A KNOWLEDGE-BASED SYSTEM TO GENERATE INTERNET WEATHER FORECASTS

Harvey Stern*

Victorian Regional Office, Bureau of Meteorology, Australia

1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 The knowledge-based system

A "pilot" knowledge-based system for the automated generation of internet weather forecasts is described. The system has been developed for the small (227,000 sq km) southeast Australian State of Victoria. Weather forecasts generated include forecasts for public, aviation, marine and media interests.

1.2 Background

Most of the work that has been carried out in Australia towards providing automated forecast guidance has focussed upon weather elements contained in forecasts for the general public (Stern, 1980; Dahni et al., 1984; Dahni, 1988; Dahni and Stern, 1995; Stern, 1996). Little such work has been carried out in Australia towards providing guidance for aviation forecasting, although Stern and Parkyn (2001) have developed a web-based forecasting technique for Melbourne Airport, and work progresses towards automated generation of terminal aerodrome forecasts (Godau et al., 2001).

There is also a web-bsed product that generates time series of expected weather directly from the latest NWP model output, but this product doesn't statistically correct for systematic model biases.

1.3 The Perfect Prog Approach

Brunet et al. (1988) found that Perfect Prog (PP) forecasts perform better than MOS forecasts for short-term predictions and note that PP forecasts possess the overwhelming advantage of portability of the system when the driving model changes. For these reasons the PP approach is used in the development of the system described herein.

2. DESCRIPTION

2.1 The JavaScript Algorithm

At the core of the system is an algorithm, written in JavaScript. The algorithm combines a statistical interpretation of NWP model data in terms of local weather, with other knowledge. The output generated is HTML code, which is then up-loaded to a web site.

2.2 Statistical Interpretation

The statistical interpretation component of the system is (preswently) fairly simplistic. It identifies the synoptic pattern type suggested by the NWP output, suites of forecasts having been derived for each of the different synoptic patterns. Knowledge about the weather associated with each synoptic type is utilised in developing these suites of forecasts. The current day's maximum temperature is used as a predictor in the generation of the temperature predictions.

2.3 Standard Forecasting Terminology

Nearly three decades ago, Dobryshman (1972) discussed the importance of a standard forecasting terminology. A standard terminology, relatively straightforward to implement in the context of an automated system, ensures unambiguous interpretation of the forecasts, and also allows the forecasts to be objectively verified. To this end, the system employs Stern's (1980) terminology.

3. SYNOPTIC TYPING

The synoptic typing procedure used by the system is that for southeast Australia first referred to by Treloar and Stern (1993), and defined in detail by Stern and Parkyn (1999). The synoptic types are described in terms of the direction, strength and curvature of the isobaric (surface) flow. These characteristics are determined from a grid of pressure values as follows:

• The direction of the flow is divided into 8 key categories, corresponding to each of the eight octants (NNW, WNW, ... , NNE).
• The strength of the flow is divided into 3 key categories (weak, moderate and strong).
• The curvature of the flow is divided into 2 key categories (cyclonic and anticyclonic).
• Combining these features yields 48 (8x3x2) types.
• Two additional types, light and variable cyclonic, and light and variable anticyclonic, bring the total number of synoptic types to 50.

4. BENEFITS

4.1 An Extensive "Bank" of Forecaster Experience

A major benefit of the knowledge-based system is that it incorporates an extensive "bank" of forecaster experience. Ramage (1993) has proposed an "iterative" approach to "locking in" improvements in forecasting methodology, and this approach was recently illustrated by the present author (Stern, 1996).

This is the approach adopted by the forecasting system described herein. The system's skill increases as new knowledge is incorporated into its operation. Hence, progress is gradually made towards the realisation of Ramage's dream.

4.2 Forecasts for Numerous Localities

The other major benefit of the knowledge-based system is the elimination of typing on the part of forecasters. This allows the production of forecasts for numerous localities. Indeed, the system generates forecasts in words, forecasts depicted by an icon graphic, forecasts of maximum and minimum temperature, and estimates of precipitation probability and amount, all out to day seven for 210 places.

At present, worded forecasts, and forecasts of maximum and minimum temperature, are provided officially only out to day four, and only for 24 places.

