Experimental Melbourne CBD Long Range Weather Forecast

Based Upon Statistical Interpretation of NOAA Data

Combined With Human Forecasts

(http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready.html)

NOAA Data At: 10am, 18-9-2022

Minimum temperatures are for the night/early morning, maximum temperatures are for the daytime,
whilst precipitation amounts and probabilities are for the 24 hours from midnight.

Temperatures for the Melbourne observation site (at Olympic Park) are in brackets.

Day & DateMorningAfternoonMin
Temp
(deg C)
Max
Temp
(deg C)
Precip
Amount
(mm)
Precip
Prob
(%)
9am Wind/
3pm Wind
Melb Apt
(km/hr)
Mon-19-9-2022Drizzle.
Partly Cloudy.
8.3
(8.2)
16.7
(15.7)
0.458WNW 16
WSW 16
Gusts35
Tue-20-9-2022Sunny.
Partly Cloudy.
8.2
(7.7)
19.6
(19.3)
011N 25
N 30
Gusts60
Wed-21-9-2022Shower.
Shower.
12.1
(11.4)
18.6
(18.2)
0.760N 15
NNE 20
Gusts50
Thu-22-9-2022Partly Cloudy.
Cloudy.
11.7
(11.2)
19.3
(18.4)
024SSW 8
S 15
Gusts35
Fri-23-9-2022Rain.
Rain.
12.4
(12.2)
18.4
(17.4)
2.880SW 15
SSW 20
Gusts45
Sat-24-9-2022Drizzle.
Cloudy.
10.6
(10.5)
16.6
(14.9)
1.364SW 25
SSW 25
Gusts50
Sun-25-9-2022Mist.
Partly Cloudy.
9.1
(8.7)
19.7
(18.7)
026E 5
SSE 10
Gusts30
Mon-26-9-2022Shower.
Thunder.
12
(11.5)
19.8
(19.3)
2.271N 35
N 30
Gusts65
Tue-27-9-2022Cloudy.
Cloudy.
10
(9.7)
17.8
(16.7)
039SW 10
S 15
Gusts40
Wed-28-9-2022Cloudy.
Sunny.
9.8
(9.4)
18.2
(17.1)
023SSW 8
S 15
Gusts30
Thu-29-9-2022Shower.
Thunder.
10.8
(10.4)
19.9
(19.4)
18.872N 15
NNW 15
Gusts50
Fri-30-9-2022Rain.
Rain.
11
(10.8)
18.5
(17.9)
5.180NW 12
SSW 15
Gusts45
Sat-1-10-2022Rain.
Rain.
11.1
(11.2)
18.8
(17.2)
3.277WSW 25
SSW 25
Gusts60
Sun-2-10-2022Cloudy.
Shower.
11
(10.8)
19.6
(18.7)
259WNW 15
WSW 20
Gusts50

The Weather Icons

Acknowledgement: Bureau of Meteorology & World Meteorological Organisation

Sunny
Dry
Haze
Mist
Fog
Partly Cloudy
Cloudy
Windy
Dust

Possible Shower
Drizzle
Shower
Snow
Rain
Thunder
Cyclone

Definitions

IconMeaning
Sunny:Sun shines >75% of the time
Dry: As 'sunny', but used on days when Max > 30 Deg C
& Relative Humidity drops below 10%
Haze: As 'sunny', but used on days when visibility drops
below 5000 m due to smoke
Mist: Visibility below 5000 m due to water droplets but above 1000 m
(also used on days when isolated fog patches)
Fog: Visibility below 1000 m
Partly Cloudy: Sun shines between 25% & 75% of the time
Cloudy: Sun shines <25% of the time
Windy: No precipitation & wind speed averages
'fresh' (18 kts) or stronger
Dust: Visibility <1km due to dust raised by wind
Possible Shower: Isolated light precipitation <25% of the metropolitan area
Drizzle: Liquid precipitation that is almost continuous
& made up of fine droplets
Shower: Brief periods of liquid precipitation
Snow: Snow or sleet falls (includes cases of flurries and/or ice)
Rain: Liquid precipitation that is almost continuous
but droplets are of medium size or large (not fine)
Thunder: Thunder heard or lightning seen
Cyclone: Wind speed averages 'storm force' (60 kts) or stronger


Weather Pattern for Mon-19-9-2022:
High near Head of the Bight.
Moderate to fresh westerly flow across Victoria.

