Melbourne Long Range Weather Forecast

Experimental Melbourne CBD Long Range Weather Forecast

Based Upon Statistical Interpretation of NOAA Data

Combined With Human Forecasts

(http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready.html)

NOAA Data At: 10am, 21-6-2025

Minimum temperatures are for the night/early morning, maximum temperatures are for the daytime,
whilst precipitation amounts and probabilities are for the 24 hours from midnight.

Temperatures for the Melbourne observation site (at Olympic Park) are in brackets.

Day & Date Morning Afternoon Min
Temp
(deg C) Max
Temp
(deg C) Precip
Amount
(mm) Precip
Prob
(%) 9am Wind/
3pm Wind
Melb Apt
(km/hr)
Sun-22-6-2025 Sunny.
Partly Cloudy.
5.7
(5.4) 16.1
(16) 0 5 N 20
N 25
Gusts55
Mon-23-6-2025 Shower.
Shower.
11.1
(10.6) 17.7
(18.5) 0.6 63 N 35
N 35
Gusts75
Tue-24-6-2025 Rain.
Rain.
11
(11) 14
(14.7) 4.5 87 N 30
NNW 30
Gusts65
Wed-25-6-2025 Rain.
Rain.
8
(8.3) 12.5
(12.3) 5.6 91 NW 30
W 35
Gusts65
Thu-26-6-2025 Shower.
Shower.
7.9
(8.1) 14.9
(13.9) 0.3 58 WSW 20
SW 25
Gusts55
Fri-27-6-2025 Cloudy.
Cloudy.
7.3
(7.2) 15.6
(15.1) 0 35 NW 12
W 15
Gusts40
Sat-28-6-2025 Partly Cloudy.
Cloudy.
6.3
(6.2) 15.8
(15.2) 0 24 NNW 8
SW 10
Gusts30
Sun-29-6-2025 Partly Cloudy.
Cloudy.
6.6
(6.3) 15.1
(14.7) 0 27 N 12
N 20
Gusts40
Mon-30-6-2025 Partly Cloudy.
Cloudy.
6.1
(5.9) 14.9
(14.4) 0 20 N 12
N 20
Gusts40
Tue-1-7-2025 Fog.
Haze.
6
(5.7) 14.7
(14.1) 0 19 N 5
SSE 8
Gusts25
Wed-2-7-2025 Fog.
Haze.
6.2
(5.9) 14.7
(14) 0 19 N 5
SSE 8
Gusts25
Thu-3-7-2025 Fog.
Sunny.
6.4
(6.2) 13.9
(13.2) 0 25 VRB 3
S 8
Gusts20
Fri-4-7-2025 Fog.
Partly Cloudy.
6.4
(6) 16.6
(16.1) 0 21 N 10
NNE 20
Gusts40
Sat-5-7-2025 Shower.
Shower.
7.9
(7.4) 15.4
(15.9) 2.1 61 N 30
N 35
Gusts75