5. PERFORMANCE

5.1 Evaluation Measures

The performance of the system is evaluated utilising the same five skill scores used by Stern (1998). These skill scores, which assume a positive value if the forecast performance is superior to that of climatology, are derived from:

• root mean square error (rmse) of the minimum temperature predictions (MIN);
• rmse of the maximum temperature predictions (MAX);
• rmse of the quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF);
• % of correct indications of the occurrence of precipitation or no precipitation(PNP); and,
• Brier score of the probability of precipitation estimatess (BRIER).

5.2 Preliminary Verification Statistics

A preliminary test of the "pilot" system was conducted in April 2001. The "pilot" system was only developed for one calendar month, the transition month of April being selected because of the fairly representative balance of winter and summer synoptic types. Previously, the analogue statistics model, which has now been operational in the Victorian office for over 15 years, was also initially developed for only one calendar month (Stern, 1980).

Although the associated verification statistics (Table 1) are limited to one month's forecasts, and are also limited to forecasts for day one, and for only one location (Melbourne), the results are encouraging. They show that, on each of the five measures, the system's performance is superior to forecasts based purely on climatology or persistence (PER).

However, the system, on account of its (presently) fairly simplistic statistical interpretation component, is shown to be inferior to the independently produced official (OFF) forecasts. This situation would be expected to change as the statistical component becomes more sophisticated.

TABLE 1 Preliminary verification statistics.

6. COMPARISON WITH IFPS

6.1 Similarities

The system's approach has some similarities to that of the US Interactive Forecast Preparation System (IFPS) (Jannuzzi, 2002; Mandt, 2002; Rezek, 2002, Ruth, 2002) - in both cases, the forecaster works with the system in an interactive manner in the course of generating forecasts.

6.2 Differences

However, the extent of interaction associated with the Australian system is far less than that with IFPS. It is intended that the Australian system's forecasts are (mostly) automatically generated and transmitted, the real-time forecaster-role being largely confined to decisions about which NWP model data to input.

In fact, the Australian system's main human-interaction is in utilising forecast verification analyses (after the event) to iteratively incorporate new additional forecaster knowledge into its algorithm.

Another difference from IFPS lies in the Australian system's provision of forecasts for specific localities. IFPS generates forecasts for an array of grid points for subsequent interpretation by private providers.

However, provision of forecasts for specific localities might be the preferred route for the weather services of a country such as Australia, where there are only a small number of private meteorologists.

7. MULTI-LINGUAL FEATURE

Gillies (2001) notes that "55% of the Web is in languages other than English", and it is becoming increasingly important for Web Sites to cater for these other languages.

Chinese is the world's most widely spoken language, and Whittaker (2001) contemplates the possibility of Chinese becoming "the common language of the Web". As a first step towards a multi-lingual product, the system, in addition to providing predictions in English, also generates a forecast summary in Chinese.

8. VIEWING THE OUTPUT

To view a complete sample of the system's output, go to the example at the end of this presentation.

Features of the output to note, in addition to the 7-day forecasts for 210 places, include:

• a broad description of the expected weather pattern, in both English and Chinese;
• a marine forecast for Port Phillip;
• a set of terminal aerodrome forecasts; and,
• a set of graphics, for use by the print media.

9. AN UPDATE

For an update on the work's progress, go to:

http://www.weather-climate.com/internetforecasts.ppt

10. FUTURE PLANS

It is planned to extend the "pilot" system to all twelve calendar months, and to carry out an extensive verification of its predictions, that verification embracing all current observing sites. This will be done with a view to then incorporating additional knowledge about the weather associated with each of the synoptic types. As a consequence, the suites of forecasts will be further developed. It is also planned to enhance the sophistication of the statistical analysis component, and to extend the multi-lingual feature to include Australian indigenous languages.

Acknowledgments.

The author takes great pleasure in thanking colleagues Geoff Feren and Ven Tsui, for their helpful and encouraging comments.

11. REFERENCES

*Corresponding author address: Harvey Stern, Victorian Regional Office, Bureau of Meteorology, Box 1636M, Melbourne, 3001, Australia; e-mail: H.Stern@bom.gov.au

INTERACTIVE FORECAST PREPARATION SYSTEM -
A CATALYST FOR CHANGE

Papers to be presented in the above session of the AMS 2002 Interactive symposium on AWIPS

INTERACTIVE FORECAST PREPARATION - THE FUTURE HAS COME

David P. Ruth
NOAA/NWS/OST/MDL,
Silver Spring, MD 20910.

