Experimental Melbourne CBD Long Range Weather Forecast

Based Upon Statistical Interpretation of NOAA Data

(http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready.html)

NOAA Data At: 10am, 22-7-2021

Minimum temperatures are for the night/early morning, maximum temperatures are for the daytime,
whilst precipitation amounts and probabilities are for the 24 hours from midnight.

Temperatures for the Melbourne observation site (at Olympic Park) are in brackets.

Day & DateMorningAfternoonMin
Temp
(deg C)
Max
Temp
(deg C)
Precip
Amount
(mm)
Precip
Prob
(%)
9am Wind/
3pm Wind
Melb Apt
(km/hr)
Fri-23-7-2021Rain.
Thunder.
6.2
(5.9)
11.7
(11.4)
16.284N 10
N 12
Gusts40
Sat-24-7-2021Rain.
Rain.
7.8
(7.9)
12.7
(13.1)
498N 30
NNW 30
Gusts65
Sun-25-7-2021Rain.
Rain.
6.8
(7.1)
12.2
(11.8)
2.994NW 30
W 35
Gusts65
Mon-26-7-2021Shower.
Rain.
8.9
(8.9)
13.7
(14)
1.477N 30
NNW 30
Gusts65
Tue-27-7-2021Windy.
Windy.
8
(7.7)
14.4
(14.9)
09N 35
N 40
Gusts75
Wed-28-7-2021Rain.
Rain.
7.6
(8)
13.5
(13.6)
4.995NW 30
W 35
Gusts65
Thu-29-7-2021Cloudy.
Shower.
6.9
(6.9)
14.4
(14.2)
1.358N 35
N 40
Gusts75
Fri-30-7-2021Rain.
Rain.
10.3
(10)
14.6
(15.5)
2.586N 45
N 45
Gusts85
Sat-31-7-2021Sunny.
Partly Cloudy.
7.4
(7.2)
15.6
(15.6)
07N 20
N 25
Gusts55
Sun-1-8-2021Rain.
Rain.
12.5
(12.4)
17.1
(17.7)
4.598N 40
NNW 40
Gusts75
Mon-2-8-2021Rain.
Rain.
9.1
(9.2)
13.8
(13.7)
296NW 20
W 25
Gusts55
Tue-3-8-2021Rain.
Rain.
8.7
(9)
14.7
(14.4)
3.596NW 30
W 35
Gusts65
Wed-4-8-2021Partly Cloudy.
Cloudy.
8.5
(8.5)
15.3
(15.1)
029NW 20
W 25
Gusts55
Thu-5-8-2021Shower.
Shower.
8.4
(8.2)
16.8
(16.6)
1.163N 20
N 25
Gusts55

The Weather Icons

Acknowledgement: Bureau of Meteorology & World Meteorological Organisation

Sunny
Dry
Haze
Mist
Fog
Partly Cloudy
Cloudy
Windy
Dust

Possible Shower
Drizzle
Shower
Snow
Rain
Thunder
Cyclone



THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR AUG/SEP/OCT:

NCEP's Depiction of the Global Sea Surface Temperature Evolution

The average Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index for the past week is -0.62 (-1.19 standard deviations), the average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the past 90 days is 5.74, the average SOI for the past 30 days (click here for a picture of recent trends) is 12.32, and the latest recorded bimonthly Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is -1.11. The expected MEI, adjusted by the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index and also by recent values of the SOI, for JUN/JUL is -1.06. Such a value of MEI indicates a sea surface temperature distribution that corresponds to a La Niña. This suggests:

RAINFALL: There is an enhanced chance that total AUG/SEP/OCT rainfall will be above normal in the MALLEE, WIMMERA, NORTHERN COUNTRY, NORTH CENTRAL, NORTHEAST, WEST GIPPSLAND, CENTRAL and WESTERN Districts, but there is little indication as to whether total AUG/SEP/OCT rainfall below, near or above normal in the other Victorian District, EAST GIPPSLAND.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: There is an enhanced chance that average AUG/SEP/OCT overnight temperatures will be above normal in the NORTHERN COUNTRY, NORTH CENTRAL and NORTHEAST Districts, there is a slightly enhanced chance that overnight temperatures will be above normal in the WIMMERA District, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that overnight temperatures will be above normal in the WESTERN District, but there is little indication as to whether overnight temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is an enhanced chance that average AUG/SEP/OCT daytime temperatures will be below normal in the MALLEE, WIMMERA, NORTHERN COUNTRY, NORTH CENTRAL, NORTHEAST and WEST GIPPSLAND Districts, there is a slightly enhanced chance that daytime temperatures will be below normal in the CENTRAL and WESTERN Districts, and there is a very slightly enhanced chance that daytime temperatures will be below normal in the other Victorian District, EAST GIPPSLAND.