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Research on Weather and Climate
by Harvey Stern Ph. D.

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This page presents a listing of Dr Harvey Stern's published research work, including journal papers and conference papers.

RECENT AND CURRENT

.....Stern H (2021) Global Climate Change: Was it Impacted Upon by the COVID-19 Industry Lock-downs? Australia & New Zealand Disaster and Emergency Management Conference, Gold Coast, QLD, 02-03 September 2021......Abstract .....Presentation .....Poster .....Paper

.....Stern H (2020) Managing Risk with a Long-term (Multi-decadal) Global Climate Change Derivatives Trading Facility. Australia & New Zealand Disaster and Emergency Management Conference, Gold Coast, QLD, 01-02 October 2020.

.....Stern H (2020) Towards a Long-Term (multi-decadal) Global Climate Change Derivatives Trading Facility. Eighth Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise. Boston, MA, 12-16 Jan. 2020, Amer. Meteor. Soc. (1) Paper (2) Poster

.....Stern H (2020) Evaluating weather forecasts in terms of two measures of how accurately a set of future events have been predicted - intensity and timing. 11th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy. Boston, MA, 12-16 Jan. 2020, Amer. Meteor. Soc. (1) Paper (2) Presentation

.....Stern H (2019) To what extent have we moved beyond the 'soft bigotry' of low expectations? Presentation to the Australian Association for Research in Education (AARE) Annual Conference 2019, Brisbane, QLD, Dec. 1-5, 2019 (1) Paper

.....Stern H (2019) Automation and the changing role of the forecaster - a comparative evaluation of the skill displayed by current manually derived official forecasts with those automatically generated. Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Annual Meeting - International Conference on Tropical Meteorology and Oceanography (AMOS-ICTMO 2019), Darwin, 11-15 Jun.,2019. (1) Presentation (2) Poster

LESS RECENT

.....Stern H (2019) Pricing financial market instruments to protect against, and to speculate about, climate change - an update. Presented at the 10th Conf. on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy, Phoenix, AZ, 6-10 Jan. 2019, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

.....Stern H (2018) Towards embedding a narrative of high expectations and positive thinking into the policy framework regarding the education of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children. Annual Conference of the Australian Association for Research in Education (AARE), Sydney, 2-6 Dec. 2018. Presentation Abstract

.....Stern H (2018) Abstract Evaluating the accuracy of weather predictions for Melbourne leading up to the heavy rain event of early December 2017. Australia & New Zealand Disaster and Emergency Management Conference, Gold Coast, QLD, 21-22 May 2018. Presentation Paper

.....Stern H (2018) Computational Linguistics and the Communication of Weather Forecasts. 17th Conf. on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences, Austin, TX, 7-11 Jan. 2018, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

.....Stern H (2018) The Dual Function of Financial Market Instruments in an Environment of Climate Change Uncertainty - Protection and Speculation. 9th Conf. on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy, Austin, TX, 7-11 Jan. 2018, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

.....Stern H (2018) Comparing the Skill Displayed by Two Statistical Schemes that Interpret the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System Control Model and the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) Model. Third Symposium on Multi-scale Predictability: Data-model Integration and Uncertainty Quantification for Climate and Earth System Monitoring and Prediction, Austin, TX, 7-11 Jan. 2018, Amer. Meteor. Soc. Poster.

.....Stern H (2017) A new approach for foreigners learning to read Chinese script, where their native tongue is phonetic or quasi-phonetic (Poster). 2017 Annual Conference of the Australian Association for Research in Education (AARE) Conference 2017, Canberra, ACT, Nov. 26-30, 2017.

.....Stern H (2017) ...Download Paper ...Download Poster Developing financial market instruments to protect against what could be dramatically escalating costs, should certain possible future climate change scenarios be realised. Australia & New Zealand Disaster and Emergency Management Conference, Gold Coast, QLD, 22-23 May 2017. ...View Conference Website

.....Stern H (2017) Quantifying How Positional and Timing Errors in the Prediction of Synoptic Scale Systems Extract a Penalty When Verifying Weather Forecasts. 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Seattle, WA, 22-26 Jan. 2017, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

.....Stern H (2017) The Accuracy of Weather Predictions, from the next day to the next season - an illustration from Australia. Second Symposium on Multi-scale Atmospheric Predictability, Seattle, WA, 22-26 Jan. 2017, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

.....Stern H and Deverell, J (2017) The Treaty of Waitangi and Research. Special Symposium on Individual, Social, and Cultural Observations in Weather and Climate Contexts, Seattle, WA, 22-26 Jan. 2017, Amer. Meteor. Soc.
.....Also, accepted for presentation to the session "Traditional weather and Climate Knowledge" to be held as part of the Australian Meteorology and Oceanographic Society/Meteorology Society of New Zealand Annual Conference/Australia New Zealand Climate Forum (Canberra 7-10 Feb., 2017).

