Melbourne Airport Fog and Low Cloud

A WEB-based Melbourne Airport Fog and Low Cloud Forecasting Technique

(developed by Harvey Stern and Kevin Parkyn)

In 1998, a synoptic classification of fog situations at Melbourne Airport was carried out (Stern and Parkyn, 1998). This classification was followed with the development of an aid to the assessment of fog risk at the Airport. The paper describing the aid was presented to the 1999 Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society (Stern and Parkyn, 1999).

Development of the aid follows a similar synoptic approach to that which was employed by Harry Goodhead in the development of his aid to the forecasting of fog onset time at Melbourne Airport (Goodhead, 1978).

In 1999, an aid to the assessment of low cloud risk at Melbourne Airport was developed. The paper describing this aid was presented to the 2000 Annual Conference of the Australian Meteorology and Oceanography Society (Stern and Parkyn, 2000).

Development of the low cloud aid also followed a synoptic approach - similar to that which was employed by Ross Keith in the development of his aid to the forecasting of low cloud at Melbourne Airport (Keith, 1978).

During 2000, the fog and low cloud forecasting aids were combined into a user-friendly WEB-based technique, developed utilising JavaScript. The WEB-based nature of the technique, renders it accessible to a wide range of people who may wish to explore its mode of operation.

In applying the technique (see below), the user inserts a variety of MSL pressure data from tomorrow's 9am prognosis, the current month, and today's 3pm dewpoint and temperature at Melbourne Airport. The aid returns:

The probability of fog during the forthcoming night, based upon whether or not the following day was designated as a fog event.
The probability of low cloud the next morning, based upon whether or not low cloud was observed either at 6am or 9am.
Various synoptic information.

REFERENCES:

Goodhead H M (1978) An objective method for predicting fog and mist at Melbourne Airport. Airmet Conference Papers, Canberra Meteorological Society; Royal Meteorological Society (Australian Branch); Canberra, 1978, pp 27-38.

Keith R (1978) Formation of low cloud at Melbourne Airport in a lee trough. Airmet Conference Papers, Canberra Meteorological Society; Royal Meteorological Society (Australian Branch); Canberra, 1978, pp 39-44.

Stern H and Parkyn K (1998) Synoptic climatology of fog at Melbourne Airport. Abstracts, ANZ Climate Forum, Perth, 1998.

Stern H and Parkyn K (1999) Predicting the likelihood of fog at Melbourne Airport. 8th Conference on aviation, range and aerospace meteorology, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Dallas, Texas, 10-15 Jan., 1999.

Stern H and Parkyn K (2000) Low cloud at Melbourne Airport: A synoptic climatology leading to a forecasting technique. AMOS Annual Conference, Melbourne, 2000.

THE TECHNIQUE

Enter MSL pressure data:
1)	MSL pressure at Melbourne:	2)	MSL pressure at Hay:
3)	MSL pressure at Smithton:	4)	MSL pressure at Gabo Is:
5)	MSL pressure at Mt Gambier:	6)	MSL pressure at Forrest:
Enter other data:
7)	Current Month (1,2...12):	8)	Melbourne Airport 3pm Temperature:
9)	Melbourne Airport 3pm Dewpoint:

Synoptic information:
10)	Direction:	11)	Curvature:
12)	Speed:	13)	Type:
Information about Low Cloud and Fog:
14)	Probability of Low Cloud (%):	15)	Probability of Fog(%):
Other synoptic information:
16)	Cyclonic:	16)	North:
17)	West:	18)	Strength: