Experimental Melbourne CBD Long Range Weather Forecast

Based Upon Statistical Interpretation of NOAA Data

(http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready.html)

NOAA Data At: 10am, 21-11-2020

Minimum temperatures are for the night/early morning, maximum temperatures are for the daytime,
whilst precipitation amounts and probabilities are for the 24 hours from midnight.

Temperatures for the Melbourne observation site (at Olympic Park) are in brackets.



THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR DEC/JAN/FEB:

NCEP's Depiction of the Global Sea Surface Temperature Evolution

The average Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index for the past week is -0.05 (-0.1 standard deviations), the average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the past 90 days is 8.37, the average SOI for the past 30 days (click here for a picture of recent trends) is 4.53, and the latest recorded bimonthly Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is -1.19. The expected MEI, adjusted by the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index and also by recent values of the SOI, for OCT/NOV is -0.5. Such a value of MEI indicates a sea surface temperature distribution that corresponds to a very weak La Niña. This suggests:

RAINFALL: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that total DEC/JAN/FEB rainfall will be above normal in the NORTHERN COUNTRY, NORTH CENTRAL, NORTHEAST, EAST GIPPSLAND and WEST GIPPSLAND Districts, but there is little indication as to whether rainfall will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that average DEC/JAN/FEB overnight temperatures will be below normal in the WIMMERA District, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that overnight temperatures will be above normal in the NORTH CENTRAL, EAST GIPPSLAND, WEST GIPPSLAND and CENTRAL Districts, but there is little indication as to whether overnight temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that average DEC/JAN/FEB daytime temperatures will be below normal in the NORTHERN COUNTRY, NORTHEAST and WEST GIPPSLAND Districts, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that daytime temperatures will be above normal in the CENTRAL District, but there is little indication as to whether daytime temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.


Day & DateMorningAfternoonMin
Temp
(deg C)
Max
Temp
(deg C)
Precip
Amount
(mm)
Precip
Prob
(%)
9am Wind/
3pm Wind
Melb Apt
(km/hr)
Sun-22-11-2020Shower.
Thunder.
19.8
(19)
25.5
(24.4)
8.773NNW 5
ESE 14
Gusts40
Mon-23-11-2020Rain.
Thunder.
15.9
(15.6)
21
(19.3)
5.192WSW 25
SSW 25
Gusts60
Tue-24-11-2020Partly Cloudy.
Cloudy.
9.9
(9.6)
19.9
(18.5)
020SSW 15
S 20
Gusts40
Wed-25-11-2020Sunny.
Partly Cloudy.
12.1
(11.7)
29.4
(28.2)
06N 10
N 15
Gusts40
Thu-26-11-2020Partly Cloudy.
Thunder.
16.2
(15.5)
31.4
(30.2)
2.853NNE 8
NNE 15
Gusts35
Fri-27-11-2020Dry.
Dry.
19
(18.3)
35.7
(34.9)
06N 25
N 30
Gusts60
Sat-28-11-2020Partly Cloudy.
Sunny.
18.4
(17.7)
22.7
(21)
016SSW 15
S 20
Gusts40
Sun-29-11-2020Fog.
Partly Cloudy.
18
(17.1)
31.9
(30.9)
07N 15
N 20
Gusts45
Mon-30-11-2020Rain.
Thunder.
19.2
(18.7)
25.2
(24.2)
4.598SW 10
S 15
Gusts40
Tue-1-12-2020Partly Cloudy.
Cloudy.
12.4
(12.2)
20.3
(18.9)
025SW 20
SSW 20
Gusts45
Wed-2-12-2020Partly Cloudy.
Partly Cloudy.
12.3
(11.8)
22.6
(21.3)
06SSW 5
S 15
Gusts40
Thu-3-12-2020Partly Cloudy.
Sunny.
13.5
(13)
19.4
(18)
016SSW 15
S 20
Gusts45
Fri-4-12-2020Partly Cloudy.
Sunny.
13.6
(13.1)
19.5
(18)
015SSW 15
S 20
Gusts45
Sat-5-12-2020Partly Cloudy.
Sunny.
13.4
(13)
22.1
(20.7)
07SSW 10
S 15
Gusts40

The Weather Icons

Acknowledgement: Bureau of Meteorology & World Meteorological Organisation

Sunny
Dry
Haze
Mist
Fog
Partly Cloudy
Cloudy
Windy
Dust

Possible Shower
Drizzle
Shower
Snow
Rain
Thunder
Cyclone