Abstract of paper, as published on AMS web site, 4 October, 2001

The National Weather Service (NWS) has been preparing to introduce Interactive Forecast Preparation (IFP) into its field operations for almost two decades. Evolving versions of IFP systems have been operationally tested at selected NWS field offices for more than 15 years. With the deployment of the Interactive Computer Worded Forecast system in the NWS Eastern Region in 2000, routine IFP operations became a reality. The Southern and Central regions followed last year by initiating the deployment of the Interactive Forecast Preparation System (IFPS), the successor to ICWF. NWS plans call for implementation of IFPS at all its Weather Forecast Offices by the end of 2003.

IFP represents a substantial change for forecasters. Instead of manually typing a myriad of forecast products tailored for specific user communities (e.g., public, fire weather, marine), forecasters will rely on interactive interpretation and editing techniques to prepare forecasts of weather elements in a common digital database from which forecast products will be automatically composed and formatted. IFP maximizes the human contribution within the forecast process, by enabling the NWS field offices to issue new products with more forecast detail in time and space, as well as the existing product suite.

An important outgrowth of nationwide implementation of IFPS will be the development of the NWS Digital Forecast Database (NDFD). The NDFD will contain a seamless mosaic of NWS digital forecasts, be made available to all users and partners -- public and private, and allow those users and partners to create a wide range of text, graphic, and image products of their own.

DIGITAL FORECAST TECHNOLOGY: NWS VISION FOR NEW PRODUCTS AND CUSTOMER PARTNERSHIPS

Greg Mandt NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD 02910.

Abstract of paper, as published on AMS web site, 4 October, 2001

Digital forecast technology enabled by the implementation of the Interactive Forecast Preparation System (IFPS) provides the National Weather Service (NWS) opportunities to: modernize the forecast preparation process at the Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) as we transition to the generation of forecaster prepared digital databases; improve the existing products and services which the NWS now provides; and radically extend the baseline of products which are made available to the NWS customers and partners.

The NWS strategic intent to provide forecasts in digital form becomes a reality through the nationwide implementation of IFPS. Some of the challenges which this digital technology brings to the NWS are to: develop a seamless suite of NWS products which are spatially consistent across WFO boundaries; establish a process for new product standardization; and to establish policy for products in new formats such as graphical imagery and gridded fields.

A Rapid Prototype Project (RPP) was established in 1999 to provide a means to improve the IFPS capabilities and prototype experimental products. The RPP fosters effective communication between the users and developers and has established an iterative process for requirement refinement. RPP experimentation conducted at designated NWS sites have demonstrated that IFPS capabilities for product generation in new formats, such as gridded and graphical imagery, can be used to provide new and improved products and services to NWS users and partners.

The NWS Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) will provide NWS customers and partners access to a mosaic of the IFPS generated digital products prepared at WFOs. The demonstration of this project, conducted during FY02, will provide an opportunity to implement procedures and new IFPS capabilities for Intersite Coordination in order to ensure the spatial consistency of the Digital Forecast Database.

To establish a process for implementation of new products generated by IFPS and other NWS systems, a New Product Vision Team has been established for the NWS. The focus of this team is to review and recommend new products for implementation. Implementation will include the product standardization, customer outreach for validation of the requirements, and policy documentation required for the full nationwide availability of the new products.

There are remaining strategic challenges which the NWS will face as the digital forecast technology provided by IFPS matures. The primary challenges include: ensuring that the NWS continues to meet the evolving customer and user needs; enhancing cooperation with the private sector by building partnerships; and crafting the strategic architecture necessary to accomplish NWS goals for future products and services.

CHANGING THE OPERATIONAL PARADIGM WITH IFPS

Alan Rezek NOAA/NWS, Charleston, WI 25309.

Abstract of paper, as published on AMS web site, 4 October, 2001

Change can be a difficult undertaking for any individual. But, when you try to implement a major change across an entire agency, the difficulties encountered by the individual are multiplied one hundred fold. The IFPS has been the catalyst for change in the NWS. The foundation of the field forecast office, the text message, has been displaced. The comfort of routine, around for 30 years, has been removed. The corporate knowledge of the field operations, which existed through all levels of the organization, has vanished. But, under the direction of the upper management and the leadership of the field managers, a new paradigm is beginning to emerge. In addition, the change in the operational paradigm is challenging all levels of the organization to explore new opportunities.

