Experimental Melbourne CBD Long Range Weather Forecast

Based Upon Statistical Interpretation of NOAA Data

(http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready.html)

NOAA Data At: 10am, 23-5-2020

Minimum temperatures are for the night/early morning, maximum temperatures are for the daytime,
whilst precipitation amounts and probabilities are for the 24 hours from midnight.

Temperatures for the Melbourne observation site (at Olympic Park) are in brackets.



THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR JUN/JUL/AUG:

NCEP's Depiction of the Global Sea Surface Temperature Evolution

The average Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index for the past week is 0.42 (0.81 standard deviations), the average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the past 90 days is -1.08, the average SOI for the past 30 days is 2.9, and the latest recorded bimonthly Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is -0.11. The expected MEI, adjusted by the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index and also by recent values of the SOI, for APR/MAY is 0.37. Such a value of MEI indicates a sea surface temperature distribution that corresponds to a very weak El Niño. This suggests:

RAINFALL: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that total JUN/JUL/AUG rainfall will be below normal in the MALLEE, NORTHERN COUNTRY, NORTH CENTRAL, NORTHEAST, WEST GIPPSLAND, CENTRAL and WESTERN Districts, but there is little indication as to whether total JUN/JUL/AUG rainfall will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that average JUN/JUL/AUG overnight temperatures will be above normal in the WIMMERA, EAST GIPPSLAND and CENTRAL Districts, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that overnight temperatures will be below normal in the NORTHERN COUNTRY District, but there is little indication as to whether overnight temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that average JUN/JUL/AUG daytime temperatures will be above normal in the MALLEE, NORTHERN COUNTRY, NORTH CENTRAL, NORTHEAST, EAST GIPPSLAND, WEST GIPPSLAND and CENTRAL Districts, but there is little indication as to whether daytime temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.


Day & DateMorningAfternoonMin
Temp
(deg C)
Max
Temp
(deg C)
Precip
Amount
(mm)
Precip
Prob
(%)
9am Wind/
3pm Wind
Melb Apt
(km/hr)
Sun-24-5-2020Rain.
Rain.
11
(10.8)
15
(13.8)
1.389SSW 20
S 25
Gusts50
Mon-25-5-2020Fog.
Sunny.
8.4
(8)
16.8
(15.7)
05SSE 10
S 15
Gusts35
Tue-26-5-2020Fog.
Partly Cloudy.
7.3
(6.9)
19.4
(19)
012N 15
NNE 15
Gusts45
Wed-27-5-2020Partly Cloudy.
Cloudy.
11.5
(11.2)
16.9
(16.7)
026N 25
NNW 25
Gusts55
Thu-28-5-2020Partly Cloudy.
Sunny.
8.1
(7.9)
17
(16.4)
010NNW 8
S 8
Gusts30
Fri-29-5-2020Sunny.
Sunny.
6.8
(6.5)
17.1
(16.7)
02N 25
N 25
Gusts55
Sat-30-5-2020Shower.
Rain.
9.2
(8.6)
17
(17.2)
0.870N 35
N 35
Gusts70
Sun-31-5-2020Rain.
Rain.
12.1
(11.7)
14.6
(15.4)
7.894N 35
N 35
Gusts70
Mon-1-6-2020Rain.
Rain.
11.2
(11.1)
14.9
(14.4)
2.690NW 12
W 15
Gusts40
Tue-2-6-2020Rain.
Rain.
8.7
(8.6)
14.3
(13.7)
1.293WSW 12
SSW 15
Gusts35
Wed-3-6-2020Rain.
Rain.
8.2
(8.2)
14.6
(13.8)
0.988WSW 12
SSW 15
Gusts35
Thu-4-6-2020Fog.
Sunny.
6
(5.8)
13.1
(12.2)
011VRB 3
S 8
Gusts20
Fri-5-6-2020Fog.
Sunny.
4.5
(4.3)
13.4
(12.7)
06NNW 5
SSE 8
Gusts20
Sat-6-6-2020Fog.
Haze.
6.8
(6.4)
15.6
(15)
017NNW 5
SSE 8
Gusts20

The Weather Icons

Acknowledgement: Bureau of Meteorology & World Meteorological Organisation

Sunny
Dry
Haze
Mist
Fog
Partly Cloudy
Cloudy
Windy
Dust

Possible Shower
Drizzle
Shower
Snow
Rain
Thunder
Cyclone