Bay Forecast

15 knot W to SW wind.
Waves of 1 to 1.5 metres.

Melbourne Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF)

TAF YMML 1212 33008KT 9999 BKN035
FM21 29010KT 8000 -DZ SCT010 BKN035
FM03 26012KT 9999 SCT035

RMK
T 11 8 7 8 Q 1013 1013 1014 1016


THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR OCT/NOV/DEC:

NCEP's Depiction of the Global Sea Surface Temperature Evolution

The average Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index for the past week is -0.79 (-1.52 standard deviations), the average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the past 90 days is 11.21, the average SOI for the past 30 days (click here for a picture of recent trends) is 10.07, and the latest recorded bimonthly Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is -1.79. The expected MEI, adjusted by the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index and also by recent values of the SOI, for AUG/SEP is -1.45. Such a value of MEI indicates a sea surface temperature distribution that corresponds to a La Niña. This suggests:

RAINFALL: There is an enhanced chance that total OCT/NOV/DEC rainfall will be above normal in the MALLEE, NORTHERN COUNTRY, NORTH CENTRAL, NORTHEAST, EAST GIPPSLAND, WEST GIPPSLAND, CENTRAL and WESTERN Districts, and there is a slightly enhanced chance that rainfall will be above normal in the WIMMERA District.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: There is an enhanced chance that average OCT/NOV/DEC overnight temperatures will be above normal in the WEST GIPPSLAND District, there is a slightly enhanced chance that overnight temperatures will be above normal in the EAST GIPPSLAND District, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that overnight temperatures will be above normal in the WESTERN District, there is a slightly enhanced chance that overnight temperatures will be below normal in the MALLEE District, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that overnight temperatures will be below normal in the WIMMERA District, and there is little indication as to whether overnight temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is an enhanced chance that average OCT/NOV/DEC daytime temperatures will be below normal in all Victorian Districts.



30 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MELBOURNE:

Today's scientists talk in terms of the continent's large climate variability from season to season, and from year to year. What causes these fluctuations? They are, in part, connected with the climate phenomenon called the Southern Oscillation, a major air pressure shift between the Asian and east Pacific regions whose best-known extremes are El Niño events and La Niña events. The Pacific Ocean is a huge mass of water which controls many climate features in its region. Its equatorial expanse, far larger than the Indian or Atlantic Oceans, is critical to the development of the Southern Oscillation and the El Niño and the La Niña. The Multivariate ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) Index, which combines the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) distribution across the Pacific with various features of the atmospheric circulation, is used to monitor the evolution of the El Niño and Southern Oscillation phenomena. The MEI is a bimonthly index which is calculated at the end of each month.

Another region of Sea Surface Temperature variability that impacts on Australian climate is that of the Indian Ocean. One mode of variability that appears to affect Australian rainfall, particularly the south east of the country, is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The IOD referred to here is defined by an index that is the difference between SST in the western (50°-70°E, 0°S-10°N) and eastern (90°-110°E, 10°-0°S) tropical Indian Oceans. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index (DMI) occurs when the western basin is warmer than average and the eastern basin is cool and hence the DMI is positive. These regions were proposed in a paper by Saji et al. (1999) on the Indian Ocean Dipole that showed a modulation in Australian seasonal rainfall with DMI positive and negative years. The current Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index (DMI) is -1.52 standard deviations.