The full IFPS has been functioning at WFO Charleston, WV since Fall, 2000. The implementation of IFPS has changed office operations in a number of ways. These include a shift in time and workload management, a change in the understanding of the NWS primary products and services and an aggressive effort to make more of the meteorologist's knowledge accessible. This presentation will highlight the impact of these changes and how management and staff have dealt with them. In a broader sense, I will also be identifying the paradigm change and examining the struggles each part of the organization has and will encounter as a result of IFPS implementation. I will look at how the organization has dealt with the change from the time it was first recognized through it's current efforts to manage it.

RAPID PROTOTYPING GRID-BASED FORECASTING

John A. Jannuzzi NOAA/NWS, Boise, Idaho 83705-5354.

Abstract of paper, as published on AMS web site, 4 October, 2001

The NWS is in the process of modernizing it’s suite of customer products by providing graphical and gridded forecast products in addition to text based products. There is much to be learned as this modernization takes place. Forecasters must learn how to value-add and interact with a gridded forecast database of sensible weather parameters. Preparation tools used by forecasters to generate these new products are still being developed and refined. Close interaction between forecasters and developers of the forecast preparation system is fostering rapid evolution of the tools forecasters need to work in this new operations environment. Customers must be involved in determining what types of products are needed and how this information can best be presented. Rapid proto-typing affords a setting where this experimentation can take place in the operations environment without adversely impacting commissioned operational systems. Developers are able to provide quick turn-around on software enhancements/improvements - something not possible within the confines of configuration management for commissioned systems.

Experimental Day-1
Victorian Forecast for
1 April 2001

LINK TO ...

The current Day-1 forecast for 210 localities in Victoria
The current Day-2 forecast for 210 localities in Victoria
The current Day-3 forecast for 210 localities in Victoria
The current Day-4 forecast for 210 localities in Victoria
The current Day-5 forecast for 210 localities in Victoria
The current Day-6 forecast for 210 localities in Victoria
The current Day-7 forecast for 210 localities in Victoria

IN THE VICTORIAN DISTRICTS

Melbourne CBD, Metropolitan,
Mallee, Wimmera, Northern Country, North Central, Northeast, Alpine,
East Gippsland, West Gippsland, Central, and Western

PLUS SELECTED FORECASTS
for
AVIATION (Metropolitan Terminals)
and
MARINE (Port Phillip)

Warnings -
Nil Warnings

Weather pattern -
Victoria's weather will be largely influenced by a high pressure system, just to the east of the State. As the day progresses, the high will drift eastwards over the Tasnman Sea, and northerly winds will become established in most parts, although coastal sea breezes are likely.

Regarding the Greater Melbourne Area, this evolution will lead to clear skies after local early morning fogs, with light northerly winds and bayside sea breezes.

Departures of suburban temperatures from those in the CBD should be close to long-term average departures.

Metropolitan and surrounds -
Early morning fog patches in the outer suburbs, then a fine warm and sunny day with light northerly winds, and bayside sea breezes.

MARINE

Over Port Phillip -
5 to 10 knot northerly winds, resulting waves of 0.5 metres or less, tending southerly of similar strength, with afternoon sea breezes.

AVIATION

At Melbourne Airport -
TAF YMML 1212 VRB05KT CAVOK
FM 23 36010KT
PROB30 1922 0300 FG
T 13 11 10 10 Q 1025 1024 1023 1024

At Essendon Airport -
TAF YMEN 1402 VRB05KT CAVOK
FM 23 36010KT
PROB30 1922 0300 FG
T 12 11 10 14 Q 1024 1023 1024 1025

At Moorabbin Airport -
TAF YMMB 1402 VRB05KT CAVOK
PROB30 1922 0300 FG
T 12 11 10 14 Q 1024 1023 1024 1025

At Point Cook Airport -
TAF YMPC 2008 VRB05KT CAVOK
PROB30 2022 0300 FG
T 09 14 22 25 Q 1024 1025 1023 1021

WEATHER AT 210 VICTORIAN LOCALITIES

Detailed Forecasts for the Melbourne CBD, the Greater Melbourne Metropolitan Area, the Nine Victorian Country Districts, and for 210 Individual Localities