.....Stern H (2017) Translating the Words and Numbers of Official Forecasts into Predictions of Amount and Probability of Precipitation. 15th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences, Seattle, WA, 22-26 Jan. 2017, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

.....Stern H (2016) Trends in the accuracy of weather predictions - an update. Australia & New Zealand Disaster and Emergency Management Conference, Gold Coast, QLD, 30-31 May 2016.

.....Stern H (2016) Sub-seasonal variability and prediction: exploring the reliability of forecasts at the weather-climate interface. AMOS National Conference, Minutes to Millennia, Traversing the Scales, Melbourne, VIC, 8-11 February 2016.

.....Stern H and Davidson N E (2016) On the limits of predictability of day to day weather forecasts for Melbourne Australia. Presented at the Special Symposium on Seamless Weather and Climate Prediction � Expectations and Limits of Multi-scale Predictability, New Orleans, LA, 10-14 Jan. 2016, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

.....Stern H and Davidson N E (2015) Increasing forecast accuracy in the context of a multi-�model ensemble framework. AMOS National Conference, Research to Community, Brisbane, QLD, 15-17 July 2015.

.....Stern H and Davidson N E (2015) Trends in the Skill of Weather Prediction at Lead Times of 1 to 14 Days. QJRMS, 2015.

.....Stern H and Davidson N E (2015) Some aspects of the verification of weather forecasts for Melbourne, Australia. Harry R. Glahn Symposium, Phoenix, AZ, 4-8 Jan. 2015, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

.....Stern H and Davidson N E (2013) Trends and fluctuations in skill at forecasting temperature and precipitation, focusing on predictions of extreme events associated with major bushfires and flooding. Science for Services Workshop, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, 15-16 August, 2013, Melbourne, VIC.

.....Morrissey T, Stern H, Dahni R R, Webb L, Whetton P, Heady C and Clarke J (2013) Changing climate zones in south east Australia. Climate Adaptation 2013 [Book of Abstracts], 25�27 June 2013, Sydney, NSW.

.....Stern H and Pollock J (2013) Verifying the accuracy of seasonal climate outlooks - an update. AMOS 19th National Conference [Book of Abstracts], 11-13 February 2013, Melbourne, VIC.

.....Stern H and Davidson N E (2013) Weather predictability at 8 to 14 day lead times. AMOS 19th National Conference [Book of Abstracts], 11-13 February 2013, Melbourne, VIC.

.....Stern H and Dahni R R (2013) The distribution of climate zones across Australia: identifying and explaining changes during the past century. [Book of Abstracts], 11-13 February 2013, Melbourne, VIC.

.....Stern H and Davidson N E (2013) Verifying the accuracy of experimental day-11 to day-14 weather forecasts. Special symposium on advancing weather and climate forecasts. Innovative techniques and applications. 10-15 January 2013, Austin TX.

.....Stern H and Dahni R R (2013) The distribution of climate zones across Australia: identifying and explaining changes during the past century. 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change, 10-15 January 2013, Austin TX.
.....Also refer to: Commissioner for Environment Sustainability Victoria (2012) Foundation Paper One. Climate Change Victoria: The science, our people and our state of play.

.....Stern H (2012) Computer programs with the capacity to read and manipulate data within web documents as a vehicle for the automatic generation of more accurate weather and climate forecasts. 10th Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences, 22-26 January 2012, New Orleans LA.

.....Stern H and Levin B (2011) Did Melbourne forecasts improve as a consequence of GFE implementation? 5th International Verification Methods Workshop, 1 - 7 December 2011, Melbourne, Australia. Poster

.....Stern H and Pollock J (2011) Verifying the accuracy of two decades of seasonal climate outlooks. 5th International Verification Methods Workshop, 1 - 7 December 2011, Melbourne, Australia. Presentation

.....Campbell B, Stern H, Trewin B, and Maguire S (2011) Record rainfall brings unprecedented flooding to Victoria in January 2011. 2011 International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) General Assembly, 28 June - 8 July 2011, Melbourne, Australia.

.....Stern H, Campbell B, Efron M, and Cornall-Reilly J (2011) Towards the effective communication of weather and climate information�harnessing new technologies to integrate material from various sources on the web to generate new products. 9th Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences, 23-27 January 2011, Seattle WA.

.....Campbell B, Stern H, Harris D, Berg G, and Ewing A (2010) Multi-disciplinary collaboration on locusts in Victoria. Australia - New Zealand Climate Forum 2010, 13-15 October 2010, Hobart, Australia.

