Melbourne Long Range Weather Forecast




Experimental Melbourne CBD Long Range Weather Forecast

Based Upon Statistical Interpretation of NOAA Data

(http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready.html)

NOAA Data At: 10am, 29-4-2021

Minimum temperatures are for the night/early morning, maximum temperatures are for the daytime,
whilst precipitation amounts and probabilities are for the 24 hours from midnight.

Temperatures for the Melbourne observation site (at Olympic Park) are in brackets.

Day & DateMorningAfternoonMin
Temp
(deg C)
Max
Temp
(deg C)
Precip
Amount
(mm)
Precip
Prob
(%)
9am Wind/
3pm Wind
Melb Apt
(km/hr)
Fri-30-4-2021Fog.
Sunny.
11.7
(11.2)
23.9
(23.3)
01N 13
NNE 14
Gusts40
Sat-1-5-2021Sunny.
Partly Cloudy.
11.8
(11.2)
24.2
(24)
013N 25
N 25
Gusts55
Sun-2-5-2021Shower.
Rain.
15.4
(14.8)
22.4
(22.3)
5.473N 30
N 25
Gusts60
Mon-3-5-2021Rain.
Rain.
13.6
(13.3)
18.3
(17.6)
2.290WSW 15
SSW 20
Gusts40
Tue-4-5-2021Rain.
Rain.
13.8
(13.3)
18.6
(17.5)
3.690S 20
SSE 25
Gusts50
Wed-5-5-2021Rain.
Rain.
14.5
(14)
18.9
(17.5)
2.881S 20
SSE 25
Gusts50
Thu-6-5-2021Fog.
Sunny.
14.5
(13.9)
21.4
(20.1)
013SSE 20
SSE 25
Gusts50
Fri-7-5-2021Drizzle.
Drizzle.
17.1
(16.4)
19.1
(18.1)
1.762S 12
S 20
Gusts35
Sat-8-5-2021Rain.
Rain.
14.9
(14.6)
18.9
(18.3)
387WNW 15
WSW 15
Gusts40
Sun-9-5-2021Shower.
Shower.
15.8
(15.4)
19.3
(18.8)
1.863NNW 8
SSW 12
Gusts35
Mon-10-5-2021Shower.
Shower.
11.9
(11.5)
21
(20.6)
460N 15
NNW 15
Gusts40
Tue-11-5-2021Rain.
Rain.
13.4
(13.2)
20.1
(20.3)
5.892N 30
NNW 30
Gusts70
Wed-12-5-2021Rain.
Rain.
11.1
(11.4)
15.6
(15.8)
396WNW 30
W 35
Gusts65
Thu-13-5-2021Rain.
Rain.
11.7
(11.9)
16.5
(16.4)
1.492WNW 30
W 35
Gusts65

The Weather Icons

Acknowledgement: Bureau of Meteorology & World Meteorological Organisation

Sunny
Dry
Haze
Mist
Fog
Partly Cloudy
Cloudy
Windy
Dust

Possible Shower
Drizzle
Shower
Snow
Rain
Thunder
Cyclone



THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR MAY/JUN/JUL:

NCEP's Depiction of the Global Sea Surface Temperature Evolution

The average Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index for the past week is 0.32 (0.62 standard deviations), the average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the past 90 days is 3.92, the average SOI for the past 30 days is 0.1, and the latest recorded bimonthly Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is -0.79. The expected MEI, adjusted by the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index and also by recent values of the SOI, for MAR/APR is 0.05. Such a value of MEI indicates a sea surface temperature distribution that corresponds to neither a La Niña nor an El Niño. This suggests:

RAINFALL: There is little indication as to whether total MAY/JUN/JUL rainfall will be below, near or above normal in Victorian Districts.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: There is an enhanced chance that average MAY/JUN/JUL overnight temperatures will be close to normal in the WIMMERA and CENTRAL Districts, but there is little indication as to whether overnight temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is an enhanced chance that average MAY/JUN/JUL daytime temperatures will be close to normal in the MALLEE, NORTHERN COUNTRY, EAST GIPPSLAND, CENTRAL and WESTERN Districts, but there is little indication as to whether daytime temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.