Detailed Forecasts	Precis	Min Temp (deg C)	Max Temp (deg C)	Precip Amount (mm)	Precip Prob (%)
Melbourne CBD Fine warm and sunny. Light northerly winds.	Sunny.	11	27	0	10
METROPOLITAN Early morning fog patches in the outer suburbs, then a fine warm and sunny day with light northerly winds, and bayside sea breezes.	-	-	-	-	-
Aspendale Fine warm and sunny. Light northerly winds and afternoon sea breezes.	Sunny	10	26	0	10
Black Rock Fine warm and sunny. Light northerly winds and afternoon sea breezes.	Sunny	10	26	0	10
Brighton Fine warm and sunny. Light northerly winds and afternoon sea breezes.	Sunny	10	26	0	10
Bundoora Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light northerly winds.	Early fog	9	27	0	10
Burnley Fine warm and sunny. Light northerly winds.	Sunny	9	26	0	10
Camberwell Fine warm and sunny. Light northerly winds.	Sunny	10	28	0	10
Coldstream Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light northerly winds.	Early fog	5	27	0	10
Cranbourne Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light northerly winds.	Early fog	9	26	0	10
Dandenong Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light northerly winds.	Early fog	10	27	0	10
Dunns Hill Fine warm and sunny. Light northerly winds.	Sunny	9	22	0	10
Essendon Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light northerly winds.	Early fog	10	26	0	10
Frankston Beach Fine warm and sunny. Light northerly winds and afternoon sea breezes.	Sunny	11	25	0	10
Greenvale Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light northerly winds.	Early fog	9	26	0	10
Kew Fine warm and sunny. Light northerly winds.	Sunny	10	26	0	10
Laverton Fine warm and sunny. Light northerly winds and afternoon sea breezes.	Sunny	9	27	0	10
Maribyrnong Fine warm and sunny. Light northerly winds.	Sunny	10	26	0	10
Melbourne Airport Fine warm and sunny. Light northerly winds.	Sunny	9	26	0	10
Mentone Fine warm and sunny. Light northerly winds and afternoon sea breezes.	Sunny	10	27	0	10
Moorabbin Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light northerly winds.	Early fog	11	20	0	10
Mt Dandenong Fine warm and sunny. Light northerly winds.	Sunny	8	21	0	10
Mt Eliza Fine warm and sunny. Light northerly winds and afternoon sea breezes.	Sunny	11	26	0	10
Scoresby Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light northerly winds.	Early fog	10	26	0	10
Watsonia Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light northerly winds.	Early fog	9	27	0	10
Werribee Fine warm and sunny. Light northerly winds and afternoon sea breezes.	Sunny	9	26	0	10
Viewbank Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light northerly winds.	Early fog	8	27	4	80
MALLEE A fine warm and sunny day. Light northerly winds.	-	-	-	-	-
Beulah A fine warm and sunny day. Light northerly winds.	Sunny	8	29	0	10
Birchip A fine warm and sunny day. Light northerly winds.	Sunny	8	29	0	10
Merbein A fine warm and sunny day. Light northerly winds.	Sunny	9	30	0	10
Mildura A fine warm and sunny day. Light northerly winds.	Sunny	9	31	0	10
Mildura Airport A fine warm and sunny day. Light northerly winds.	Sunny	9	30	0	10
Murrayville A fine warm and sunny day. Light northerly winds.	Sunny	7	29	0	10
Ouyen A fine warm and sunny day. Light northerly winds.	Sunny	9	30	0	10
Rainbow A fine warm and sunny day. Light northerly winds.	Sunny	8	29	0	10
Robinvale A fine warm and sunny day. Light northerly winds.	Sunny	10	30	0	10
Swan Hill A fine warm and sunny day. Light northerly winds.	Sunny	9	29	0	10
Swan Hill Airport A fine warm and sunny day. Light northerly winds.	Sunny	8	29	0	10
Walpeup A fine warm and sunny day. Light northerly winds.	Sunny	9	29	0	30
WIMMERA A fine warm and sunny day, after some early morning fog patches in the south. Light winds tending northerly.	-	-	-	-	-
Apsley Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light winds tending northerly.	Early fog	8	29	0	10
Dimboola A fine warm and sunny day. Light winds turning northerly.	Sunny	8	31	0	40
Donald A fine warm and sunny day. Light winds turning northerly.	Sunny	8	30	0	40
Horsham Airport Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light winds tending northerly.	Early fog	6	30	0	10
Jeparit A fine warm and sunny day. Light winds turning northerly.	Sunny	8	31	0	40
Longerenong Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light winds tending northerly.	Early fog	7	30	0	10
Nhill A fine warm and sunny day. Light winds turning northerly.	Sunny	8	30	0	40
Polkemmett Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light winds tending northerly.	Early fog	8	30	0	10
Serviceton A fine warm and sunny day. Light winds turning northerly.	Sunny	8	30	0	40
St Arnaud Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light winds tending northerly.	Early fog	8	29	0	10
Stawell Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light winds tending northerly.	Early fog	8	28	0	10
Stawell Airport Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light winds tending northerly.	Early fog	8	29	0	10
Wail A fine warm and sunny day. Light winds turning northerly.	Sunny	7	30	0	40
Warracknabeal A fine warm and sunny day. Light winds turning northerly.	Sunny	8	30	0	40
Wycheproof A fine warm and sunny day. Light winds turning northerly.	Sunny	8	31	0	40
NORTHERN COUNTRY A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	-	-	-	-	-
Avoca A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Sunny	7	29	0	10
