Experimental Melbourne CBD Long Range Weather Forecast

Based Upon Statistical Interpretation of NOAA Data

(http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready.html)

NOAA Data At: 10am, 20-11-2023

Minimum temperatures are for the night/early morning, maximum temperatures are for the daytime,
whilst precipitation amounts and probabilities are for the 24 hours from midnight.

Temperatures for the Melbourne observation site (at Olympic Park) are in brackets.

Day & DateMorningAfternoonMin
Temp
(deg C)
Max
Temp
(deg C)
Precip
Amount
(mm)
Precip
Prob
(%)
9am Wind/
3pm Wind
Melb Apt
(km/hr)
Tue-21-11-2023Drizzle.
Thunder.
15.1
(14.6)
22
(20.7)
3.465SSW 12
S 18
Gusts35
Wed-22-11-2023Partly Cloudy.
Partly Cloudy.
14
(13.4)
21.2
(19.7)
012SSE 15
S 25
Gusts45
Thu-23-11-2023Haze.
Haze.
13.3
(12.6)
25
(23.8)
07SSE 8
S 12
Gusts35
Fri-24-11-2023Rain.
Thunder.
14.1
(13.2)
32.1
(31.4)
7.185NNE 25
N 30
Gusts65
Sat-25-11-2023Shower.
Thunder.
16.5
(15.7)
25
(24.1)
9.276ENE 5
S 15
Gusts40
Sun-26-11-2023Rain.
Thunder.
17.2
(16.7)
20.9
(19.5)
4.981SW 15
SSW 20
Gusts45
Mon-27-11-2023Rain.
Rain.
16.7
(16.1)
20.8
(19.4)
1.770SSE 15
S 25
Gusts45
Tue-28-11-2023Shower.
Thunder.
16
(15.2)
21.5
(20.3)
6.872ENE 5
S 15
Gusts40
Wed-29-11-2023Shower.
Shower.
10.6
(10.3)
18.7
(17)
4.367SSW 15
S 20
Gusts40
Thu-30-11-2023Partly Cloudy.
Sunny.
13.9
(13.5)
20.2
(18.4)
016SW 15
SSW 15
Gusts40
Fri-1-12-2023Sunny.
Partly Cloudy.
14.2
(13.8)
23.7
(22.6)
09WSW 12
SSW 15
Gusts45
Sat-2-12-2023Rain.
Thunder.
18.2
(17.7)
22.5
(21.3)
2.388SW 20
SSW 20
Gusts45
Sun-3-12-2023Partly Cloudy.
Cloudy.
11.8
(11.5)
20
(18.6)
022SW 20
SSW 20
Gusts45
Mon-4-12-2023Sunny.
Sunny.
11.4
(11)
21.4
(20)
04S 8
S 15
Gusts35

The Weather Icons

Acknowledgement: Bureau of Meteorology & World Meteorological Organisation

Sunny
Dry
Haze
Mist
Fog
Partly Cloudy
Cloudy
Windy
Dust

Possible Shower
Drizzle
Shower
Snow
Rain
Thunder
Cyclone






THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR DEC/JAN/FEB:

NCEP's Depiction of the Global Sea Surface Temperature Evolution

The average Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index for the past week is 1.44 (2.77 standard deviations), the average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the past 90 days is -11.12, the average SOI for the past 30 days (click here for a picture of recent trends) is -10.43, and the latest recorded bimonthly Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is 0.26. The expected MEI, adjusted by the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index and also by recent values of the SOI, for OCT/NOV is 1.73. Such a value of MEI indicates a sea surface temperature distribution that corresponds to an El Niño. This suggests:

RAINFALL: There is an enhanced chance that total DEC/JAN/FEB rainfall will be below normal in the NORTHERN COUNTRY and NORTHEAST Districts, there is a slightly enhanced chance that rainfall will be below normal in the WEST GIPPSLAND District, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that rainfall will be below normal in the NORTH CENTRAL and EAST GIPPSLAND Districts, but there is little indication as to whether rainfall will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: There is an enhanced chance that average DEC/JAN/FEB overnight temperatures will be above normal in the WIMMERA District, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that overnight temperatures will be below normal in the NORTH CENTRAL, EAST GIPPSLAND, WEST GIPPSLAND and CENTRAL Districts, but there is little indication as to whether overnight temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is an enhanced chance that average DEC/JAN/FEB daytime temperatures will be above normal in the NORTHERN COUNTRY and WEST GIPPSLAND Districts, there is a slightly enhanced chance that daytime temperatures will be above normal in the NORTHEAST District, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that daytime temperatures will be below normal in the CENTRAL District, but there is little indication as to whether daytime temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.