.....Stern H, Campbell B, Efron M, Cornall-Reilly J, and McBride J (2010) Urbanisation and maximum temperature. Australia - New Zealand Climate Forum 2010, 13-15 October 2010, Hobart, Australia.
.....Also presented at: 3rd Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions, 23-27 January 2011, Seattle WA.
.....Also presented at: Research in urban meteorology and climatology: Current activities and future prospects, 13-15 March 2012, St Kilda, Melbourne.

.....Stern H, Campbell B, Efron M, and Cornall-Reilly J (2010) Climate drivers and the potential for monthly climate outlooks. Australia - New Zealand Climate Forum 2010, 13-15 October 2010, Hobart, Australia.

.....Stern H, Cornall-Reilly J, McBride P and Arenivar J (2010) Utilising Wilsons Promontory weather and climate data to develop a long-term climatology of Deal Island. Australia - New Zealand Climate Forum 2010, 13-15 October 2010, Hobart, Australia.

.....Stern H, Cornall-Reilly J and McBride P (2010) Developing overnight minimum temperature and daytime maximum temperature databases. Australia - New Zealand Climate Forum 2010, 13-15 October 2010, Hobart, Australia.

.....Stern H, Cornall-Reilly J and McBride P (2010) Generating fields of daily and 3-hourly precipitation probability on a high resolution grid, utilising a synoptic typing climatology. Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Annual Conference, Atmosphere, Oceans, Environment and Society, 27-29 January 2010, Canberra, Australia.

.....Stern H, Cornall-Reilly J, McBride P and Dahni J (2010) Climate change illustrated by data from three Indian Ocean islands in the French Southern and Antarctic Territories: New Amsterdam, Kerguelen, and Crozet. 22nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change, 17-21 January 2010, Atlanta, GA. Also presented at Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Annual Conference, Atmosphere, Oceans, Environment and Society, 27-29 January 2010, Canberra, Australia.

.....Stern H, Cornall-Reilly J, McBride P and Fitzgerald A (2010) Victoria�s highest temperature on record, 123.5�F (50.8�C), at Mildura, on 6 January 1906 � but is it valid? 15th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation, 17-21 January 2010, Atlanta, GA. Also presented at Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Annual Conference, Atmosphere, Oceans, Environment and Society, 27-29 January 2010, Canberra, Australia.

.....Stern H, Cornall-Reilly J, McBride P and Fitzgerald A (2010) Melbourne's highest temperature on record, 117�F (47.2�C), on Black Thursday, 6 February 1851�but is it valid? 15th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation, 17-21 January 2010, Atlanta, GA. Also presented at Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Annual Conference, Atmosphere, Oceans, Environment and Society, 27-29 January 2010, Canberra, Australia.

.....Stern H, McBride P, Cornall-Reilly J and Dahni J (2010) Does the poleward retreat of mid-latitude synoptic systems, reflected by a decline in rainfall and an increase in MSL pressure at Melbourne, suggest Australia's Great Artesian Basin as a possible back-up source of water? 24th Conference on Hydrology, 17-21 January 2010, Atlanta, GA. Also presented at Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Annual Conference, Atmosphere, Oceans, Environment and Society, 27-29 January 2010, Canberra, Australia.

.....Stern H, Cornall-Reilly J and McBride P (2010) Bridging the middle ground between medium range weather forecasting and seasonal climate outlooks: two-week day-to-day weather forecasts and monthly climate outlooks. 22nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change, 17-21 January 2010, Atlanta, GA.

.....Stern H, Cornall-Reilly J and McBride P (2010) Avoiding "subprime" carbon - applying lessons learnt from the current financial crisis to the carbon derivatives market. First Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy, 17-21 January 2010, Atlanta, GA.

.....Stern H (2009) Bridging the "middle gound" between medium range weather forecasting and climate prediction: verifying the accuracy of 14 day outlooks. 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, 1�5 June 2009, Omaha, Nebraska.

.....Stern H (2009) Climate change in the sub-antarctic: an illustration from Heard Island. 9th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography, Melbourne, Australia, 9 to 13 February, 2009.

.....Stern H (2009) Combining automated and human weather forecasts: verifying predictions from a 1000-day 'real-time' trial. 9th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography, Melbourne, Australia, 9 to 13 February, 2009.

.....Stern H (2009) Combining automated and human predictions: the results of a 1000-day real-time trial. 25th Conference on Interactive Information and Processing Systems, Phoenix, Arizona, USA 11-15 Jan., 2009.