Also impacting upon Australian climate variability is a phenomenon known as the Intra Seasonal Oscillation (ISO) (also known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), after Madden and Julian, who first identified it in the early 1970s). They discovered that, at many locations in the tropics, surface pressure and upper atmospheric winds tend to go through a coherent cycle over periods of about 40 to 50 days. It has been found that a broad area of active cloud and rainfall propagates eastwards around the equator at intervals of between about 40 and 50 days. These are not strict time limits - research over the years has pushed the limits of the oscillation's period to between about 30 and 60 days. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is presently operating in Phase 2. This is reflected in the near-equatorial enhanced convection being found over the over the western Indian Ocean. Following Phase 2, the region of enhanced convection often moves from the western Indian Ocean to the eastern Indian Ocean.

In Melbourne, at this time of the year, a combination of the MEI, the DMI, and the MJO Phase, such as what we have operating now, suggests, over the following 30 days:

RAINFALL: There is a 50% chance of it being wet, a 31% chance of normal rainfall, and a 19% chance of it being dry.

Wet
Weather
Dry
Weather
Normal
Weather


OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES:
There is a 48% chance of warm nights, a 31% chance of normal overnight temperatures, and a 21% chance of cool nights.

Warm
Nights
Cool
Nights
Normal
Nights


DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is a 35% chance of warm days, a 33% chance of normal daytime temperatures, and a 32% chance of cool days.
Warm
Days
Cool
Days
Normal
Days


INPUT DATA

Day & DateMSLPmelMSLPhayMSLPsmiMSLPgabMSLPmtgMSLPfor700
rhmel
850
temp
min
9am
12noon
3pm
3pmdpt

gfsprecip
syn
type
offprecis
climatology
prob
TS
prob
FOG
raw
MIN
raw
MAX
raw
PoP
raw
QPF
Initial1007.41013.8998.81004.71007.71018.928.60.39.8
12.8
13.8
14.3
8
--------
Mon-19-9-20221017.51020.210131013.11018.2100830.5-0.91.624EARLY SHOWER OR TWO
8-16 8.1-17 60% 0- 1 (34% 0)
0.8%0.3%6.815.822.3%0.7
Tue-20-9-20221021.61021.11020.41023.11016.21011.4303.9020PARTLY CLOUDY
8-19 8.5-19.3 10% 0- 0 (20% 0)
0.1%1%6.519.79.7%2.3
Wed-21-9-20221015.11011.11016.210181011.91021.171.64.11.933POSSIBLE SHOWER
11-18 11.7-18.4 40% 0- 3 (47% 1)
9.8%1.3%1117.883.3%5.6
Thu-22-9-20221015.31014.51015.61016.21016.51017.460.46.8013PARTLY CLOUDY
10-19 10.5-19.9 30% 0-0.4 (23% 0)
1.5%2%11.717.89.6%2.2
Fri-23-9-202210141014.710111011.91017.71025.8905.22.525SHOWERS
11-18 11.2-19 80% 1- 5 (79% 2)
4.9%0.6%12.815.688.1%2.8
Sat-24-9-20221017.91017.91016.91009.510221015.675.8-3.31.842SHOWER OR TWO
11-15 11.1-16.7 60% 0- 2 (47% 1)
1.9%0.2%7.813.459.5%1.7
Sun-25-9-20221019.81020.21019.71015.71016.11011.9302.902MOSTLY SUNNY
8-19 8.4-20 30% 0- 1 (19% 0
3.4%6.1%6.217.315.5%2.4
Mon-26-9-20221018.51019.51018.21019.61015.41021.880.87.10.319Empty
9.5-18.5 49% 1.9
15.6%0.4%1220.658.6%4.2
Tue-27-9-20221020.31019.21018.410181021.71022.4302.40.19Empty
9.5-18.5 49% 1.9
1.7%0.8%9.316.828.9%1.4
Wed-28-9-20221020.71019.91020.31019.610211013.740.55012Empty
9.5-18.5 49% 1.9
0.2%2.6%9.316.522.3%0.8
Thu-29-9-20221012.31013.51012.21014.11010.91024.958.66.514.53Empty
9.5-18.5 49% 1.9
44.1%1.4%10.418.880.7%100.3
Fri-30-9-20221007.81008.11005.61007.310081029.465.317.27Empty
9.5-18.5 49% 1.9
9.4%0.9%1017.298.5%11.5
Sat-1-10-20221008.81008.91006.71000.31014.61026.940.20.81.541Empty
10.2-19.7 46% 2.2
5.3%0%9.815.895.3%7.2
Sun-2-10-20221015.51016.71011.91011.61014.71020.753.241.923Empty
10.2-19.7 46% 2.2
5.6%0.8%10.418.543.5%1.8
Day 151014.31016.41009.71009.21018.41025.371.1-3.35.6oooooooooooooooooooooooo

DAYDATEWEATHER
(Melbourne)
WIND
(Melbourne Airport)
TEMPERATURES, RAINFALL, PHENOMENA
(Melbourne Olympic Park Site)
WEEK 1
Mon19-9-2022A chilly night then a cool day. Cloudy during the morning with patches of drizzle gradually clearing. Sunny periods during the afternoon.
PRECIS: DRIZZLE CLEARING
Mainly light to moderate wind, from a west to northwesterly direction at about 16 km/hr during the morning and from a west to southwesterly direction, also at about 16 km/hr, during the afternoon. Gusts to around 35 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 8°C to 16°C
RAINFALL 0.4mm (amount) 58% (probability)
FOG 0% (probability)
THUNDER 1% (probability)
Tue20-9-2022A chilly night then a mild day. A sunny morning. Cloudy at times during the afternoon, but without precipitation.
PRECIS: CLOUD INCREASING
Mainly moderate to fresh wind, from a northerly direction at about 25 km/hr during the morning and continuing to be from a northerly direction, but at about 30 km/hr, during the afternoon. Gusts to around 60 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 8°C to 19°C
RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 11% (probability)
FOG 1% (probability)
THUNDER 0% (probability)
Wed21-9-2022A cool night then a cool to mild day. Cloudy at times with a few showers.
PRECIS: SHOWERS
Mainly moderate wind, from a northerly direction at about 15 km/hr during the morning and from a north to northeasterly direction at about 20 km/hr during the afternoon. Gusts to around 50 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 11°C to 18°C
RAINFALL 0.7mm (amount) 60% (probability)
FOG 1% (probability)
THUNDER 10% (probability)
Thu22-9-2022A cool night then a cool to mild day. Sunny periods during the morning. Becoming cloudy during the afternoon, but without precipitation.
PRECIS: BECOMING CLOUDY
Mainly light to moderate wind, from a south to southwesterly direction at about 8 km/hr during the morning and from a southerly direction at about 15 km/hr during the afternoon. Gusts to around 35 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 11°C to 18°C
RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 24% (probability)
FOG 2% (probability)
THUNDER 2% (probability)
Fri23-9-2022A cool night then a cool to mild day. Cloudy with rain at times.
PRECIS: RAIN
Mainly moderate wind, from a southwesterly direction at about 15 km/hr during the morning and from a south to southwesterly direction at about 20 km/hr during the afternoon. Gusts to around 45 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 12°C to 17°C
RAINFALL 2.8mm (amount) 80% (probability)
FOG 1% (probability)
THUNDER 5% (probability)
Sat24-9-2022A cool night then a cool day. Cloudy during the morning with patches of drizzle gradually clearing. A cloudy afternoon, but without precipitation.
PRECIS: DRIZZLE CLEARING
Mainly moderate wind, from a southwesterly direction at about 25 km/hr during the morning and from a south to southwesterly direction, also at about 25 km/hr, during the afternoon. Gusts to around 50 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 11°C to 15°C
RAINFALL 1.3mm (amount) 64% (probability)
FOG 0% (probability)
THUNDER 2% (probability)
Sun25-9-2022A chilly night then a cool to mild day. Early mist patches followed by a sunny morning. Cloudy at times during the afternoon, but without precipitation.
PRECIS: EARLY MIST
Mainly light wind, from an easterly direction at about 5 km/hr during the morning and from a south to southeasterly direction at about 10 km/hr during the afternoon. Gusts to around 30 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 9°C to 19°C
RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 26% (probability)
FOG 6% (probability)
THUNDER 3% (probability)

