Experimental Melbourne CBD Long Range Weather Forecast

Based Upon Statistical Interpretation of NOAA Data

(http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready.html)

NOAA Data At: 10am, 23-6-2022

Minimum temperatures are for the night/early morning, maximum temperatures are for the daytime,
whilst precipitation amounts and probabilities are for the 24 hours from midnight.

Temperatures for the Melbourne observation site (at Olympic Park) are in brackets.

Day & DateMorningAfternoonMin
Temp
(deg C)
Max
Temp
(deg C)
Precip
Amount
(mm)
Precip
Prob
(%)
9am Wind/
3pm Wind
Melb Apt
(km/hr)
Fri-24-6-2022Rain.
Rain.
10.2
(10.2)
16.3
(15.9)
1.984NW 16
W 20
Gusts55
Sat-25-6-2022Cloudy.
Shower.
9.6
(9.6)
15.1
(15.1)
0.957N 30
NNW 30
Gusts65
Sun-26-6-2022Rain.
Rain.
9.4
(9.4)
13.9
(13.4)
2.986NW 12
W 15
Gusts40
Mon-27-6-2022Shower.
Shower.
7.4
(7.3)
13
(12.1)
0.881WSW 8
SSW 12
Gusts30
Tue-28-6-2022Shower.
Rain.
8.8
(8.5)
14.9
(15.1)
0.972N 30
NNW 30
Gusts65
Wed-29-6-2022Rain.
Rain.
8.6
(8.7)
14
(14.1)
388N 30
NNW 30
Gusts65
Thu-30-6-2022Rain.
Rain.
8
(8.2)
14.7
(14.2)
1.588NW 20
W 25
Gusts55
Fri-1-7-2022Possible Shower.
Possible Shower.
6.7
(6.8)
12.4
(11.3)
044WSW 20
SW 25
Gusts55
Sat-2-7-2022Rain.
Rain.
7.2
(7.3)
13.1
(12.2)
2.495WSW 20
SW 25
Gusts55
Sun-3-7-2022Rain.
Rain.
7.4
(7.3)
13.8
(12.9)
0.990WSW 12
SSW 15
Gusts35
Mon-4-7-2022Fog.
Sunny.
7
(6.8)
12.7
(12)
018WNW 5
S 8
Gusts20
Tue-5-7-2022Sunny.
Partly Cloudy.
5.4
(5.3)
13.4
(13)
012N 20
N 25
Gusts55
Wed-6-7-2022Shower.
Rain.
7.8
(7.7)
14.8
(15.3)
2.175N 30
NNW 30
Gusts65
Thu-7-7-2022Shower.
Rain.
6.6
(6.8)
12.9
(12.2)
1.174NW 20
W 25
Gusts55

The Weather Icons

Acknowledgement: Bureau of Meteorology & World Meteorological Organisation

Sunny
Dry
Haze
Mist
Fog
Partly Cloudy
Cloudy
Windy
Dust

Possible Shower
Drizzle
Shower
Snow
Rain
Thunder
Cyclone



THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR JUL/AUG/SEP:

NCEP's Depiction of the Global Sea Surface Temperature Evolution

The average Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index for the past week is -0.49 (-0.94 standard deviations), the average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the past 90 days is 16.98, the average SOI for the past 30 days (click here for a picture of recent trends) is 16.09, and the latest recorded bimonthly Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is -1.68. The expected MEI, adjusted by the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index and also by recent values of the SOI, for MAY/JUN is -1.2. Such a value of MEI indicates a sea surface temperature distribution that corresponds to a La Niña. This suggests:

RAINFALL: There is an enhanced chance that total JUL/AUG/SEP rainfall will be above normal in the MALLEE, WIMMERA, NORTHERN COUNTRY, NORTH CENTRAL, NORTHEAST and WESTERN Districts, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that total JUL/AUG/SEP rainfall will be above normal in the CENTRAL District, and there is an enhanced chance that total JUL/AUG/SEP rainfall will be below normal in the EAST GIPPSLAND District, but there is little indication as to whether total JUL/AUG/SEP rainfall below, near or above normal in the other Victorian District, WEST GIPPSLAND.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: There is an enhanced chance that average JUL/AUG/SEP overnight temperatures will be above normal in the NORTHERN COUNTRY, NORTH CENTRAL and NORTHEAST Districts, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that overnight temperatures will be below normal in the WIMMERA and EAST GIPPSLAND Districts, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that overnight temperatures will be above normal in the WIMMERA District, and there is a slightly enhanced chance that overnight temperatures will be below normal in the CENTRAL District, but there is little indication as to whether overnight temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is a slightly enhanced chance that average JUL/AUG/SEP daytime temperatures will be below normal in the WIMMERA District, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that daytime temperatures will be below normal in the MALLEE, NORTHEAST, and WEST GIPPSLAND Districts, but there is little indication as to whether daytime temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.