.....Stern H (2009) Climate change in the sub-antarctic: an illustration from Heard Island. 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change, Phoenix, Arizona, USA 11-15 Jan., 2009.

.....Stern H (2009) Managing business risks arising from seasonal climate variability. 4th Symposium on Policy and Socio-Economic Research, Phoenix, Arizona, USA 11-15 Jan., 2009.

.....Stern H (2008) Managing business risks arising from seasonal climate variability. 3rd Annual Conference of the Australian and New Zealand Chapter of the Society for Risk Analysis, September 30 � October 1, 2008, Canberra.

.....Stern H (2008) The accuracy of forecasts for Melbourne, Australia. Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological Society, August 2008.

.....Stern H (2008) The accuracy of forecasts for Melbourne, Australia. Meteorological Applications, March 2008, 15:65-71.

.....Stern H (2008) The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Synthesis of the Fourth Assessment Report. Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (AMOS) 2008 Annual Conference, Geelong, 29 Jan. - 1 Feb., 2008.

.....Stern H (2008) Generating automated seasonal climate outlooks utilising the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI). Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (AMOS) 2008 Annual Conference, Geelong, 29 Jan. - 1 Feb., 2008.

.....Stern H (2008) Developing sequences of Melbourne rainfall totals and a ten-year forecast utilising Monte-Carlo methods. Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (AMOS) 2008 Annual Conference, Geelong, 29 Jan. - 1 Feb., 2008.

.....Stern H (2008) Improving wind forecasts by mechanically combining predictions. Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (AMOS) 2008 Annual Conference, Geelong, 29 Jan. - 1 Feb., 2008.

.....Stern H (2008) The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: A Synthesis of the Fourth Assessment Report. 20th Conference on Climate Variability and Change, New Orleans, Louisiana, USA 20-24 Jan., 2008.

.....Stern H (2008) Does society benefit from very long range day-to-day weather forecasts? Symposium on Linkages among Societal Benefits, Prediction Systems and Process Studies for 1-14-day Weather Forecasts, New Orleans, Louisiana, USA 23 Jan., 2008.

.....Stern H (2008) Fog and thunderstorm forecasting in Melbourne, Australia. 24th Conference on Interactive Information and Processing Systems, New Orleans, Louisiana, USA 20-24 Jan., 2008.

.....Stern H (2008) The accuracy of forecasts for Melbourne, Australia. 19th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, New Orleans, Louisiana, USA 20-24 Jan., 2008.

.....Stern H (2007) Improving forecasts with mechanically combined predictions, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS), June 2007, 88:850-851.

.....Stern H (2007) Indigenous weather knowledge website. Insite Magazine (Museums Australia - Victoria), May -June 2007, p 4.

.....Stern H (2007) Employing weather derivatives to assess the economic value of high-impact weather forecasts out to ten days - indicating a commercial application. 22nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Park City, Utah, USA 25-29 Jun., 2007.

.....Stern H (2007) The future role of humans in weather forecasting. Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (AMOS) 2007 Annual Conference, Adelaide, 5-8 Feb., 2007.

.....Stern H (2007) The future role of humans in the weather forecasting process - to provide input to a system that mechanically integrates judgmental (human) and automated predictions? 5th Conference on Artificial Intelligence Applications to Environmental Science, San Antonio, Texas, USA 14-18 Jan., 2007.

.....Stern H (2007) Increasing forecast accuracy by mechanically combining human and automated predictions using a knowledge based system. 23rd Conference on Interactive Information and Processing Systems, San Antonio, Texas, USA 14-18 Jan., 2007.

.....Stern H (2006) The application of financial market mathematics to translating climate forecasts into decision making. 3rd International Conference on Climate Impacts Assessments (TICCIA), Cairns, Australia, 24-27 Jul., 2006.
.....Conference Presentation

.....Stern H (2006) Combining human and computer generated weather forecasts using a knowledge based system. 22nd Conference on Interactive Information and Processing Systems, Atlanta, Georgia, USA 27 Jan. - 3 Feb., 2006.

.....Stern H (2005) Climate of Melbourne. In Encyclopedia of Melbourne, Cambridge University Press, 816pp.

.....Stern H (2005) Generating quantitative precipitation forecasts using a knowledge based system. 17th BMRC Modelling Workshop, Bureau of Meteorology,Melbourne, 3-6 October, 2005.

.....Stern H (2005) Establishing the limits of predictability at Melbourne, Australia, using a knowledge based forecasting system and NOAA's long-range NWP model. Aust. Meteor. Mag., 54:203-211.

.....Stern H (2005) Defining cognitive decision making processes in forecasting: a knowledge based system to generate weather graphics. 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, 17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction. American Meteorological Society, Washington, DC, 1-5 August, 2005.