Bendigo A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Sunny	9	29	0	10
Bendigo Airport A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Sunny	7	29	0	10
Boort A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Sunny	9	31	0	10
Charlton A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Sunny	8	30	0	10
Dookie A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Sunny	9	30	0	10
Echuca A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Sunny	9	31	0	10
Kerang A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Sunny	9	31	0	10
Kyabram A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Sunny	8	30	0	10
Lemnos A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Sunny	8	30	0	10
Numurkah A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Sunny	9	31	0	10
Rochester A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Sunny	9	30	0	10
Shepparton A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Sunny	9	31	0	10
Shepparton Airport A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Sunny	7	30	0	10
Tatura A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Sunny	8	30	0	10
Wanalta A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Sunny	7	30	0	10
Wyuna A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Sunny	8	32	0	10
Yarrawonga A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Sunny	8	31	0	10
NORTH CENTRAL Early morning fog patches in the valleys and lowlands. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	-	-	-	-	-
Alexandra Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Early fog	6	29	0	10
Cairn Curran Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Early fog	8	28	0	10
Castlemaine Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Sunny	6	28	0	10
Clunes Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Sunny	6	28	0	10
Creswick Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Early fog	6	27	0	10
Eberys Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Early fog	7	28	0	10
Eildon Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Early fog	7	29	0	10
Haines Saddle A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Sunny	8	26	0	10
Kilmore Gap A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Sunny	8	26	0	10
Kyneton Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Early fog	6	27	0	10
Maldon Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Early fog	8	30	0	10
Mangalore Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Early fog	8	30	0	10
Maryborough Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Early fog	8	29	0	10
Rubicon A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Sunny	7	24	0	10
Seymour Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Early fog	7	30	0	10
Spring Creek Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Early fog	6	28	0	10
Talbot Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Early fog	7	27	0	10
NORTHEAST Early morning fog patches in the valleys and over the lowlands. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	-	-	-	-	-
Beechworth Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Early fog	7	27	0	10
Benalla Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Early fog	8	31	0	10
Bogong Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Early fog	6	26	0	10
Bonegilla Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Early fog	8	30	0	10
Bright Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Early fog	5	30	0	10
Corryong Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Early fog	6	30	0	10
Dartmouth Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Early fog	6	29	0	10
Edi Upper Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Early fog	7	29	0	10
Euroa Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Early fog	9	30	0	10
Hunters Hill Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Sunny	8	24	0	10
Mansfield Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Early fog	4	30	0	10
Mt Beauty Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Early fog	7	29	0	10
Myrtleford Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Early fog	5	30	0	10
Omeo Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Early fog	4	27	0	10
Rutherglen Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Early fog	8	31	0	10
Strathbogie Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Early fog	5	27	0	10
Wahgunyah Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Early fog	8	31	0	10
Walwa Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Early fog	3	31	0	10
Wangaratta Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Early fog	8	31	0	10
Wangaratta Airport Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Early fog	6	31	0	10
Wodonga Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Early fog	8	32	0	10
Woods Point Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Early fog	3	26	0	10
ALPINE Fine warm and sunny. Light and variable winds.	-	-	-	-	-
Falls Creek Fine warm and sunny. Light and variable winds.	Sunny	3	18	0	10
Mt Baw Baw Fine warm and sunny. Light and variable winds.	Sunny	3	18	0	10
Mt Buffalo Chalet Fine warm and sunny. Light and variable winds.	Sunny	5	20	0	10
Mt Buller Fine warm and sunny. Light and variable winds.	Sunny	3	19	0	10
Mt Hotham Fine warm and sunny. Light and variable winds.	Sunny	2	18	0	10
Mt Hotham Airport Fine warm and sunny. Light and variable winds.	Sunny	4	23	0	10
