Experimental Melbourne CBD Long Range Weather Forecast

Based Upon Statistical Interpretation of NOAA Data

(http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready.html)

NOAA Data At: 10am, 22-1-2021

Minimum temperatures are for the night/early morning, maximum temperatures are for the daytime,
whilst precipitation amounts and probabilities are for the 24 hours from midnight.

Temperatures for the Melbourne observation site (at Olympic Park) are in brackets.

Day & DateMorningAfternoonMin
Temp
(deg C)
Max
Temp
(deg C)
Precip
Amount
(mm)
Precip
Prob
(%)
9am Wind/
3pm Wind
Melb Apt
(km/hr)
Sat-23-1-2021Fog.
Haze.
15.7
(15.1)
30.1
(28.9)
02S 5
S 15
Gusts35
Sun-24-1-2021Dry.
Dry.
17.2
(16.5)
37.3
(36.1)
05N 10
S 15
Gusts45
Mon-25-1-2021Shower.
Thunder.
23.5
(22.6)
37.8
(36.9)
5.567N 35
NNW 30
Gusts70
Tue-26-1-2021Rain.
Thunder.
20.1
(19.6)
23.8
(22.4)
5.975SW 20
SSW 20
Gusts45
Wed-27-1-2021Shower.
Shower.
15.8
(15.2)
23.7
(22.4)
0.965SW 10
S 20
Gusts40
Thu-28-1-2021Rain.
Thunder.
17.4
(16.6)
26.7
(25.8)
6.580SW 5
S 15
Gusts40
Fri-29-1-2021Rain.
Thunder.
15.9
(15.5)
20.6
(18.6)
4.690SSW 20
S 30
Gusts55
Sat-30-1-2021Drizzle.
Drizzle.
14.7
(14.2)
21.9
(20.4)
0.860S 15
S 20
Gusts40
Sun-31-1-2021Partly Cloudy.
Partly Cloudy.
14.6
(14)
21.9
(20.5)
09S 15
S 20
Gusts40
Mon-1-2-2021Haze.
Haze.
13.7
(13)
26.3
(25)
06S 8
S 15
Gusts35
Tue-2-2-2021Partly Cloudy.
Partly Cloudy.
16.5
(15.9)
23.5
(22.2)
012S 15
S 20
Gusts40
Wed-3-2-2021Partly Cloudy.
Sunny.
15.9
(15.1)
26.9
(25.4)
011SSE 20
SSE 25
Gusts50
Thu-4-2-2021Sunny.
Partly Cloudy.
17.3
(16.8)
26
(24.8)
07SW 10
S 15
Gusts40
Fri-5-2-2021Drizzle.
Cloudy.
17.4
(16.7)
24.4
(23)
1.459S 15
S 20
Gusts40

The Weather Icons

Acknowledgement: Bureau of Meteorology & World Meteorological Organisation

Sunny
Dry
Haze
Mist
Fog
Partly Cloudy
Cloudy
Windy
Dust

Possible Shower
Drizzle
Shower
Snow
Rain
Thunder
Cyclone



THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR FEB/MAR/APR:

NCEP's Depiction of the Global Sea Surface Temperature Evolution

The average Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index for the past week is -0.36 (-0.69 standard deviations), the average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the past 90 days is 12.93, the average SOI for the past 30 days (click here for a picture of recent trends) is 18.56, and the latest recorded bimonthly Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is -1.16. The expected MEI, adjusted by the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index and also by recent values of the SOI, for NOV/DEC is -1.01. Such a value of MEI indicates a sea surface temperature distribution that corresponds to a La Niña. This suggests:

RAINFALL: There is an enhanced chance that total FEB/MAR/APR rainfall will be above normal in the NORTHERN COUNTRY, there is an enhanced chance that rainfall will be below normal in the EAST GIPPSLAND District, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that rainfall will be below normal in the WEST GIPPSLAND District, but there is little indication as to whether rainfall will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: There is an enhanced chance that average FEB/MAR/APR overnight temperatures will be above normal in the NORTHERN COUNTRY District, there is a slightly enhanced chance that overnight temperatures will be above normal in the MALLEE District, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that overnight temperatures will be above normal in the NORTH CENTRAL and NORTHEAST Districts, there is an enhanced chance that overnight temperatures will be below normal in the WIMMERA District, but there is little indication as to whether overnight temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is a slightly enhanced chance that average FEB/MAR/APR daytime temperatures will be above normal in the WIMMERA, CENTRAL and WESTERN Districts, but there is little indication as to whether daytime temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.