Stern H (2005) Evaluating the cost of protecting against global climate change: options pricing theory and weather derivatives. 16th Conference on Climate Variability and Change, San Diego, California, USA 9-13 Jan., 2005.

.....Stern H (2005) Using a knowledge based forecasting system to establish the limits of predictability. 21st Conference on Interactive Information and Processing Systems, San Diego, California, USA 9-13 Jan., 2005.

.....Stern H (2005) Historical Photographs. Weather observations taken by Royal Navy ships over the Atlantic during World War 2. Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, Vol. 18.

.....Stern H, Moodie N, Cornall-Reilly J, Forster T, and McBride P (2005) Comment on �A long-term trend in Melbourne rainfall?� Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, Vol. 18.

.....Stern H, Moodie N, Cornall-Reilly J, Forster T, and McBride P (2004) Long-term trend in Melbourne rainfall. 16th Australia New Zealand (ANZ) Climate Forum, Lorne, Victoria, Australia, 9-11 Nov., 2004.

.....Stern H (2004) Using a knowledge based system to predict thunderstorms. International Conference on Storms, Storms Science to Disaster Mitigation, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia 5-9 Jul., 2004.

.....Stern H (2004) Using verification data to improve forecasts. Presented at Australian Meteorology and Oceanography Society 2004 Annual Conference, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia 5-9 Jul., 2004.

.....Dawkins S S and Stern H (2004) Managing weather risk during major sporting events: the use of weather derivatives. Presented at 2nd International Workshop on Climate, Tourism and Recreation, Orthodox Academy of Crete, Kolimbari, Crete, Greece, 8-11 Jun., 2004. Published in Berichte des Meteorologischen Institutes der Universitat Freiburg Nr. 12. A. Matzarakis, C. R. de Freitas and D. Scott (Eds.) Advances in Tourism Climatology. Freiburg, November 2004. pp 166-173.

.....Stern H (2004) Incorporating an ensemble forecasting proxy into a knowledge based system. 20th Conference on Interactive Information and Processing Systems, Seattle, Washington, USA 11-15 Jan., 2004.

.....Stern H and Dawkins S S (2004) Weather derivatives as a vehicle to realise the skill of seasonal forecasts. 15th Conference on Global Change and Climate Variations & 14th Conference on Applied Climatology, Seattle, Washington, USA 11-15 Jan., 2004.

.....Lehman G, Tapper N, Fletcher M, Lantry J, Bell I, Longo F, McBride J, Stafford E, Stern H, and Whitaker R (2004) Australian Indigenous weather knowledge. 15th Conference on Global Change and Climate Variations & 14th Conference on Applied Climatology, Seattle, Washington, USA 11-15 Jan., 2004.

.....Dawkins S S and Stern H (2003) Trends and volatility in the accuracy of temperature forecasts. 7th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography, Wellington, New Zealand 24-28 Mar., 2003.

.....Stern H and Dawkins S S (2003) Cashing in on the weather: how agriculture might protect against adverse seasons using weather derivatives. Australia New Zealand Climate Forum: Climate Serving Agriculture, Palmerston North, New Zealand, 19-21 Mar., 2003.

.....Muirhead I, Beard G, Southern B, Stern H, Plummer N, Trewin B, and Smith I (2003) Climate and weather services for agriculture. 15th Australia New Zealand Climate Forum, Palmerston North, New Zealand, 19-21 Mar., 2003.

.....Stern H (2003) Progress on a knowledge-based internet forecasting system. 19th Conference on Interactive Information and Processing Systems, Long Beach, California, USA 9-13 Feb., 2003.

.....Stern H and Dawkins S S (2003) Pricing a financial instrument to guarantee the accuracy of a weather forecast. Third Conference on Artificial Intelligence Applications to Environmental Science, Long Beach, California, USA 9-13 Feb., 2003_____Refer also to At the Annual Meeting Pricing forecast guarantees. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, March 2003, 84:325-326.

.....Stern H (2002) Objective classification of Australian climates. 36th Annual Geography Conference, 15-17 Aug., 2002, Melbourne, Geography Teachers Association of Victoria.

.....Stern H (2002) A knowledge-based system to generate internet weather forecasts. 18th Conference on Interactive Information and Processing Systems, Orlando, Florida, USA 13-17 Jan., 2002.

.....Stern H (2002) Using weather derivatives to mitigate financial risk. Derivatives Week, July 1, 2002.

.....Stern H (2002) Wheat Hedge. Australia Risk, August 2002.

.....Stern H (2001) The application of weather derivatives to mitigate the financial risk of climate variability, extreme precipitation events and extreme temperature events. Symposium on climate variations, the oceans and societal impacts, 81st Annual Meeting, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Albuquerque, New Mexico, 14-19 Jan.,2001.