EAST GIPPSLAND Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light winds.and sea breezes. Over coastal waters, 10 knot north to northeasterly winds with seas of about 0.5 metres or less.	-	-	-	-	-
Bairnsdale Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds and sea breezes.	Early fog	8	27	0	10
Cann River Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds and sea breezes.	Early fog	7	28	0	10
Combienbar Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Early fog	9	23	0	10
Gabo Is A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds and sea breezes.	Early fog	13	26	0	10
Gelantipy Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Early fog	6	22	0	10
Kowat Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Early fog	8	25	0	10
Lakes Entrance Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds and sea breezes.	Early fog	10	26	0	10
Mallacoota Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds and sea breezes.	Early fog	8	26	0	10
Mt Nowa Nowa A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds and sea breezes.	Early fog	10	25	0	10
Nowa Nowa Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds and sea breezes.	Early fog	7	28	0	10
Orbost Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds and sea breezes.	Early fog	9	27	0	10
Point Hicks Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds and sea breezes.	Early fog	12	26	0	10
WEST GIPPSLAND Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light winds.and sea breezes. Over coastal waters, 10 knot north to northeasterly winds with seas of about 0.5 metres or less.	-	-	-	-	-
Bairnsdale Airport Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds and sea breezes.	Early fog	8	27	0	10
Blue Rock Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds and sea breezes.	Early fog	9	26	0	10
Ellinbank Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds and sea breezes.	Early fog	9	26	0	10
Erica Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds and sea breezes.	Early fog	8	23	0	10
Latrobe Valley Airport Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds and sea breezes.	Early fog	8	27	0	10
Leongatha Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds and sea breezes.	Early fog	9	26	0	10
Loch Valley Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds and sea breezes.	Early fog	5	23	0	10
Maffra Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds and sea breezes.	Early fog	8	27	0	10
Moondarra Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds and sea breezes.	Early fog	9	24	0	10
Mt Moornapa Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds and sea breezes.	Early fog	9	24	0	10
Noojee Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds and sea breezes.	Early fog	6	26	0	10
Olsens Bridge Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds and sea breezes.	Early fog	6	26	0	10
Sale Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds and sea breezes.	Early fog	8	28	0	10
Sale East Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds and sea breezes.	Early fog	8	27	0	10
Stratford Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds and sea breezes.	Early fog	7	28	0	10
Tanjil Bren Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds and sea breezes.	Early fog	6	22	0	10
Tarwin East Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds and sea breezes.	Early fog	9	24	0	10
Warragul Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds.	Early fog	8	26	0	10
Wilsons Promontory A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds and sea breezes.	Early fog	12	24	0	10
Won Wron Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds and sea breezes.	Early fog	9	26	0	10
Yallourn Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day. Light and variable winds and sea breezes.	Early fog	9	25	0	10
CENTRAL Early morning fog patches inland. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind tending northerly, and coastal sea breezes. Over coastal waters, 5 to 10 knot northerly winds, tending southerly of similar strength with afternoon sea breezes. Seas of about 0.5 metres.	-	-	-	-	-
Avalon Airport Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind and afternoon sea breezes.	Early fog	9	28	0	10
Bacchus Marsh Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind tending northerly.	Early fog	7	30	0	10
Blackwood Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind tending northerly.	Early fog	5	26	0	10
Cape Schanck A fine warm and sunny day with light wind and afternoon sea breezes.	Sunny	11	26	0	10
Cerberus A fine warm and sunny day with light wind and afternoon sea breezes.	Sunny	11	28	0	10
Cowes Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind and afternoon sea breezes.	Early fog	11	28	0	10
Durdiwarrah Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind tending northerly.	Early fog	8	26	0	10
Fiskville Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind tending northerly.	Early fog	6	26	0	10
French Is Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind and afternoon sea breezes.	Early fog	9	29	0	10
Geelong Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind and afternoon sea breezes.	Early fog	10	28	0	10
Geelong Airport Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind and afternoon sea breezes.	Early fog	9	28	0	10
Healesville Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind tending northerly.	Early fog	8	27	0	10
Macedon Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind tending northerly.	Early fog	7	24	0	10
