NCEP's Depiction of the Global Sea Surface Temperature Evolution
The average Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index for the past week is 0.5 (0.96 standard deviations), the average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the past 90 days is 3.81, the average SOI for the past 30 days is -0.26, and the latest recorded bimonthly Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is -0.40. The expected MEI, adjusted by the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index and also by recent values of the SOI, for APR/MAY is 0.28. Such a value of MEI indicates a sea surface temperature distribution that corresponds to a very weak El Niño. This suggests:
RAINFALL: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that total JUN/JUL/AUG rainfall will be below normal in the MALLEE, NORTHERN COUNTRY, NORTH CENTRAL, NORTHEAST, WEST GIPPSLAND, CENTRAL and WESTERN Districts, but there is little indication as to whether total JUN/JUL/AUG rainfall will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that average JUN/JUL/AUG overnight temperatures will be above normal in the WIMMERA, EAST GIPPSLAND and CENTRAL Districts, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that overnight temperatures will be below normal in the NORTHERN COUNTRY District, but there is little indication as to whether overnight temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that average JUN/JUL/AUG daytime temperatures will be above normal in the MALLEE, NORTHERN COUNTRY, NORTH CENTRAL, NORTHEAST, EAST GIPPSLAND, WEST GIPPSLAND and CENTRAL Districts, but there is little indication as to whether daytime temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts.
