Experimental Melbourne CBD Long Range Weather Forecast

Based Upon Statistical Interpretation of NOAA Data

(http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready.html)

NOAA Data At: 10am, 28-10-2021

Minimum temperatures are for the night/early morning, maximum temperatures are for the daytime,
whilst precipitation amounts and probabilities are for the 24 hours from midnight.

Temperatures for the Melbourne observation site (at Olympic Park) are in brackets.

Day & DateMorningAfternoonMin
Temp
(deg C)
Max
Temp
(deg C)
Precip
Amount
(mm)
Precip
Prob
(%)
9am Wind/
3pm Wind
Melb Apt
(km/hr)
Fri-29-10-2021Rain.
Rain.
13.4
(13.7)
19.8
(18.5)
1.690WNW 35
W 40
Gusts70
Sat-30-10-2021Shower.
Shower.
9.5
(9.4)
17.2
(16.1)
1.165WNW 15
WSW 20
Gusts50
Sun-31-10-2021Sunny.
Sunny.
8.8
(8.5)
23.7
(22.6)
04N 10
N 15
Gusts40
Mon-1-11-2021Sunny.
Sunny.
10.5
(9.9)
27.2
(26.1)
01NNE 8
NNE 15
Gusts35
Tue-2-11-2021Sunny.
Partly Cloudy.
12.9
(12.1)
29.8
(28.9)
05N 15
N 20
Gusts45
Wed-3-11-2021Shower.
Shower.
17.8
(17)
31.5
(31)
2.961N 25
N 30
Gusts60
Thu-4-11-2021Shower.
Shower.
15
(14.6)
22.2
(20.9)
4.369SW 15
SSW 20
Gusts45
Fri-5-11-2021Sunny.
Sunny.
11.9
(11.4)
20.6
(19.2)
03S 8
S 15
Gusts30
Sat-6-11-2021Sunny.
Partly Cloudy.
10.7
(10.1)
28.1
(27.3)
05N 15
N 20
Gusts45
Sun-7-11-2021Shower.
Thunder.
18.1
(17.2)
28
(27.7)
3.177N 40
N 35
Gusts80
Mon-8-11-2021Partly Cloudy.
Cloudy.
14.7
(14.3)
24.1
(23.1)
021WNW 15
WSW 20
Gusts50
Tue-9-11-2021Partly Cloudy.
Cloudy.
10.7
(10.5)
18.5
(17.3)
021SW 15
SSW 20
Gusts45
Wed-10-11-2021Partly Cloudy.
Sunny.
9.6
(9.3)
18.2
(16.9)
08SSW 8
S 15
Gusts30
Thu-11-11-2021Sunny.
Sunny.
13.1
(12.5)
19.4
(18.1)
04S 8
S 15
Gusts30

The Weather Icons

Acknowledgement: Bureau of Meteorology & World Meteorological Organisation

Sunny
Dry
Haze
Mist
Fog
Partly Cloudy
Cloudy
Windy
Dust

Possible Shower
Drizzle
Shower
Snow
Rain
Thunder
Cyclone



THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR NOV/DEC/JAN:

NCEP's Depiction of the Global Sea Surface Temperature Evolution

The average Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index for the past week is -0.57 (-1.1 standard deviations), the average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the past 90 days is 7.4, the average SOI for the past 30 days (click here for a picture of recent trends) is 9.83, and the latest recorded bimonthly Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is -1.41. The expected MEI, adjusted by the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index and also by recent values of the SOI, for SEP/OCT is -1.09. Such a value of MEI indicates a sea surface temperature distribution that corresponds to a La Niña. This suggests:

RAINFALL: There is an enhanced chance that total NOV/DEC/JAN rainfall will be above normal in the NORTHERN COUNTRY, NORTHEAST, EAST GIPPSLAND and WEST GIPPSLAND Districts, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that rainfall will be above normal in the MALLEE, NORTH CENTRAL and CENTRAL Districts, and there is little indication as to whether rainfall will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that average NOV/DEC/JAN overnight temperatures will be above normal in the WEST GIPPSLAND District, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that overnight temperatures will be below normal in the MALLEE and WIMMERA Districts, and there is little indication as to whether overnight temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is an enhanced chance that average NOV/DEC/JAN daytime temperatures will be below normal in the WIMMERA, NORTHERN COUNTRY, NORTHEAST, EAST GIPPSLAND, and WEST GIPPSLAND Districts, there is a slightly enhanced chance that average NOV/DEC/JAN daytime temperatures will be below normal in the MALLEE and NORTH CENTRAL Districts, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that average NOV/DEC/JAN daytime temperatures will be below normal in the WESTERN DISTRICT, and there is little indication as to whether overnight temperatures will be below, near or above normal in the other Victorian District, the CENTRAL District.