upon Statistical Interpretation of NOAA Data

(http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready.html)

NOAA Data At: 10am, 18-3-2023

Minimum temperatures are for the night/early morning, maximum temperatures are for the daytime,
whilst precipitation amounts and probabilities are for the 24 hours from midnight.

Temperatures for the Melbourne observation site (at Olympic Park) are in brackets.

Day & DateMorningAfternoonMin
Temp
(deg C)
Max
Temp
(deg C)
Precip
Amount
(mm)
Precip
Prob
(%)
9am Wind/
3pm Wind
Melb Apt
(km/hr)
Sun-19-3-2023Partly Cloudy.
Partly Cloudy.
18.5
(17.9)
26.6
(25.4)
010SSW 9
S 16
Gusts30
Mon-20-3-2023Partly Cloudy.
Sunny.
15.5
(14.8)
23.2
(22)
06SSE 10
S 15
Gusts35
Tue-21-3-2023Shower.
Shower.
16.7
(15.8)
25.8
(25.2)
6.167S 5
SSE 10
Gusts30
Wed-22-3-2023Partly Cloudy.
Partly Cloudy.
15.1
(14.6)
20.7
(19.6)
011S 12
S 20
Gusts35
Thu-23-3-2023Drizzle.
Cloudy.
13
(12.5)
21.1
(20.1)
2.158SSW 5
S 12
Gusts30
Fri-24-3-2023Fog.
Sunny.
13.1
(12.6)
20.4
(19.2)
011SW 5
S 12
Gusts30
Sat-25-3-2023Fog.
Sunny.
12.9
(12.6)
20.5
(19.3)
010SW 5
S 12
Gusts30
Sun-26-3-2023Partly Cloudy.
Sunny.
12.3
(12)
18.7
(17.5)
014SSW 10
S 20
Gusts35
Mon-27-3-2023Fog.
Sunny.
12
(11.5)
21
(19.9)
07SSE 10
S 15
Gusts35
Tue-28-3-2023Shower.
Thunder.
12.1
(11.6)
22.8
(21.9)
1.471NNW 5
S 8
Gusts25
Wed-29-3-2023Shower.
Thunder.
15.4
(14.8)
23.3
(22.5)
4.767VRB 3
S 10
Gusts30
Thu-30-3-2023Partly Cloudy.
Partly Cloudy.
15.8
(15.3)
22.6
(21.7)
012SSW 5
S 12
Gusts30
Fri-31-3-2023Fog.
Haze.
15
(14.4)
23.5
(22.6)
019NNW 5
S 8
Gusts25
Sat-1-4-2023Rain.
Thunder.
15.2
(14.7)
24.4
(24.2)
581N 30
N 25
Gusts60

The Weather Icons

Acknowledgement: Bureau of Meteorology & World Meteorological Organisation

Sunny
Dry
Haze
Mist
Fog
Partly Cloudy
Cloudy
Windy
Dust

Possible Shower
Drizzle
Shower
Snow
Rain
Thunder
Cyclone






THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR APR/MAY/JUN:

NCEP's Depiction of the Global Sea Surface Temperature Evolution

The average Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index for the past week is 0.19 (0.37 standard deviations), the average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the past 90 days is 11.84, the average SOI for the past 30 days is 1.89, and the latest recorded bimonthly Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is -0.81. The expected MEI, adjusted by the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index and also by recent values of the SOI, for FEB/MAR is -0.2. Such a value of MEI indicates a sea surface temperature distribution that corresponds to a very weak La Niña. This suggests:

RAINFALL: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that total APR/MAY/JUN rainfall will be below normal in the WEST GIPPSLAND District, but there is little indication as to whether rainfall will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that average APR/MAY/JUN overnight temperatures will be below normal in the CENTRAL District, but there is little indication as to whether overnight temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that average APR/MAY/JUN daytime temperatures will be above normal in the WESTERN District, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that average APR/MAY/JUN daytime temperatures will be below normal in the MALLEE, EAST GIPPSLAND, WEST GIPPSLAND and CENTRAL Districts, but there is little indication as to whether daytime temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.