Experimental Melbourne CBD Long Range Weather Forecast

Based Upon Statistical Interpretation of NOAA Data

(http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready.html)

NOAA Data At: 10am, 26-3-2020

Minimum temperatures are for the night/early morning, maximum temperatures are for the daytime,
whilst precipitation amounts and probabilities are for the 24 hours from midnight.

Temperatures for the Melbourne observation site (at Olympic Park) are in brackets.


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THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR APR/MAY/JUN:

NCEP's Depiction of the Global Sea Surface Temperature Evolution

The average Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index for the past week is -0.07 (-0.13 standard deviations), the average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the past 90 days is -2.61, the average SOI for the past 30 days is -2.69, and the latest recorded bimonthly Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is 0.29. The expected MEI, adjusted by the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index and also by recent values of the SOI, for FEB/MAR is 0.06. Such a value of MEI indicates a sea surface temperature distribution that corresponds to neither a La Niña nor an El Niño. This suggests:

RAINFALL: There is an enhanced chance that total APR/MAY/JUN rainfall will be close to normal in the WEST GIPPSLAND District, but there is little indication as to whether rainfall will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: There is an enhanced chance that average APR/MAY/JUN overnight temperatures will be close to normal in the CENTRAL District, but there is little indication as to whether overnight temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is an enhanced chance that average APR/MAY/JUN daytime temperatures will be close to normal in the MALLEE, EAST GIPPSLAND, WEST GIPPSLAND, CENTRAL and WESTERN Districts, but there is little indication as to whether daytime temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.


Day & DateMorningAfternoonMin
Temp
(deg C)
Max
Temp
(deg C)
Precip
Amount
(mm)
Precip
Prob
(%)
9am Wind/
3pm Wind
Melb Apt
(km/hr)
Fri-27-3-2020Fog.
Partly Cloudy.
12.2
(11.6)
27.8
(27.1)
09N 15
NNE 15
Gusts45
Sat-28-3-2020Sunny.
Partly Cloudy.
15.6
(14.9)
29.2
(28.7)
05N 25
N 25
Gusts55
Sun-29-3-2020Shower.
Thunder.
19.3
(18.5)
28.4
(28.4)
5.471N 35
N 35
Gusts70
Mon-30-3-2020Shower.
Shower.
17.3
(16.9)
24.1
(23.3)
1.767WNW 15
WSW 15
Gusts40
Tue-31-3-2020Partly Cloudy.
Partly Cloudy.
13.6
(13.1)
22.4
(21.3)
07SSW 5
S 12
Gusts30
Wed-1-4-2020Fog.
Sunny.
11.9
(11.5)
21.2
(20.3)
05SSE 5
S 12
Gusts25
Thu-2-4-2020Fog.
Sunny.
13.1
(12.6)
20.1
(19.2)
011SW 5
S 12
Gusts30
Fri-3-4-2020Shower.
Thunder.
14.3
(13.9)
22.8
(22.6)
5.479N 25
NNW 25
Gusts55
Sat-4-4-2020Rain.
Rain.
12.3
(12.3)
18.1
(17)
1.987WSW 25
SW 25
Gusts55
Sun-5-4-2020Sunny.
Partly Cloudy.
10.6
(10.4)
19
(18.4)
012WNW 15
WSW 15
Gusts40
Mon-6-4-2020Sunny.
Partly Cloudy.
10.5
(10.5)
20.2
(19.4)
012WNW 15
WSW 15
Gusts40
Tue-7-4-2020Drizzle.
Cloudy.
10.7
(10.4)
18.1
(17)
0.863SSW 10
S 20
Gusts35
Wed-8-4-2020Fog.
Haze.
9.4
(8.8)
21.4
(20.5)
03NW 5
SSE 10
Gusts30
Thu-9-4-2020Sunny.
Sunny.
9.6
(9)
24.1
(23.5)
02N 15
NNE 15
Gusts45

The Weather Icons

Acknowledgement: Bureau of Meteorology & World Meteorological Organisation

Sunny
Dry
Haze
Mist
Fog
Partly Cloudy
Cloudy
Windy
Dust

Possible Shower
Drizzle
Shower
Snow
Rain
Thunder
Cyclone