Day & Date	Morning	Afternoon	Min Temp (deg C)	Max Temp (deg C)	Precip Amount (mm)	Precip Prob (%)	9am Wind/ 3pm Wind Melb Apt (km/hr)
Sun-22-6-2025	Sunny.	Partly Cloudy.	5.7 (5.4)	16.1 (16)	0	5	N 20 N 25 Gusts55
Mon-23-6-2025	Shower.	Shower.	11.1 (10.6)	17.7 (18.5)	0.6	63	N 35 N 35 Gusts75
Tue-24-6-2025	Rain.	Rain.	11 (11)	14 (14.7)	4.5	87	N 30 NNW 30 Gusts65
Wed-25-6-2025	Rain.	Rain.	8 (8.3)	12.5 (12.3)	5.6	91	NW 30 W 35 Gusts65
Thu-26-6-2025	Shower.	Shower.	7.9 (8.1)	14.9 (13.9)	0.3	58	WSW 20 SW 25 Gusts55
Fri-27-6-2025	Cloudy.	Cloudy.	7.3 (7.2)	15.6 (15.1)	0	35	NW 12 W 15 Gusts40
Sat-28-6-2025	Partly Cloudy.	Cloudy.	6.3 (6.2)	15.8 (15.2)	0	24	NNW 8 SW 10 Gusts30
Sun-29-6-2025	Partly Cloudy.	Cloudy.	6.6 (6.3)	15.1 (14.7)	0	27	N 12 N 20 Gusts40
Mon-30-6-2025	Partly Cloudy.	Cloudy.	6.1 (5.9)	14.9 (14.4)	0	20	N 12 N 20 Gusts40
Tue-1-7-2025	Fog.	Haze.	6 (5.7)	14.7 (14.1)	0	19	N 5 SSE 8 Gusts25
Wed-2-7-2025	Fog.	Haze.	6.2 (5.9)	14.7 (14)	0	19	N 5 SSE 8 Gusts25
Thu-3-7-2025	Fog.	Sunny.	6.4 (6.2)	13.9 (13.2)	0	25	VRB 3 S 8 Gusts20
Fri-4-7-2025	Fog.	Partly Cloudy.	6.4 (6)	16.6 (16.1)	0	21	N 10 NNE 20 Gusts40
Sat-5-7-2025	Shower.	Shower.	7.9 (7.4)	15.4 (15.9)	2.1	61	N 30 N 35 Gusts75

The Weather Icons

Acknowledgement: Bureau of Meteorology & World Meteorological Organisation

Sunny
Dry
Haze
Mist
Fog
Partly Cloudy
Cloudy
Windy
Dust

Possible Shower
Drizzle
Shower
Snow
Rain
Thunder
Cyclone

Definitions

Icon Meaning
Sunny: Sun shines >75% of the time
Dry: As 'sunny', but used on days when Max > 30 Deg C
& Relative Humidity drops below 10%
Haze: As 'sunny', but used on days when visibility drops
below 5000 m due to smoke
Mist: Visibility below 5000 m due to water droplets but above 1000 m
(also used on days when isolated fog patches)
Fog: Visibility below 1000 m
Partly Cloudy: Sun shines between 25% & 75% of the time
Cloudy: Sun shines <25% of the time
Windy: No precipitation & wind speed averages
'fresh' (18 kts) or stronger
Dust: Visibility <1km due to dust raised by wind
Possible Shower: Isolated light precipitation <25% of the metropolitan area
Drizzle: Liquid precipitation that is almost continuous
& made up of fine droplets
Shower: Brief periods of liquid precipitation
Snow: Snow or sleet falls (includes cases of flurries and/or ice)
Rain: Liquid precipitation that is almost continuous
but droplets are of medium size or large (not fine)
Thunder: Thunder heard or lightning seen
Cyclone: Wind speed averages 'storm force' (60 kts) or stronger

Icon	Meaning
Sunny:	Sun shines >75% of the time
Dry:	As 'sunny', but used on days when Max > 30 Deg C & Relative Humidity drops below 10%
Haze:	As 'sunny', but used on days when visibility drops below 5000 m due to smoke
Mist:	Visibility below 5000 m due to water droplets but above 1000 m (also used on days when isolated fog patches)
Fog:	Visibility below 1000 m
Partly Cloudy:	Sun shines between 25% & 75% of the time
Cloudy:	Sun shines <25% of the time
Windy:	No precipitation & wind speed averages 'fresh' (18 kts) or stronger
Dust:	Visibility <1km due to dust raised by wind
Possible Shower:	Isolated light precipitation <25% of the metropolitan area
Drizzle:	Liquid precipitation that is almost continuous & made up of fine droplets
Shower:	Brief periods of liquid precipitation
Snow:	Snow or sleet falls (includes cases of flurries and/or ice)
Rain:	Liquid precipitation that is almost continuous but droplets are of medium size or large (not fine)
Thunder:	Thunder heard or lightning seen
Cyclone:	Wind speed averages 'storm force' (60 kts) or stronger

Weather Pattern for Sun-22-6-2025:
High over Tasman Sea.
Moderate to fresh northerly flow across Victoria.

Bay Forecast

15 knot N to NW wind.
Waves of 1 to 1.5 metres.

Melbourne Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF)

TAF YMML 1212 36005KT CAVOK
FM21 36015G30KT
FM03 36010KT 9999 SCT100

RMK
T 9 6 4 4 Q 1028 1027 1026 1027

THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR JUL/AUG/SEP:

NCEP's Depiction of the Global Sea Surface Temperature Evolution

INPUT DATA

Day & Date MSLPmel MSLPhay MSLPsmi MSLPgab MSLPmtg MSLPfor 700
rhmel 850
temp min
9am
12noon
3pm
3pmdpt
gfsprecip syn
type offprecis
climatology prob
TS prob
FOG raw
MIN raw
MAX raw
PoP raw
QPF
Initial 1030.9 1031.3 1028.6 1030.6 1028.4 1015.7 11.8 7.5 4.8
8.8
12.4
12.7
5.6 - - - - - - - -
Sun-22-6-2025 1027.8 1028.2 1025.3 1027.8 1021.9 1015.5 30 6.7 0 20 SUNNY
5-16 5.3-16.1 5% 0- 0 (1% 0) 0.2% 1.1% 4.7 15.1 9.5% 1.9
Mon-23-6-2025 1014.3 1018.2 1010.2 1019.2 1007.4 1017.8 90 7.4 2.5 35 SHOWER OR TWO
10-19 10.5-18.2 50% 0- 1 (47% 1) 2% 0.3% 10.8 16.2 76% 2.9
Tue-24-6-2025 1002.6 1009.5 994.6 1004 998.6 1022.6 67.5 -0.7 6.8 37 SHOWERS
11-14 11-13.3 80% 1- 7 (85% 3) 3.2% 0.1% 10.1 14.4 94.5% 3.9
Wed-25-6-2025 1005.2 1013.9 998.7 1002.7 1010.3 1029.2 90 0 9.2 39 SHOWERS
7-11 6.7-11.2 90% 2- 10 (82% 2) 2.1% 0.3% 8.8 13.8 96.2% 3.7
Thu-26-6-2025 1020.9 1024.7 1014.7 1012.3 1024.7 1030.1 30 1.2 1.4 41 POSSIBLE SHOWER
7-14 6.8-15 40% 0- 1 (46% 1) 1% 0.5% 7.6 13.4 94.3% 4.5
Fri-27-6-2025 1029.8 1030.5 1026.3 1027.5 1029.1 1031.2 30 0.8 0.1 23 PARTLY CLOUDY
6-15 6.1-15.5 30% 0- 1 (26% 0) 0.6% 0.5% 6.7 14.9 37.9% 0.9
Sat-28-6-2025 1029.8 1030 1026.9 1028.4 1029.7 1030.6 31.7 1.9 0 7 PARTLY CLOUDY
5-15 5.1-15.6 20% 0- 0 (28% 0 0.6% 0.6% 4.9 15.2 23.8% 0.8
Sun-29-6-2025 1029.4 1028.9 1028.2 1030 1027.6 1025.8 30 0.9 0 4 Empty
7.8-14.2 47% 1.7 0.5% 2.9% 3.6 14.6 12.1% 0.8
Mon-30-6-2025 1031.7 1030.5 1029.8 1031.8 1030.3 1025.7 30 1.8 0 4 Empty
7.8-14.2 47% 1.7 0.4% 3.1% 3.6 14.6 8.2% 0.9
Tue-1-7-2025 1032.7 1030.9 1033.7 1034 1032.2 1024.6 30 3.2 0 16 Empty
7.3-14.1 49% 1.5 0.2% 15.1% 3.9 14.2 6% 1.2
Wed-2-7-2025 1030.5 1029.6 1031.7 1030.3 1030.2 1022.4 30 3.7 0 16 Empty
7.3-14.1 49% 1.5 0.2% 15.1% 4 14.1 6% 1.2
Thu-3-7-2025 1031 1030.2 1030.6 1029.1 1030.1 1021.9 30 3.8 0 12 Empty
7.3-14.1 49% 1.5 0.1% 7.4% 4.4 12.7 30.5% 0.8
Fri-4-7-2025 1031.8 1031.1 1033 1033.5 1029.9 1014.3 30 6 0 34 Empty
7.3-14.1 49% 1.5 0.4% 9.9% 4.5 17.3 7.5% 0.4
Sat-5-7-2025 1027.4 1028.9 1026 1032 1020.5 1022.2 30 5.3 4.5 36 Empty
7.3-14.1 49% 1.5 0.8% 0.2% 7 15.7 44.3% 1.4
Day 15 1022.6 1025 1017.1 1022.1 1022.1 1029.2 32.8 1.9 6.8 ooo ooo ooo ooo ooo ooo ooo ooo

