Experimental Melbourne CBD Long Range Weather Forecast

Based Upon Statistical Interpretation of NOAA Data

(http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready.html)

NOAA Data At: 10am, 20-3-2020

Minimum temperatures are for the night/early morning, maximum temperatures are for the daytime,
whilst precipitation amounts and probabilities are for the 24 hours from midnight.

Temperatures for the Melbourne observation site (at Olympic Park) are in brackets.


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THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR APR/MAY/JUN:

NCEP's Depiction of the Global Sea Surface Temperature Evolution

The average Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index for the past week is -0.31 (-0.6 standard deviations), the average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the past 90 days is -3.07, the average SOI for the past 30 days is -0.86, and the latest recorded bimonthly Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is 0.29. The expected MEI, adjusted by the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index and also by recent values of the SOI, for FEB/MAR is -0.18. Such a value of MEI indicates a sea surface temperature distribution that corresponds to a very weak La Niña. This suggests:

RAINFALL: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that total APR/MAY/JUN rainfall will be below normal in the WEST GIPPSLAND District, but there is little indication as to whether rainfall will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that average APR/MAY/JUN overnight temperatures will be below normal in the CENTRAL District, but there is little indication as to whether overnight temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that average APR/MAY/JUN daytime temperatures will be above normal in the WESTERN District, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that average APR/MAY/JUN daytime temperatures will be below normal in the MALLEE, EAST GIPPSLAND, WEST GIPPSLAND and CENTRAL Districts, but there is little indication as to whether daytime temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.


Day & DateMorningAfternoonMin
Temp
(deg C)
Max
Temp
(deg C)
Precip
Amount
(mm)
Precip
Prob
(%)
9am Wind/
3pm Wind
Melb Apt
(km/hr)
Sat-21-3-2020Shower.
Shower.
13.9
(13.5)
21.5
(20.5)
162WSW 8
S 12
Gusts30
Sun-22-3-2020Rain.
Rain.
12
(11.8)
19.5
(18.2)
1.170WSW 15
SSW 20
Gusts40
Mon-23-3-2020Fog.
Sunny.
10.8
(10.5)
19.9
(18.8)
06SSE 10
S 15
Gusts35
Tue-24-3-2020Partly Cloudy.
Sunny.
11.2
(10.8)
20.7
(19.6)
07SSE 10
S 15
Gusts35
Wed-25-3-2020Partly Cloudy.
Cloudy.
13.6
(13.2)
19.4
(18.1)
021SSW 12
S 20
Gusts40
Thu-26-3-2020Fog.
Sunny.
12.3
(11.8)
21.2
(20)
06SSE 10
S 15
Gusts35
Fri-27-3-2020Fog.
Haze.
11.2
(10.8)
23.7
(22.8)
01N 5
SSE 8
Gusts25
Sat-28-3-2020Sunny.
Partly Cloudy.
12.2
(11.7)
28.4
(27.9)
05N 25
N 25
Gusts55
Sun-29-3-2020Shower.
Thunder.
15.5
(14.9)
30.5
(30.3)
370N 25
N 25
Gusts55
Mon-30-3-2020Rain.
Rain.
14.8
(14.4)
21.4
(20.5)
2.879WSW 8
S 12
Gusts30
Tue-31-3-2020Rain.
Rain.
14.7
(14.3)
19
(17.8)
177SSW 12
S 20
Gusts40
Wed-1-4-2020Fog.
Sunny.
12.2
(11.8)
19.9
(18.8)
07SSE 10
S 15
Gusts35
Thu-2-4-2020Partly Cloudy.
Shower.
11
(10.5)
22.3
(21.5)
1.252N 5
SSE 8
Gusts25
Fri-3-4-2020Fog.
Sunny.
15.1
(14.6)
26.2
(25.3)
04NNW 5
SSE 10
Gusts25

The Weather Icons

Acknowledgement: Bureau of Meteorology & World Meteorological Organisation

Sunny
Dry
Haze
Mist
Fog
Partly Cloudy
Cloudy
Windy
Dust

Possible Shower
Drizzle
Shower
Snow
Rain
Thunder
Cyclone