.....Stern H and Parkyn K (2001) A web-based Melbourne Airport fog and low cloud forecasting technique. 2nd Conference on Fog and Fog Collection, St John's, New Foundland, Canada 15-20 Jul.,2001.

.....Stern H (2001) What price the weather? Outlook fine for temperature derivatives. JASSA (Journal of the Securities Institute of Australia), Autumn 2001, 2-6.

.....Stern H (2001) Weather derivatives. Australia Risk, August 2001.

.....Stern H (2001) The application of weather derivatives to mitigate the financial risk of climate variability and extreme weather events. Aust. Meteor. Mag., Vol 50, September 2001.

.....Davidson NE Stern H Mills G and Leggett T (2001) Forward-backward assimilation, prediction and dynamics for the southeast Australia floods of October 1993. Aust. Meteor. Mag., Vol. 50, September, 2001.

.....Stern H and Parkyn K (2000) Low cloud at Melbourne Airport: A synoptic climatology leading to a forecasting technique. AMOS Annual Conference, Melbourne, 2000.

.....Stern H (2000) A centennial-scale climate-change anomaly over a small region. Preprints, 11th Symposium on Global Change Studies,January 2000, Long Beach, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

.....Stern H de Hoedt G and Ernst J (2000) Classifying the regional climates of the southern hemisphere. Preprints, 6th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology, April 2000, Santiago, Chile, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

.....Stern H de Hoedt G and Ernst J (2000) Objective classification of Australian climates. Aust. Meteor. Mag., 49:87-96.

.....Stern H and Parkyn K (1999) Predicting the likelihood of fog at Melbourne Airport. 8th Conference on aviation, range and aerospace meteorology, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Dallas, Texas, 10-15 Jan., 1999.

.....Stern H de Hoedt G and Ernst J (1999) Objective classification of Australian climates. 8th Conference on aviation, range and aerospace meteorology, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Dallas, Texas, 10-15 Jan., 1999.

.....Stern H (1999) An experiment to establish the limits of our predictive capability for Melbourne. Aust. Met. Mag., 48:159-167.

.....Stern H (1998) An experiment to establish the limits of our predictive capability. Preprints, 14th Conf. on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, Phoenix, January 1998, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

.....Stern H and Parkyn K (1998) Synoptic climatology of fog at Melbourne Airport. Abstracts, ANZ Climate Forum, Perth, 1998.

.....Stern H de Hoedt G and Ernst J (1998) A modification of K�ppen's climate classification scheme. Abstracts, ANZ Climate Forum, Perth, 1998.

.....Stern H (1997) A statistically based approach to nowcasting (0-24 hours) on the mesoscale. AIFS Nowcasting Workshop, 24-26 June 1997, Bureau of Meteorology, Head Office, Melbourne.

.....Stern H (1997) Verification of forecasts from the 1960s to the 1990s. Forecast and Warning Workshop, 15-17 September, 1997, Melbourne. Preprints, pp 67-100.

.....Davidson NE Stern H Mills GA Leggett T (1997) Use of forwards-backwards assimilation in the prediction of the October 1993 floods. Improving short-range forecasting: Abstracts of presentations at the Ninth Annual BMRC Modelling Workshop, 8-10 October 1997, BMRC Research report No. 64, Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, pp 105-106.

.....Stern H (1996) Statistically based weather forecast guidance. Ph. D. Thesis, School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne_____subsequently published as: Stern H (1999) Statistically based weather forecast guidance. Meteorological Study 43, Bureau of Meteorology, Australia.

.....Parkyn K O'loughlin K Stern H and Weston B (1996) The development of meteorological services to agriculture in Victoria. The impact of weather and climate on agriculture: Second Australian Conference on Agricultural Meteorology, , University of Queensland, Brisbane, 1-4 October, 1996. Conference Proceedings, pp 289-292.

.....Stern H (1996 Statistical analysis of Melbourne maximum temperature forecast errors. Preprints, 13th Conf. on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, 21-23 February 1996, San Fransisco, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

.....Dahni RR and Stern H (1995) The development of a generalised UNIX version of the Victorian Regional Office's operational analogue statistics model. BMRC Res. Rep. 47, Bur. Met., Australia, 34 pp.

.....Stern H (1995) The accuracy of the Victorian component of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's seasonal outlook service. Abstracts, 9th Australia New Zealand Climate Forum, Wirrina Cove Resort, South Australia.