Mornington Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind and afternoon sea breezes.	Early fog	10	28	0	10
Mt St Leonard Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind tending northerly.	Early fog	8	24	0	10
Norlane Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind and afternoon sea breezes.	Early fog	10	29	0	10
Pt Henry Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind and afternoon sea breezes.	Early fog	10	28	0	10
Pt Lonsdale Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind and afternoon sea breezes.	Early fog	11	28	0	10
Pt Wilson Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind and afternoon sea breezes.	Early fog	12	28	0	10
Portsea Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind and afternoon sea breezes.	Early fog	11	27	0	10
Powelltown Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind tending northerly.	Early fog	7	27	0	10
Queenscliff Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind and afternoon sea breezes.	Early fog	11	27	0	10
Sheoaks Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind tending northerly.	Early fog	8	27	0	10
South Channel Is A fine warm and sunny day with light wind and afternoon sea breezes.	Sunny	13	26	0	10
Stony Point Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind and afternoon sea breezes.	Early fog	12	27	0	10
Summerland Bay Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind and afternoon sea breezes.	Early fog	10	28	0	10
Tarrawarra Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind tending northerly.	Early fog	8	29	0	10
Teesdale Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind tending northerly.	Early fog	9	28	0	10
Tooradin Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind and afternoon sea breezes.	Early fog	8	29	0	10
Wonthaggi Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind and afternoon sea breezes.	Early fog	9	28	0	10
WESTERN Early morning fog patches inland. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind tending northerly, and coastal sea breezes. Over coastal waters, 5 to 10 knot northerly winds, tending southerly of similar strength with afternoon sea breezes. Seas of about 0.5 metres.	-	-	-	-	-
Apollo Bay A fine warm and sunny day with light wind and afternoon sea breezes.	Sunny	11	28	0	10
Ararat Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind tending northerly.	Early fog	7	28	0	10
Ballarat Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind tending northerly.	Early fog	7	27	0	10
Camperdown Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind tending northerly.	Early fog	8	29	0	10
Cape Nelson A fine warm and sunny day with light wind and afternoon sea breezes.	Sunny	12	28	0	10
Cape Otway A fine warm and sunny day with light wind and afternoon sea breezes.	Sunny	11	27	0	10
Cashmore Airport A fine warm and sunny day with light wind and afternoon sea breezes.	Sunny	9	28	0	10
Casterton Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind tending northerly.	Early fog	8	30	0	10
Colac Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind tending northerly.	Early fog	8	29	0	10
Elliminyt Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind tending northerly.	Early fog	9	28	0	10
Forest Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind tending northerly.	Early fog	6	27	0	10
Gellibrand River Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind tending northerly.	Early fog	7	29	0	10
Hamilton Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind tending northerly.	Early fog	8	28	0	10
Hamilton Airport Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind tending northerly.	Early fog	8	30	0	10
Heywood Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind tending northerly.	Early fog	8	29	0	10
Lismore Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind tending northerly.	Early fog	8	29	0	10
Lookout Hill Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind tending northerly.	Early fog	5	22	0	10
Lorne A fine warm and sunny day with light wind and afternoon sea breezes.	Sunny	10	29	0	10
Mortlake Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind tending northerly.	Early fog	6	29	0	10
Mt Gellibrand Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind tending northerly.	Early fog	8	27	0	10
Mt Pleasant Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind tending northerly.	Early fog	8	27	0	10
Port Fairy A fine warm and sunny day with light wind and afternoon sea breezes.	Sunny	10	29	0	10
Portland A fine warm and sunny day with light wind and afternoon sea breezes.	Sunny	10	28	0	10
Portland Airport A fine warm and sunny day with light wind and afternoon sea breezes.	Sunny	10	29	0	10
Rennick Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind tending northerly.	Early fog	8	29	0	10
Terang Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind tending northerly.	Early fog	8	28	0	10
Warrambine Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind tending northerly.	Early fog	8	28	0	10
Warrnambool A fine warm and sunny day with light wind and afternoon sea breezes.	Sunny	10	28	0	10
Warrnambool Airport A fine warm and sunny day with light wind and afternoon sea breezes.	Sunny	9	29	0	10
Weeaproinah Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind tending northerly.	Early fog	8	24	0	10
Woohlpooer Early morning fog patches. A fine warm and sunny day with light wind tending northerly.	Early fog	6	29	0	10