Day & Date	MSLPmel	MSLPhay	MSLPsmi	MSLPgab	MSLPmtg	MSLPfor	700 rhmel	850 temp	min 9am 12noon 3pm 3pmdpt gfsprecip	syn type	offprecis climatology	prob TS	prob FOG	raw MIN	raw MAX	raw PoP	raw QPF
Initial	1030.9	1031.3	1028.6	1030.6	1028.4	1015.7	11.8	7.5	4.8 8.8 12.4 12.7 5.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Sun-22-6-2025	1027.8	1028.2	1025.3	1027.8	1021.9	1015.5	30	6.7	0	20	SUNNY 5-16 5.3-16.1 5% 0- 0 (1% 0)	0.2%	1.1%	4.7	15.1	9.5%	1.9
Mon-23-6-2025	1014.3	1018.2	1010.2	1019.2	1007.4	1017.8	90	7.4	2.5	35	SHOWER OR TWO 10-19 10.5-18.2 50% 0- 1 (47% 1)	2%	0.3%	10.8	16.2	76%	2.9
Tue-24-6-2025	1002.6	1009.5	994.6	1004	998.6	1022.6	67.5	-0.7	6.8	37	SHOWERS 11-14 11-13.3 80% 1- 7 (85% 3)	3.2%	0.1%	10.1	14.4	94.5%	3.9
Wed-25-6-2025	1005.2	1013.9	998.7	1002.7	1010.3	1029.2	90	0	9.2	39	SHOWERS 7-11 6.7-11.2 90% 2- 10 (82% 2)	2.1%	0.3%	8.8	13.8	96.2%	3.7
Thu-26-6-2025	1020.9	1024.7	1014.7	1012.3	1024.7	1030.1	30	1.2	1.4	41	POSSIBLE SHOWER 7-14 6.8-15 40% 0- 1 (46% 1)	1%	0.5%	7.6	13.4	94.3%	4.5
Fri-27-6-2025	1029.8	1030.5	1026.3	1027.5	1029.1	1031.2	30	0.8	0.1	23	PARTLY CLOUDY 6-15 6.1-15.5 30% 0- 1 (26% 0)	0.6%	0.5%	6.7	14.9	37.9%	0.9
Sat-28-6-2025	1029.8	1030	1026.9	1028.4	1029.7	1030.6	31.7	1.9	0	7	PARTLY CLOUDY 5-15 5.1-15.6 20% 0- 0 (28% 0	0.6%	0.6%	4.9	15.2	23.8%	0.8
Sun-29-6-2025	1029.4	1028.9	1028.2	1030	1027.6	1025.8	30	0.9	0	4	Empty 7.8-14.2 47% 1.7	0.5%	2.9%	3.6	14.6	12.1%	0.8
Mon-30-6-2025	1031.7	1030.5	1029.8	1031.8	1030.3	1025.7	30	1.8	0	4	Empty 7.8-14.2 47% 1.7	0.4%	3.1%	3.6	14.6	8.2%	0.9
Tue-1-7-2025	1032.7	1030.9	1033.7	1034	1032.2	1024.6	30	3.2	0	16	Empty 7.3-14.1 49% 1.5	0.2%	15.1%	3.9	14.2	6%	1.2
Wed-2-7-2025	1030.5	1029.6	1031.7	1030.3	1030.2	1022.4	30	3.7	0	16	Empty 7.3-14.1 49% 1.5	0.2%	15.1%	4	14.1	6%	1.2
Thu-3-7-2025	1031	1030.2	1030.6	1029.1	1030.1	1021.9	30	3.8	0	12	Empty 7.3-14.1 49% 1.5	0.1%	7.4%	4.4	12.7	30.5%	0.8
Fri-4-7-2025	1031.8	1031.1	1033	1033.5	1029.9	1014.3	30	6	0	34	Empty 7.3-14.1 49% 1.5	0.4%	9.9%	4.5	17.3	7.5%	0.4
Sat-5-7-2025	1027.4	1028.9	1026	1032	1020.5	1022.2	30	5.3	4.5	36	Empty 7.3-14.1 49% 1.5	0.8%	0.2%	7	15.7	44.3%	1.4
Day 15	1022.6	1025	1017.1	1022.1	1022.1	1029.2	32.8	1.9	6.8	ooo	ooo	ooo	ooo	ooo	ooo	ooo	ooo