DAYDATEWEATHER
(Melbourne)
WIND
(Melbourne Airport)
TEMPERATURES, RAINFALL, PHENOMENA
(Melbourne Olympic Park Site)
WEEK 2
Mon26-9-2022A cool night then a mild day. Cloud increasing. Just a few showers during the morning. Local thunderstorms developing during the afternoon.
PRECIS: THUNDERSTORMS
Mainly fresh wind, from a northerly direction at about 35 km/hr during the morning and continuing to be from a northerly direction, but at about 30 km/hr, during the afternoon. Gusts to around 65 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 12°C to 19°C
RAINFALL 2.2mm (amount) 71% (probability)
FOG 0% (probability)
THUNDER 16% (probability)
Tue27-9-2022A chilly night then a cool to mild day. Cloudy but without precipitation.
PRECIS: CLOUDY
Mainly light to moderate wind, from a southwesterly direction at about 10 km/hr during the morning and from a southerly direction at about 15 km/hr during the afternoon. Gusts to around 40 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 10°C to 17°C
RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 39% (probability)
FOG 1% (probability)
THUNDER 2% (probability)
Wed28-9-2022A chilly night then a cool to mild day. A cloudy morning, but without precipitation. Becoming sunny during the afternoon.
PRECIS: BECOMING SUNNY
Mainly light wind, from a south to southwesterly direction at about 8 km/hr during the morning and from a southerly direction at about 15 km/hr during the afternoon. Gusts to around 30 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 9°C to 17°C
RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 23% (probability)
FOG 3% (probability)
THUNDER 0% (probability)
Thu29-9-2022A cool night then a mild day. Cloud increasing. Just a few showers during the morning. Thunderstorms developing during the afternoon.
PRECIS: THUNDERSTORMS
Mainly moderate wind, from a northerly direction at about 15 km/hr during the morning and from a north to northwesterly direction, also at about 15 km/hr, during the afternoon. Gusts to around 50 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 10°C to 19°C
RAINFALL 18.8mm (amount) 72% (probability)
FOG 1% (probability)
THUNDER 44% (probability)
Fri30-9-2022A cool night then a cool to mild day. Cloudy with rain at times.
PRECIS: RAIN
Mainly moderate wind, from a northwesterly direction at about 12 km/hr during the morning and from a south to southwesterly direction at about 15 km/hr during the afternoon. Gusts to around 45 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 11°C to 18°C
RAINFALL 5.1mm (amount) 80% (probability)
FOG 1% (probability)
THUNDER 9% (probability)
Sat1-10-2022A cool night then a cool to mild day. Cloudy with rain at times.
PRECIS: RAIN
Mainly moderate to fresh wind, from a west to southwesterly direction at about 25 km/hr during the morning and from a south to southwesterly direction, also at about 25 km/hr, during the afternoon. Gusts to around 60 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 11°C to 17°C
RAINFALL 3.2mm (amount) 77% (probability)
FOG 0% (probability)
THUNDER 5% (probability)
Sun2-10-2022A cool night then a cool to mild day. Cloudy. A few showers developing during the afternoon.
PRECIS: SHOWERS LATER
Mainly moderate wind, from a west to northwesterly direction at about 15 km/hr during the morning and from a west to southwesterly direction at about 20 km/hr during the afternoon. Gusts to around 50 km/hr.TEMPERATURES 11°C to 19°C
RAINFALL 2mm (amount) 59% (probability)
FOG 1% (probability)
THUNDER 6% (probability)