.....Stern H (1995) The accuracy of the Victorian component of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's seasonal outlook service. Abstracts, International Scientific Conference on Tropical Oceans Global Atmosphere, 2-7 April 1995, Melbourne, Australia.

.....Stern H (1995) Australian weather. Australian Physical Oceanography Society and Australian Meteorological and Oceanography Society Joint Conference, Lorne, 20-22 February 1995.

.....Noone D and Stern H (1995) Verification of rainfall forecasts from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's Global Assimilation and Prognosis System (GASP). Aust. Meteor. Mag., 44:275-286.

.....Stern H (1994) Enveloping predictor parameters in a regression equation - an alternative to model output statistics (MOS). Abstracts, 10th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, American Meteorological Society, Portland, Oregon.

.....Stern H (1994) Enveloping predictor parameters in a regression equation - an alternative to model output statistics (MOS). Abstracts, 12th Australian Statistical Society Conf., Monash University, Melbourne, Australia, 4-8 July, 1994.

.....Treloar ABA and Stern H (1993) A climatology and synoptic classification of Victorian severe thunderstorms. Fourth International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography, March 29 to April 2, 1993, Hobart, Australia, American Meteorological Society.

.....Stern H (1992) The likelihood of climate change: a methodology to assess the risk and the appropriate defence. Preprints, 5th Int. Meeting on Statistical Climatology, June 22-26, 1992, Toronto, Canada, Amer. Meteor. Soc._____Call for expressions of interest that prompted the above piece of greenhouse research.

.....Stern H (1990) Verification of operational numerical prognoses of cyclogenesis off the southeast coast of Australia. "The Role of SSTs in Numerical Modelling of the Atmosphere": Papers presented at the first BMRC modelling workshop, July 1989, JD Jasper (Editor), pp 108-111.

.....Stern H and Williams M (1989) ENSO and summer fire danger in Victoria, Australia. Proceedings, 1989 Fire Weather Services Conf., Hobart, Tasmania.

.....Stern H and Williams M (1988) ENSO and summer fire danger in Victoria, Australia. Abstracts, Conf. on Tropical Meteorology, Brisbane, 1988.

.....Stern H de la Lande J Dahni RR Jasper JD and Wilson K (1987) Meso-scale forecast guidance at the Victorian Regional Office. Operational forecasting. Papers from the Senior Forecasters' Conference June 1985. Training Note No. 2. Bureau of Meteorology,Australia, pp 175-179.

.....Stern H (1986) A trend in the skill of Australian temperature forecasts. Meteorology Australia, Vol. 4, No. 2.

.....Stern H (1986) A trend in the skill of Australian temperature forecasts. Extended Abstracts, 2nd International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology, American. Meteorological Society, December 1-5, 1986, Wellington, New Zealand.

.....Wilson KJ and Stern H (1985) The Australian summertime cool change. Part 1: Synoptic and sub-synoptic scale aspects. Mon. Wea. Rev., 113:177-201.

.....Stern H (1984) Book Review: The Guinness book of weather facts and feats by Ingrid Holford. Aust. Meteor. Mag, 32:107-108. .....Dahni RR de la Lande J and Stern H (1984) Testing of an operational statistical forecast guidance system. Aust. Meteor. Mag., 32:105-106.

.....Stern H Dahni RR and Jasper JD (1984) A weather state climatology and its application to the variability of various precipitation types. Extended Abstracts Part 1, Conference on Australian Rainfall Variability, Arkaroola, August 1984,Australian Academy of Science and Bureau of Meteorology, 19-22.

.....Stern H Jasper JD Dahni RR and de la Lande J (1984) Frequency distribution of weather phenomena, particularly precipitation type, from data associated with synoptic analogues. Extended Abstracts Part 1, Conference on Australian Rainfall Variability, Arkaroola, August 1984,Australian Academy of Science and Bureau of Meteorology, 31-34.

.....Dahni RR Jasper JD and Stern H (1984) The application of a Markov model to the short-term forecasting of weather state, particularly precipitation. Extended Abstracts Part 2, Conference on Australian Rainfall Variability, Arkaroola, August 1984,Australian Academy of Science and Bureau of Meteorology, 107-110.

.....Stern H Jasper JD and Wilson KJ (1984) Synoptic-scale forcing of "cool-change" events and associated meso-scale temperature variations. Abstracts, International Conference on Meso-scale Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia, February, 1984 (Bureau of Meteorology, Australia), p 7.

.....Jasper JD and Stern H (1983) Objective classification of synoptic pressure patterns over southeast Australia. Proceedings, 2nd International Meeting on Statistical Climatology, Lisbon, Portugal (WMO).

.....Stern H (1982) Automation and operational meteorology - a review. Technical Report 34, Bureau of Meteorology, Australia.