DAY	DATE	WEATHER (Melbourne)	WIND (Melbourne Airport)	TEMPERATURES, RAINFALL, PHENOMENA (Melbourne Olympic Park Site)
WEEK 1
Sun	22-6-2025	A cold night then a cool to mild day. A sunny morning. Cloudy at times during the afternoon, but without precipitation. PRECIS: CLOUD INCREASING	Mainly moderate to fresh wind, from a northerly direction at about 20 km/hr during the morning and continuing to be from a northerly direction, but at about 25 km/hr, during the afternoon. Gusts to around 55 km/hr.	TEMPERATURES 5.4°C to 16°C RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 5% (probability) FOG 1% (probability) THUNDER 0% (probability)

Mon	23-6-2025	A cool night then a cool to mild day. Cloudy at times with a few showers. PRECIS: SHOWERS	Mainly fresh wind, from a northerly direction at about 35 km/hr during the morning and continuing to be from a northerly direction, also at about 35 km/hr, during the afternoon. Gusts to around 75 km/hr.	TEMPERATURES 10.6°C to 18.5°C RAINFALL 0.6mm (amount) 63% (probability) FOG 0% (probability) THUNDER 2% (probability)

Tue	24-6-2025	A cool night then a cool day. Cloudy with rain at times. PRECIS: RAIN	Mainly fresh wind, from a northerly direction at about 30 km/hr during the morning and from a north to northwesterly direction, also at about 30 km/hr, during the afternoon. Gusts to around 65 km/hr.	TEMPERATURES 11°C to 14.7°C RAINFALL 4.5mm (amount) 87% (probability) FOG 0% (probability) THUNDER 3% (probability)

Wed	25-6-2025	A chilly night then a very cool day. Cloudy with rain at times. PRECIS: RAIN	Mainly fresh wind, from a northwesterly direction at about 30 km/hr during the morning and from a westerly direction at about 35 km/hr during the afternoon. Gusts to around 65 km/hr.	TEMPERATURES 8.3°C to 12.3°C RAINFALL 5.6mm (amount) 91% (probability) FOG 0% (probability) THUNDER 2% (probability)

Thu	26-6-2025	A chilly night then a cool day. Cloudy at times with a few showers. PRECIS: SHOWERS	Mainly moderate to fresh wind, from a west to southwesterly direction at about 20 km/hr during the morning and from a southwesterly direction at about 25 km/hr during the afternoon. Gusts to around 55 km/hr.	TEMPERATURES 8.1°C to 13.9°C RAINFALL 0.3mm (amount) 58% (probability) FOG 0% (probability) THUNDER 1% (probability)

Fri	27-6-2025	A chilly night then a cool day. Cloudy but without precipitation. PRECIS: CLOUDY	Mainly light to moderate wind, from a northwesterly direction at about 12 km/hr during the morning and from a westerly direction at about 15 km/hr during the afternoon. Gusts to around 40 km/hr.	TEMPERATURES 7.2°C to 15.1°C RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 35% (probability) FOG 0% (probability) THUNDER 1% (probability)

Sat	28-6-2025	A chilly night then a cool day. Sunny periods during the morning. Becoming cloudy during the afternoon, but without precipitation. PRECIS: BECOMING CLOUDY	Mainly light wind, from a north to northwesterly direction at about 8 km/hr during the morning and from a southwesterly direction at about 10 km/hr during the afternoon. Gusts to around 30 km/hr.	TEMPERATURES 6.2°C to 15.2°C RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 24% (probability) FOG 1% (probability) THUNDER 1% (probability)


DAY	DATE	WEATHER (Melbourne)	WIND (Melbourne Airport)	TEMPERATURES, RAINFALL, PHENOMENA (Melbourne Olympic Park Site)
WEEK 2
Sun	29-6-2025	A chilly night then a cool day. Sunny periods during the morning. Becoming cloudy during the afternoon, but without precipitation. PRECIS: BECOMING CLOUDY	Mainly light to moderate wind, from a northerly direction at about 12 km/hr during the morning and continuing to be from a northerly direction, but at about 20 km/hr, during the afternoon. Gusts to around 40 km/hr.	TEMPERATURES 6.3°C to 14.7°C RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 27% (probability) FOG 3% (probability) THUNDER 0% (probability)

Mon	30-6-2025	A cold night then a cool day. Sunny periods during the morning. Becoming cloudy during the afternoon, but without precipitation. PRECIS: BECOMING CLOUDY	Mainly light to moderate wind, from a northerly direction at about 12 km/hr during the morning and continuing to be from a northerly direction, but at about 20 km/hr, during the afternoon. Gusts to around 40 km/hr.	TEMPERATURES 5.9°C to 14.4°C RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 20% (probability) FOG 3% (probability) THUNDER 0% (probability)

Tue	1-7-2025	A cold night then a cool day. Fog then sunny but hazy at times. PRECIS: EARLY FOG	Mainly light wind, from a northerly direction at about 5 km/hr during the morning and from a south to southeasterly direction at about 8 km/hr during the afternoon. Gusts to around 25 km/hr.	TEMPERATURES 5.7°C to 14.1°C RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 19% (probability) FOG 15% (probability) THUNDER 0% (probability)

Wed	2-7-2025	A cold night then a cool day. Fog then sunny but hazy at times. PRECIS: EARLY FOG	Mainly light wind, from a northerly direction at about 5 km/hr during the morning and from a south to southeasterly direction at about 8 km/hr during the afternoon. Gusts to around 25 km/hr.	TEMPERATURES 5.9°C to 14°C RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 19% (probability) FOG 15% (probability) THUNDER 0% (probability)

Thu	3-7-2025	A chilly night then a cool day. Patches of early fog then sunny. PRECIS: EARLY FOG	Mainly very light wind, from a variable direction at about 3 km/hr during the morning and from a southerly direction at about 8 km/hr during the afternoon. Gusts to around 20 km/hr.	TEMPERATURES 6.2°C to 13.2°C RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 25% (probability) FOG 7% (probability) THUNDER 0% (probability)

Fri	4-7-2025	A chilly night then a cool to mild day. Early fog followed by a sunny morning. Cloudy at times during the afternoon, but without precipitation. PRECIS: EARLY FOG	Mainly light to moderate wind, from a northerly direction at about 10 km/hr during the morning and from a north to northeasterly direction at about 20 km/hr during the afternoon. Gusts to around 40 km/hr.	TEMPERATURES 6°C to 16.1°C RAINFALL 0mm (amount) 21% (probability) FOG 10% (probability) THUNDER 0% (probability)

Sat	5-7-2025	A chilly night then a cool day. Cloudy at times with a few showers. PRECIS: SHOWERS	Mainly fresh wind, from a northerly direction at about 30 km/hr during the morning and continuing to be from a northerly direction, but at about 35 km/hr, during the afternoon. Gusts to around 75 km/hr.	TEMPERATURES 7.4°C to 15.9°C RAINFALL 2.1mm (amount) 61% (probability) FOG 0% (probability) THUNDER 1% (probability)