Melbourne Long Range Weather Forecast




Experimental Melbourne CBD Long Range Weather Forecast

Based Upon Statistical Interpretation of NOAA Data

(http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready.html)

NOAA Data At: 10am, 29-6-2020

Minimum temperatures are for the night/early morning, maximum temperatures are for the daytime,
whilst precipitation amounts and probabilities are for the 24 hours from midnight.

Temperatures for the Melbourne observation site (at Olympic Park) are in brackets.



THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR JUL/AUG/SEP:

NCEP's Depiction of the Global Sea Surface Temperature Evolution

The average Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index for the past week is 0.36 (0.69 standard deviations), the average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the past 90 days is -2.49, the average SOI for the past 30 days is -8.71, and the latest recorded bimonthly Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is -0.24. The expected MEI, adjusted by the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index and also by recent values of the SOI, for MAY/JUN is 0.41. Such a value of MEI indicates a sea surface temperature distribution that corresponds to a very weak El Niño. This suggests:

RAINFALL: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that total JUL/AUG/SEP rainfall will be below normal in the MALLEE, WIMMERA, NORTHERN COUNTRY, NORTH CENTRAL, NORTHEAST, CENTRAL and WESTERN Districts, and there is a slightly enhanced chance that total JUL/AUG/SEP rainfall will be above normal in the EAST GIPPSLAND District, but there is little indication as to whether total JUL/AUG/SEP rainfall below, near or above normal in the other Victorian District, WEST GIPPSLAND.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that average JUL/AUG/SEP overnight temperatures will be below normal in the WIMMERA, NORTHERN COUNTRY, NORTH CENTRAL and NORTHEAST Districts, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that overnight temperatures will be above normal in the CENTRAL District, but there is little indication as to whether overnight temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that average JUL/AUG/SEP daytime temperatures will be above normal in the MALLEE, WIMMERA, NORTHEAST, and WESTERN Districts, but there is little indication as to whether daytime temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.


Day & DateMorningAfternoonMin
Temp
(deg C)
Max
Temp
(deg C)
Precip
Amount
(mm)
Precip
Prob
(%)
9am Wind/
3pm Wind
Melb Apt
(km/hr)
Tue-30-6-2020Windy.
Windy.
5.9
(5.6)
14.7
(15)
026N 30
N 35
Gusts75
Wed-1-7-2020Rain.
Rain.
8.4
(8.1)
16
(16.3)
186N 35
N 35
Gusts75
Thu-2-7-2020Rain.
Rain.
9.2
(9.2)
14.8
(14.7)
4.191NW 20
W 25
Gusts55
Fri-3-7-2020Rain.
Rain.
9.4
(9.3)
13.5
(13.6)
3.692N 30
NNW 30
Gusts65
Sat-4-7-2020Rain.
Rain.
7.4
(7.5)
12.8
(12)
2.297WSW 20
SW 25
Gusts55
Sun-5-7-2020Rain.
Rain.
6.8
(6.9)
13.1
(12.2)
1.995WSW 20
SW 25
Gusts55
Mon-6-7-2020Drizzle.
Cloudy.
6.3
(6.2)
12.3
(11.6)
0.668WNW 5
S 8
Gusts20
Tue-7-7-2020Drizzle.
Cloudy.
5.9
(5.8)
13.7
(13.2)
1.562NW 12
WNW 12
Gusts35
Wed-8-7-2020Shower.
Shower.
6.9
(6.8)
13.1
(12.1)
181WSW 8
SSW 12
Gusts30
Thu-9-7-2020Rain.
Rain.
6.3
(6.3)
13
(12.1)
1.186WSW 12
SSW 15
Gusts35
Fri-10-7-2020Rain.
Rain.
6.8
(6.9)
12.7
(11.8)
1.895WSW 20
SW 25
Gusts55
Sat-11-7-2020Partly Cloudy.
Cloudy.
6.1
(6.1)
13.4
(13)
026NW 12
W 15
Gusts40
Sun-12-7-2020Rain.
Rain.
7.6
(7.8)
13.2
(12.7)
2.691NW 20
W 25
Gusts55
Mon-13-7-2020Rain.
Rain.
6.2
(6.3)
12.2
(11.4)
1.896WSW 20
SW 25
Gusts55

The Weather Icons

Acknowledgement: Bureau of Meteorology & World Meteorological Organisation

Sunny
Dry
Haze
Mist
Fog
Partly Cloudy
Cloudy
Windy
Dust

Possible Shower
Drizzle
Shower
Snow
Rain
Thunder
Cyclone