.....Davidson NE and Stern H (1982) Differential thermal advection as a mechanism for development - an illustrative example. Meteorological Note 144, Bureau of Meteorology, Australia. 8 pp.

.....Taylor CM and Stern H (1982) A cold outbreak over Victoria - 31 May 1977. Meteorological Note 130, Bureau of Meteorology, Australia. 36 pp. PART 1. PART 2.

.....Stern H (1982) Automation and operational meteorology. Abstracts, 4th Conference on Science Technology, Melbourne, August 1982 (ANZAAS-AIST).

.....Stern H and Dahni R (1982) An automated system for forecast guidance. Abstracts, 4th Conf. on Science Technology, Melbourne, August 1982 (ANZAAS-AIST).

.....Stern H (1982) Melbourne's highest air temperature. Meteorology Australia, Vol. 2, No. 2, 14-15.

.....de la Lande J Hagger RJ and Stern H (1982) Melbourne forecasts - good or bad? Meteorology Australia, Vol. 2, No. 1, 2.

.....Stern H and Dahni R (1981) Further testing of Stern's (1980) system for automated forecasting guidance. Aust. Meteor. Mag., 29:69-70.

.....Gibbs S and Stern H (1981) Forecasting (Cold Fronts Research Programme). Technical Report 46,Cold Fronts Research Programme. Phase 1: 24 November to 20 December, 1980. Editor: Brian Ryan (Bureau of Meteorology,Australia), pp 17-26.

.....Downey W K Wilson K Gibbs S and Stern H (1981) Broadscale Synoptic Features (Cold Fronts Research Programme). Technical Report 46,Cold Fronts Research Programme. Phase 1: 24 November to 20 December, 1980. Editor: Brian Ryan (Bureau of Meteorology,Australia), pp 75-80.

.....Glasson K Whillas D Stern H Whetton P Abbs D and Meighen P (1981) The Cold Fronts Research Programme in pictures. Meteorology Australia, Vol. 1, No. 1, 25-27.

.....Stern H (1980) A trend in Melbourne's annual extreme minimum air temperature. Royal Meteorological Society Australian Branch Newsletter, Vol. 5, No. 4, 26.

.....Stern H and Skomina T (1980) GMS Enhancement. Royal Meteorological Society Australian Branch Newsletter, Vol. 5, No. 9, 68-72.

.....Stern H (1980) An outbreak of severe thunderstorms accompanied by a tornado at Mortlake, Victoria - 2 November 1976. Meteorological Note 105, Bureau of Meteorology, Australia, 21pp.

.....Stern H (1980) The development of an automated system of forecasting guidance using analogue retrieval techniques. M. Sc. Thesis, Department of Meteorology, University of Melbourne._____Subsequently published as: Stern H (1985) The development of an automated system of forecasting guidance using analogue retrieval techniques. Meteorological Study 35, Bureau of Meteorology, Australia.

.....Stern H (1980) A system for automated forecasting guidance. Aust. Meteor. Mag, 28:141-154.

.....Stern H (1980) An increase in the skill of Australian temperature forecasts. Aust. Meteor. Mag. 28:223-228.

.....Stern H (1979) Trends in the accuracy of Australian temperature forecasts. Proceedings of the Conference on Value of Meteorological Services, Melbourne, 21-23 February, 1979 (Royal Meteorological Society Australian Branch, Economic Society of Australia and New Zealand, and Australian Agricultural Economics Society).

.....Hicks RA Keith RJ and Stern H (1979) The impact of FGGE on forecasting in the Victorian region. Australia-New Zealand GARP Symposium, December 17-19, 1979, Melbourne, Australia (Australian Academy of Science, Bureau of Meteorology, and Royal Meteorological Society Australian Branch).

.....Stern H (1979) The east coast low of late August 1974. Meteorological Note 95, Bureau of Meteorology, Australia, 6 pp.

.....Stern H (1978) An illustration of the spatial variability of Melbourne's rainfall. Royal Meteorological Society Australian Branch Newsletter, No. 28, 32-33.

.....Stern H (1978) Near-record Snowy River flood. Royal Meteorological Society Australian Branch Newsletter, No. 29, 40-43.

.....Stern H (1977) Cold end to May. Royal Meteorological Society Australian Branch Newsletter, No. 16, 34-35.

.....Stern H (1977) Meeting Report: Operational Meteorology by G. H. Sabin. Report on Royal Meteorological Society Australian Branch Talk, 10 October, 1977, Aust. Meteor. Mag, 25:173.

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Research on Weather and Climateby Harvey Stern Ph. D.

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Research on Weather and Climate
by Harvey Stern Ph. D.