Experimental Melbourne CBD Long Range Weather Forecast

Based Upon Statistical Interpretation of NOAA Data

(http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready.html)

NOAA Data At: 10am, 26-12-2022

Minimum temperatures are for the night/early morning, maximum temperatures are for the daytime,
whilst precipitation amounts and probabilities are for the 24 hours from midnight.

Temperatures for the Melbourne observation site (at Olympic Park) are in brackets.

Day & DateMorningAfternoonMin
Temp
(deg C)
Max
Temp
(deg C)
Precip
Amount
(mm)
Precip
Prob
(%)
9am Wind/
3pm Wind
Melb Apt
(km/hr)
Tue-27-12-2022Fog.
Dry.
18.7
(17.7)
37.2
(36.5)
04N 20
N 20
Gusts50
Wed-28-12-2022Rain.
Thunder.
21.1
(20.5)
29.2
(28.2)
2.383W 20
SW 20
Gusts50
Thu-29-12-2022Partly Cloudy.
Partly Cloudy.
14.8
(14.2)
21.7
(20.3)
012S 15
S 20
Gusts40
Fri-30-12-2022Shower.
Thunder.
14.6
(13.9)
26
(24.9)
6.267SW 5
S 15
Gusts40
Sat-31-12-2022Partly Cloudy.
Shower.
16.5
(15.7)
29.1
(27.9)
1.155S 8
S 15
Gusts35
Sun-1-1-2023Partly Cloudy.
Partly Cloudy.
17.7
(17)
35.6
(34.7)
026N 20
N 20
Gusts60
Mon-2-1-2023Partly Cloudy.
Cloudy.
18.6
(18)
28.5
(27.1)
034SW 10
S 20
Gusts40
Tue-3-1-2023Partly Cloudy.
Cloudy.
12.8
(12.4)
21.9
(20.3)
024SSW 15
S 20
Gusts45
Wed-4-1-2023Partly Cloudy.
Partly Cloudy.
14.8
(14.1)
24.6
(23.1)
016S 20
S 25
Gusts50
Thu-5-1-2023Partly Cloudy.
Partly Cloudy.
13.9
(13.2)
21.1
(19.6)
011S 15
S 20
Gusts40
Fri-6-1-2023Partly Cloudy.
Partly Cloudy.
13.9
(13.4)
21.7
(20.2)
011S 15
S 20
Gusts40
Sat-7-1-2023Haze.
Haze.
13.6
(12.9)
24.6
(23.3)
014SW 5
S 15
Gusts40
Sun-8-1-2023Partly Cloudy.
Partly Cloudy.
14
(13.4)
21.6
(20.3)
08S 15
S 20
Gusts40
Mon-9-1-2023Haze.
Haze.
14.2
(13.5)
27.3
(26)
04S 8
S 15
Gusts35

The Weather Icons

Acknowledgement: Bureau of Meteorology & World Meteorological Organisation

Sunny
Dry
Haze
Mist
Fog
Partly Cloudy
Cloudy
Windy
Dust

Possible Shower
Drizzle
Shower
Snow
Rain
Thunder
Cyclone






THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR JAN/FEB/MAR:

NCEP's Depiction of the Global Sea Surface Temperature Evolution

The average Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index for the past week is 0.05 (0.1 standard deviations), the average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the past 90 days is 12.95, the average SOI for the past 30 days (click here for a picture of recent trends) is 8.67, and the latest recorded bimonthly Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is -1.53. The expected MEI, adjusted by the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index and also by recent values of the SOI, for NOV/DEC is -0.56. Such a value of MEI indicates a sea surface temperature distribution that corresponds to a weak La Niña. This suggests:

RAINFALL: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that total JAN/FEB/MAR rainfall will be above normal in the NORTHERN COUNTRY and NORTHEAST Districts, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that rainfall will be below normal in the EAST GIPPSLAND District, but there is little indication as to whether rainfall will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: There is a slightly enhanced chance that average JAN/FEB/MAR overnight temperatures will be above normal in the MALLEE, NORTHERN COUNTRY, NORTH CENTRAL and CENTRAL Districts, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that overnight temperatures will be above normal in the WEST GIPPSLAND District, there is a slightly enhanced chance that overnight temperatures will be below normal in the WIMMERA District, but there is little indication as to whether overnight temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is a slightly enhanced chance that average JAN/FEB/MAR daytime temperatures will be above normal in the MALLEE, WIMMERA, CENTRAL and WESTERN Districts, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that daytime temperatures will be below normal in the WEST GIPPSLAND District, but there is little indication as to whether daytime temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.